2 hours ago
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The crypto marketplace is looking to support the <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/11/bitcoin-crosses-above-101-k-as-xrp-ai-tokens-lead-crypto-rally" target="_blank">bullish momentum ignited by</a> Wednesday's U.S. CPI report, which matched estimates and cleared the way for different <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-cautious-fed-on-track-for-one-last-2024-cut-followed-by-a-slowing-down-in-2025-144848267.html" target="_blank">Federal Reserve complaint chopped adjacent week</a>.
BTC has retaken $100,000 and ether is again eyeing $4,000. A fig of tokens, including AAVE and LINK, are trading 10% higher connected the backmost of accumulation by wallets tied to World Liberty Financial, the task supported by President-elect Donald Trump's family.
The cardinal question present is whether BTC's rally volition beryllium long-lasting. It could be, acknowledgment to bitcoin's accordant terms <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/06/bitcoins-coinbase-premium-jumps-to-two-month-high-as-prices-top-71k-amid-trumps-early-lead" target="_blank">premium connected Coinbase</a> compared with planetary exchanges and healthier leverage levels successful the broader market. The upside whitethorn beryllium capped, however, if the shaper terms scale shows hotter ostentation successful the pipeline.
"Any upside astonishment — and what it means for adjacent Friday's merchandise of the halfway PCE deflator — could beryllium a insignificant dollar positive," ING said.
For cues connected whether $100K is simply a large top, my proposal is simple: erstwhile successful doubt, zoom out.
At $100,000, the annualized three-month BTC futures ground connected large exchanges hovers astir 15%, mode beneath the 30%-plus witnessed astatine the tallness of 2021's bull market. That's a motion the summation is driven by genuine buying successful the spot market, which is longer-lasting than speculative leverage-led bull runs.
Zooming retired besides brings the 2nd fractional of 2021 into the frame. That's erstwhile assemblage kids successful their precocious teens worldwide traded tokens similar DOT, SOL, ETH and different tokens without immoderate know-how of their usage case.
It's besides erstwhile the bull marketplace topped.
Fast guardant to now, and main thoroughfare is soundless connected crypto. Remember what Leonardo Di Caprio said successful The Wolf of Wall Street: "By the clip you read about it successful The Wall Street Journal, it's already excessively late."
If that’s not enough, the $100,000 milestone is besides marked by a emergence successful organization information and <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/12/09/crypto-groups-push-ads-letters-to-oppose-democrat-s-sec-commissioner-nomination" target="_blank">active lobbying</a> by crypto assemblage for favorable regulatory environment.
Speaking of bull marketplace continuation, ether looks primed to determination supra $5,000 arsenic booming on-chain enactment burns much of the token, reducing proviso successful the market, according to CryptoQuant.
"According to ETH's realized price—the mean terms astatine which holders purchased their ETH—the existent precocious bounds for ETH's terms stands astir $5.2k," the steadfast told CoinDesk.
The bullish outlook for ether is mostly seen arsenic bully quality for different altcoins too, although, according to Delphi Digital, the token proviso is "too damn high," acknowledgment to projects similar pump.fun. The resulting demand-supply imbalance makes uncovering the alpha that overmuch much challenging successful the altcoin sector. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Dec. 13: Nasdaq announces its yearly changes to the Nasdaq-100 index. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the world’s largest firm holder of bitcoin, is wide expected to beryllium added.
Dec. 18: CleanSpark (CLSK) Q4 FY 2024 earnings. EPS Est. $-0.18 vs Prev. $-1.02.
Macro
Dec. 12, 8:15 a.m.: The European Central Bank (ECB) announces its <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/activities/mopo/html/index.en.html" target="_blank">monetary argumentation decision</a> (three cardinal involvement rates), followed by a <a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/html/index.en.html" target="_blank">press conference</a> astatine 8:45 a.m.
Deposit installation involvement complaint Est. 3.0% vs Prev. 3.25%.
Main refinancing operations involvement complaint Est. 3.15% vs Prev. 3.4%.
Marginal lending installation involvement complaint Prev. 3.65%.
Dec. 12, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases the <a href="https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf" target="_blank">Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report </a>for the week ended Dec. 7. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 220K vs Prev. 224K.
Dec. 16, 9:45 a.m.: December's <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases" target="_blank">S&P Global Flash US PMI </a>data is released. Composite PMI Prev. 54.9.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
EigenLayer to deploy Rewards v2 upgrade connected Holesky testnet pursuing governance vote. Stakers and operators tin cod aggregate rewards astatine once, redeeming connected transaction costs.
Moonriver's MR64 connection meets quorum and would upgrade tokenomics by redirecting 80% of token ostentation to the treasury to money ecosystem maturation and operations.
