Could solo mining beat corporate Bitcoin miners?

Opinion by: Dr. Michael Tabone, elder economist for Cointelegraph

Bitcoin (BTC) mining has agelong been dominated by large-scale concern operations, with nationalist companies similar Marathon Digital, CleanSpark and Riot Platforms controlling important portions of the planetary hashrate. But what if that equilibrium of powerfulness shifted? What if millions of individuals crossed industrialized nations took up location mining?

Home Bitcoin miners

This hypothetical script isn’t arsenic far-fetched arsenic it seems, particularly with the emergence of small, efficient ASICs similar the Bitaxe Gamma 601, FutureBit Apollo, iPollo v1 Mini BTC and Antminer S9 SE/Hyrdo, giving the location miner hash powerfulness ranging from 1.2 to 17 terahashes per second. Some solo location Bitcoin miners person even won blocks, including ones on Jan. 29 and Jan. 30, 2025. So, what if each Bitcoiner successful the United States, oregon adjacent crossed industrialized countries, ran a solo miner? 

If each Bitcoin holder successful the US (approximately 67 million residents) unsocial deployed the lowest hash rate-producing miner from the list, the web would summation astir 80.4 exahashes per 2nd (EH/s), which is simply a important boost to the planetary network, but this wouldn’t outright surpass the firm giants.

Let’s instrumentality this further. If each Bitcoin holder successful industrialized countries, including Europe (31 million), Japan (3.7 million), South Korea (15.6 million) and Australia (approximately 5 million) joined in, the cumulative hashrate would scope an astonishing 146.76 EH/s, importantly boosting the existing planetary hashrate (see Figure 1).

• Global Bitcoin Hashrate (as of Jan. 30, 2025): 835.04 EH/s

• Percentage Change with US Miners: (80.4 EH/s ÷ 835.04 EH/s) × 100 ≈ 9.63%

• Percentage Change with Industrial Countries: (146.76 EH/s ÷ 835.04 EH/s) × 100

≈ 17.57%

Bitcoin web hashrate percent alteration with US and Industrial Countries - Source: Dr. Michael Tabone.

What would this mean for Bitcoin?

Industrial mining companies would person to vie against a genuinely decentralized mining force. With nary azygous entity capable to exert power implicit mining, Bitcoin’s information exemplary would beryllium reinforced against state-level attacks, regulatory seizure or firm collusion. A wide distributed hashrate would destruct concerns over miner-driven censorship and marque Bitcoin immune to authorities crackdowns.

Recent: Monthly Bitcoin accumulation drops arsenic miners combat rising hashrate

Network information would scope unprecedented levels, making 51% attacks financially unfeasible. However, specified an summation successful mining information would besides present important challenges, chiefly successful vigor consumption, accessibility and incentives.

The applicable barriers to wide solo mining

Despite the benefits, respective factors marque it improbable that each Bitcoiner successful an industrialized state would acceptable up a solo mining operation. One of the astir contiguous obstacles is cost. Even small, businesslike miners similar the Bitaxe Gamma travel with an upfront terms tag of $180–$220, which, portion tenable for some, inactive poses a fiscal obstruction for many. 

Electricity costs besides alteration wide by region, making mining infeasible for those successful high-cost vigor markets.

Perhaps the astir important challenge, however, is the debased probability of rewards successful a high-difficulty environment. Bitcoin mining is already a lottery. If millions of caller miners joined, solo mining rewards would go adjacent rarer. Most location miners contiguous usage mining pools to guarantee dependable payouts, but reliance connected ample pools introduces centralization risks.

The spot sourcing problem

Even if request for location mining explodes, determination remains a captious bottleneck successful sourcing chips for ASIC production. The semiconductor manufacture is highly centralized, with lone a fewer foundries (like TSMC and Samsung) susceptible of producing high-efficiency chips.

The occupation is twofold: Priority goes to larger mining companies — Bitmain and MicroBT — and different large players unafraid bulk orders good successful advance. Geopolitical tensions, assets shortages and manufacturing constraints bounds spot production. 

Home mining volition stay supply-constrained without alternate ASIC producers compared to industrial-scale mining operations. Domestic ASIC spot accumulation successful the US could summation under President Donald Trump’s administration, which could impact this dynamic. 

How ASIC prices would respond to wide demand

If millions of radical abruptly wanted ASIC miners, prices would surge.

• Hobbyist ASICs (Bitaxe Gamma, FutureBit Apollo): Prices would summation modestly ($180 → ~$400) since these devices usage comparatively low-end silicon. 

• Industrial ASICs (Antminer S19, Whatsminer M50): Prices could quadruple ($3,000 → $12,000+) owed to spot shortages and precocious demand.

A short-term terms detonation would hap owing to proviso concatenation constraints, but implicit time, manufacturing would standard up to conscionable demand, stabilizing prices astatine a higher but tenable level.

Is this feasible?

While not a literal proposal, this thought experimentation highlights a cardinal reality: The much individuals mining Bitcoin, the stronger and much decentralized the web becomes. Solo Bitcoin mining ensures that mining remains distributed capable that a fewer entities bash not predominate it. 

Bitcoin’s information exemplary thrives connected incentives, and portion firm miners presently play a important role, a surge successful sovereign individuals moving location miners would beryllium a game-changer. If adjacent a fraction of industrialized nations embraced small-scale mining, the web would beryllium acold much decentralized than it is today.

Will Bitcoiners propulsion for broader mining adoption, oregon volition industrial-scale miners proceed to consolidate power? The aboriginal of Bitcoin’s decentralization whitethorn beryllium connected the answer.

Opinion by: Dr. Michael Tabone, elder economist for Cointelegraph.

This nonfiction is for wide accusation purposes and is not intended to beryllium and should not beryllium taken arsenic ineligible oregon concern advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed present are the author’s unsocial and bash not needfully bespeak oregon correspond the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.