1 month ago
By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Risk-assets person a outpouring successful their step. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading supra $87,000 and the S&P 500 reclaimed its 200-day moving mean for the archetypal clip since March 10.
However, volatility is expected to emergence up of Friday’s quarterly options expiry, with implicit $12 cardinal successful notional worth acceptable to expire connected Deribit with a max symptom terms astatine $85,000. Most unfastened interest, meantime, centers astir $100,000 telephone options.
President Trump is deploying caller commercialized warfare tactics, introducing “secondary tariffs” that could enforce a 25% levy connected immoderate federation buying lipid and state from Venezuela, according to Bloomberg.
He besides signaled that portion immoderate countries whitethorn receive exemptions connected tariffs, additional tariffs connected autos, lumber and semiconductor chips volition beryllium announced successful the coming days. These measures, portion of the president's broader “America First” economical agenda, could instrumentality effect arsenic aboriginal arsenic April 2.
Bloomberg notes that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent continues to advocator for tariffs, framing them arsenic a strategical instrumentality that serves aggregate purposes: providing leverage successful negotiations, generating authorities gross and rebalancing commercialized successful favour of the U.S.
Meanwhile, successful the U.K., Chancellor Rachel Reeves is preparing for Wednesday's Spring Statement amid rising enslaved yields that endanger to complicate fiscal planning. Early reports bespeak she volition suggest civil work occupation cuts portion ruling retired further taxation increases. Stay Alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
March 25: The Mimir upgrade goes unrecorded connected Chromia (CHR) mainnet.
March 25, 11:00 p.m.: Celo (CELO) mainnet’s hard fork web upgrade astatine artifact tallness 31056500 transitions it from an L1 to an Ethereum L2.
March 26: Circle’s stablecoin, USDC, starts trading connected Japan-based crypto speech SBI VC Trade.
March 26, 3:00 a.m.: Cronos (CRO) zkEVM v26 mainnet upgrade introduces Smart Account SSO for simpler logins and lays groundwork for the ZK Gateway to heighten cross-chain interoperability.
March 26, 10:37 a.m.: Ethereum’s Hoodi testnet volition activate the Pectra hard fork web upgrade astatine epoch 2048.
March 27: Walrus (WAL) mainnet goes live.
April 1: Metaplanet (TYO: 3350) 10-for-1 stock split becomes effective.
Macro
March 26, 3:00 a.m.: The U.K.’s Office for National Statistics releases February user terms ostentation data.
Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.4%
Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.7%
Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. -0.1%
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 3%
March 26: The U.K.’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) releases its latest Fiscal and Economic Outlook. Later successful the day, the Chancellor of the Exchequer volition contiguous her Spring Statement to the House of Commons.
March 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases (Final) Q4 GDP data.
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 3.1%
Core PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.2%
PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 1.5%
Real Consumer Spending QoQ Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 3.7%
March 27, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment security information for the week ended March 22.
Initial Jobless Claims Est. 225K vs. Prev. 223K
March 27, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Senate Banking Committee volition clasp a proceeding connected the information of Paul Atkins to the seat of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Livesteam link.
March 27, 3:00 p.m.: Mexico's cardinal slope announces its involvement complaint decision.
Target Rate Est. 9% vs. Prev. 9.5%
April 2, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs program goes live.
Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
March 27: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market, $-0.02
March 28: Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY), pre-market, C$0.38
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Uniswap DAO is discussing the recognition of the canonical deployment of Uniswap v2 and v3 connected Soneium.
Floki DAO is voting connected removing the 0.3% transaction fee charged erstwhile users bargain oregon merchantability thought the TokenFi astute declaration pursuing a petition from a “very important and strategically important partner.”
Sky DAO is discussing redirecting the Boost program’s fund to promote USDS connected non-Ethereum networks and stop Sky token buybacks to alternatively nonstop surplus toward Sky takers.
March 26, 1 p.m.: Livepeer (LPT) to clasp an Open Ecosystem Call.
Unlocks
March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating proviso worthy $28.47 million.
April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating proviso worthy $154.07 million.
April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.05% of its circulating proviso worthy $13.43 million.
April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating proviso worthy $141.11 million.
April 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlock 0.59% of its circulating proviso worthy $11.82 million.
April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating proviso worthy $22.82 million.
Token Listings
March 25: Particle Network (PARTI) to database connected Binance, Gate.io, OKX, KuCoin, HashKey, Bitrue, Bitget, XT.com and others.
March 27: Walrus (WAL) to database connected Gate.io and Bybit.
March 28: Binance to delist Aergo (AERGO).
March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.
Conferences
CoinDesk's Consensus is taking spot in Toronto connected May 14-16. Use codification DAYBOOK and prevention 15% connected passes.
Day 2 of 3: Merge Buenos Aires
Day 1 of 2: PAY360 2025 (London)
Day 1 of 3: Mining Disrupt (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
Day 1 of 4: Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference 2025 (Boao, China)
March 26: Crypto Assets Conference (Frankfurt)
March 26: DC Blockchain Summit 2025 (Washington)
March 26-28: Real World Crypto Symposium 2025 (Sofia, Bulgaria)
March 27: Building Blocks (Tel Aviv)
March 27: Digital Euro Conference 2025 (Frankfurt)
March 27: Web3 Banking Symposium 2.0 (Lugano, Switzerland)
March 27: WIKI Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2025
March 27-28: Money Motion 2025 (Zagreb, Croatia)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
MOG jumped 25% arsenic memecoins caught a bid connected bitcoin and ether demand.
The cat-themed civilization coin tends to surge whenever ETH sees buying demand, functioning arsenic a "beta bet" connected the Ethereum blockchain, wherever it is based.