Synapse puts up SIP-41 for voting, and proposes a $3.5 cardinal buyback of SYN tokens implicit 3 months. Voting is presently live.
Unlocks
Axie Infinity to unlock 815,000 AXS, worthy $6 cardinal astatine existent prices, astatine 8:10 a.m.
Conferences:
Day 4 of 4: <a href="https://adfw.com/" target="_blank">Abu Dhabi Finance Week 2024</a> (Abu Dhabi, UAE)
Day 4 of 5: <a href="https://www.blockchainweek.lu/" target="_blank">Luxembourg Blockchain Week 2024</a>
Day 1 of 2: <a href="https://www.globalblockchainshow.com/" target="_blank">Global Blockchain Show</a> (Dubai, UAE)
Day 1 of 3: <a href="https://www.taipeiblockchainweek.com/" target="_blank">Taipei Blockchain Week 2024</a> (Taipei, Taiwan)
Dec. 13: <a href="https://www.limitlesscrypto.com/" target="_blank">Limitless Crypto 2024</a> (San Juan, Puerto Rico)
Jan. 13 - 24: <a href="https://web3fest.ch/swiss-web3fest/" target="_blank">Swiss WEB3FEST Winter Edition 2025</a> (Zug, Zurich, St. Moritz, Davos)
Dec. 16 - 17: <a href="https://theblockchainassociation.org/policy-summit-2024/" target="_blank">Blockchain Association’s Policy Summit</a> (Washington D.C.)
Jan. 17: <a href="https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/about/clubs-and-associations/institutions/entrepreneur-association-ea/unchained" target="_blank">Unchained: Blockchain Business Forum 2025</a> (Los Angeles)
Jan. 18: <a href="https://bitcoinday.io/" target="_blank">BitcoinDay</a> (Napes, Florida)
Jan. 20 - 24: <a href="https://www.weforum.org/meetings/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2025/" target="_blank">The 2025 Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum</a> (Davos, Switzerland)
Jan. 21: <a href="https://www.tokenizationsummit.de/eng" target="_blank">Frankfurt Tokenization Conference 2025</a>
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa An AI cause token fashioned aft task money a16z has flipped assemblage person goat (GOAT) to go the astir valued successful its category.
Ai16z, a money based connected AI-based trading signals, has crossed an $850 cardinal marketplace capitalization to flip GOAT, which kickstarted the AI agents assemblage successful October. Holders of AI16Z tokens transportation ideas to "AI Marc," an AI cause modeled aft Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) spouse Marc Andreessen, to power and suggest concern decisions.
The money holds upward of $10 cardinal from 30,000 unsocial “partners,” a feat it has achieved successful a small implicit a period since going live.
The AI16Z terms has surged 77% successful the past 7 days and much than tripled successful the past 14 days, <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ai16z" target="_blank">CoinGecko information shows</a>. That's much than GOAT and different AI cause tokens that relation solely arsenic memes oregon online chatbots.
The enactment shows the market's evolving preferences for projects offering amusement worth and tangible inferior — wherever method projects masquerading arsenic memes whitethorn proceed to pull much request successful the coming months.
“$ai16z flipping $goat is simply a immense awesome for the AI cause sector,” crypto trader @Defi0xJeff wrote successful <a href="https://x.com/Defi0xJeff/status/1866537754798284916" target="_blank">an X post</a>. “It shows however the caller procreation of agents is progressing astatine a overmuch faster gait than the aged guard. This is bullish not conscionable for $ai16z but for the full ecosystem.”
Derivatives Positioning
BTC and ETH implied volatility word structures person steepened alongside terms rises.
Calls person go pricier than puts arsenic BTC's determination backmost supra $100,000 has reduced fears of a protracted pullback.
A marketplace subordinate bought a ample calendar dispersed by buying the $110K onslaught telephone expiring Jan. 3 portion selling the $100K telephone expiring Dec. 27. The strategy aims to nett from the terms decay successful the Jan. 27 expiry portion being protected from an upside volatility explosion.
In ETH, the notable commercialized was a bull telephone dispersed astatine $4,300 and $4,500 strikes.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 3.64% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday to $100,599 (24hrs: +2.05%)
ETH is up 6.9% astatine $3,921.91 (24hrs: +5.41%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 2.14% to 3,905.81 (24hrs: +5.52%)
Ether staking output is down 30 bps to 3.17%
BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.01% (10.95% annualized) connected Binance
DXY is unchanged astatine 106.63
Gold is up 0.49% astatine $2,747.10/oz
Silver is up 1.47% to $33.04/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +1.21% astatine 39,849.14
Hang Seng closed +1.2% astatine 20,397.05
FTSE is up 0.25% astatine 8,322.22
Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged astatine 4,962.71
DJIA closed connected Wednesday -0.22% astatine 44,148.56
S&P 500 closed +0.82% astatine 6,084.19
Nasdaq closed +1.77% astatine 20,034.89
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.6% astatine 25,657.70
S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.55% astatine 2,398.16
U.S. 10-year Treasury is unchanged astatine 4.3%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.16% to 6,082.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.24% to 21,741.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.19% astatine 44,139.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 56.18% (24hrs: -1.20%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.03878 (24hrs: -0.83%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 770 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $61.8
Total Fees: 18.9 BTC/ $1.9M
CME Futures Open Interest: 194,740 BTC
BTC priced successful gold: 37.2 oz
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 10.60%
Bitcoin sitting successful over-the-counter table balances: 431,000 BTC
Basket Performance
Technical Analysis
The ETH/BTC ratio has already scaled the 50-day SMA and is present looking to found a foothold supra the 100-day average.
That would springiness traders much assurance that the brace has bottomed retired and unfastened the doorway for a trial of the 200-day mean astatine 0.044.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed connected Wednesday astatine $411.4 (+9.03%), down 0.75% astatine $408.11 successful pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $313.81 (+3.77%), up 0.63% astatine $315.80 successful pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed astatine C$27.29 (+5.04%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $23.27 (+2.02%), up 0.13% astatine $23.30 successful pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $11.77 (+6.04%), down 0.59% astatine $11.70 successful pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $15.86 (+0.51%), up 0.19% astatine $15.89 successful pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $12.83 (-0.85%), up 0.39% astatine $12.88 successful pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $27.89 (+2.8%), up 3.08% astatine $28.75 successful pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $64.53 (+7.86%), down 0.22% astatine $64.39 successful pre-market.
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily nett inflow: $223.1 million
Cumulative nett inflows: $34.55 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.119 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily nett inflow: $102 million
Cumulative nett inflows: $1.97 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.417 million.
Source: <a href="https://farside.co.uk/btc/" target="_blank">Farside Investors</a>
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The fig of regular transactions connected Aptos, a layer-1 blockchain focused connected information and scalability, has astir tripled to 3.1 cardinal successful 3 months.
The accrued web usage supports the bull lawsuit successful the APT token, which has accrued 46% this year.
While You Were Sleeping
<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2cf6e79c-8512-47cc-ab0b-beddc36fa109" target="_blank">Dollar’s Surge Sparks Biggest Fall successful Emerging Market Currencies successful 2 Years</a> (Financial Times): The U.S. dollar's surge, driven by expectations of President-elect Donald Trump's policies, and economical struggles successful emerging markets, has sparked the largest sell-off successful their currencies since Sept. 2022.
<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/12/less-than-1-of-microsoft-shareholders-voted-for-btc-proposal" target="_blank">Less than 1% of Microsoft Shareholders Voted for BTC Proposal</a> (CoinDesk): Only 0.55% of Microsoft shareholders backed a proposal, advocated by the National Center for Public Policy Research, to see bitcoin successful the company's equilibrium sheet.
<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/12/12/vancouver-city-council-passes-pro-bitcoin-motion-citing-fiat-challenges" target="_blank">Vancouver City Council Passes Pro-Bitcoin Motion Citing Fiat Challenges</a> (CoinDesk): Vancouver's metropolis assembly approved a mayoral question to research utilizing bitcoin arsenic a treasury plus and for paying fees and taxes.
<a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/12/link-aave-rocket-30-as-trump-s-world-liberty-financial-buys-2-m-tokens" target="_blank">LINK, AAVE Rocket 30% arsenic Trump’s World Liberty Financial Buys $2M Tokens</a> (CoinDesk): Crypto wallets associated with the Trump-supported World Liberty Financial task reportedly purchased millions successful ETH, AAVE, and LINK tokens connected Thursday, driving up their prices significantly.
<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korean-president-yoon-vows-fight-end-2024-12-12/" target="_blank">South Korean President Yoon Vows to ‘Fight to the End’</a> (Reuters): South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, facing a 2nd impeachment ballot connected Saturday, defended his Dec. 3 martial instrumentality declaration arsenic an effort to prevention democracy.
<a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/inflation-prices-trump-president-186fb5cc" target="_blank">Inflation Is Stuck. Can Trump Unstick It?</a> (The Wall Street Journal): Despite immoderate easing, the U.S. year-over-year ostentation complaint stands astatine 2.7%, with economists informing that President-elect Donald Trump's planned tariffs and migration restrictions could further thrust up prices.
In the Ether
English (US) 