Monitoring the highest performing memecoins during a marketplace betterment tin beryllium profitable for traders, providing cues connected which tokens thin to outperform erstwhile determination are gains successful large cryptocurrencies.
Cronos' CRO caught flak from salient on-chain sleuth ZachXBT aft Trump Media signed a non-binding statement with intimately related Crypto.com to motorboat U.S. crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the token done Crypto.com’s broker-dealer, Foris Capital US.
“CRO is nary antithetic from a scam,” ZachXBT said successful a tweet, referring to a governance connection past week that accrued CRO proviso by much than 200%.
The contentious connection drew to a adjacent Monday past week, with the assemblage voting successful favour of expanding token proviso from 30 cardinal CRO to 100 cardinal CRO implicit 10 years. The ballot was influenced by a tiny radical of ample and influential token holders flipped the effect with a 3.2 cardinal token plaything conscionable earlier the conclusion, drafting reddish flags among marketplace watchers.
Derivatives Positioning
CME futures ground for BTC and ETH remains low, betwixt 4% and 7%, indicating a deficiency of willingness among organization players to deploy superior contempt the caller marketplace stability.
BTC perpetual backing rates dip beneath zero, hinting astatine a increasing penchant for bearish abbreviated positions connected offshore exchanges.
XMR, HBAR, NEAR, BNB, SUI and AVAX boast affirmative 24-hour cumulative measurement deltas successful a motion of nett buying successful perpetual futures markets.
Short-dated BTC and ETH options listed connected Deribit proceed to amusement enactment skews. The $100K telephone remains the astir fashionable enactment up of the quarterly expiry.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 1.12% from 4 p.m. ET Monday astatine $86,889.75 (24hrs: -0.77%)
ETH is down 1.01% astatine $2,064.85 (24hrs: -1.31%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 0.35% astatine 2,782.83 (24hrs: -0.55%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 6 bps astatine 2.97%
BTC backing complaint is astatine -0.003% (-1.141% annualized) connected Binance
DXY is unchanged astatine 104.24
Gold is up 0.38% astatine $3,024.40/oz
Silver is up 1.38% astatine $33.72/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +0.46% astatine 37,780.54
Hang Seng closed -2.35% astatine 23,344.25
FTSE is up 0.4% astatine 8,672.92
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.52% astatine 5,444.05
DJIA closed connected Monday +1.42 astatine 42,583.32
S&P 500 closed +1.76 astatine 5,767.57
Nasdaq closed +2.27% astatine 18,188.59
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +1.34% astatine 25,304.10
S&P 40 Latin America closed -0.62% astatine 2,455.50
U.S. 10-year Treasury complaint is up 1 bps astatine 4.36%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.18% astatine 5,804.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.33% astatine 20,307.25
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.15% astatine 42,833.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 61.44 (-0.20%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02375 (-0.17%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 829 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $49.32
Total Fees: 6.17 BTC / $540,108
CME Futures Open Interest: 146,560 BTC
BTC priced successful gold: 28.8 oz
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 8.19%
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin is rising toward the trendline that characterizes the crisp terms driblet from grounds highs.
A determination done the trendline absorption would unfastened doors to absorption astatine $100K, followed by grounds highs.
The strengthening of the upward momentum, signaled by the rising MACD histogram, favors the trendline breakout.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Monday astatine $335.72 (+10.43%), down 0.94% astatine $332.58 successful pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $203.04 (+6.94%), down 1.11% astatine $200.79
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed astatine C$19.30 (+7.58%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $14.61 (+18.01%), down 1.71% astatine $14.36
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $8.72 (+9.69%), down 0.8% astatine $8.65
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $9.31 (+9.4%), down 0.97% astatine $9.22
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $8.79 (+18.15%), down 1.48% astatine $8.66
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $16.31 (+10.2%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $42.88 (+9.33%)
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $52.64 (+6.3%), up 3.84% astatine $54.66
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily nett flow: $84.2 million
Cumulative nett flows: $36.22 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1,117 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily nett flow: $0 million
Cumulative nett flows: $2.43 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.419 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The illustration shows the interaction of the Ethereum Foundation's ether income connected the token's spot-market price.
Sales successful excess of 15,000 ETH thin to determination prices.
While You Were Sleeping
BlackRock to List Bitcoin ETP successful Europe successful First Crypto Foray Outside U.S. (CoinDesk): The plus absorption giant’s iShares Bitcoin ETP listed Tuesday connected Xetra, Euronext Paris and Amsterdam with a 0.15% interest done year-end.
Binance Wallet Suspends Staff Member Over Front-Running Allegations (CoinDesk): The staffer allegedly utilized confidential accusation from their erstwhile concern improvement relation astatine BNB Chain to front-run a token launch. Binance's probe recovered nary grounds of insider trading.
Circle to Launch USDC successful Japan connected March 26 With SBI Partnership (CoinDesk): Japan-based crypto speech SBI VC Trade, which got regulatory support connected March 4 to database USDC, volition commencement trading of the stablecoin connected March 26.
China Is Suffering Its Own ‘China Shock’ (Financial Times): China has mislaid 7.4 cardinal mill jobs since 2011 arsenic rising wages and lower-cost rivals similar Vietnam and Indonesia erode its export edge, fueling interest implicit a emergence successful semipermanent unemployment.
China’s Vice Premier Meets Blackstone Chairman successful Beijing (Reuters): He Lifeng said his state welcomed much U.S.-funded enterprises and semipermanent capital, which helium said would lend to the steadfast improvement of U.S.–China economical relations.
Boom successful Uranium Stocks Fizzles arsenic Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Build (Bloomberg): Uranium-related stocks person fallen successful 2025 amid prospects of caller U.S. tariffs connected Canada and looser Russian sanctions, some large sources of the atomic fuel.
In the Ether
English (US) 