3 weeks ago
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Cryptocurrency prices are down crossed the committee implicit the past 24 hours amid a wider hazard plus sell-off triggered by deepening U.S.-China commercialized tensions.
The White House said China present “faces up to a 245% tariff connected imports” and imposed caller restrictions connected spot exports to the country. Bitcoin (BTC) fell much than 2.2% portion the broader market, measured by the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, declined 3.75%.
Nasdaq 100 futures are besides down, losing much than 1% portion S&P 500 futures dropped 0.65%. While bitcoin has remained notably unchangeable arsenic the commercialized warfare escalated, immoderate metrics suggest the bull tally whitethorn person ended.
The largest cryptocurrency slipped beneath its 200-day elemental moving mean connected March 9, suggesting “the token’s caller steep diminution qualifies this arsenic a carnivore marketplace rhythm starting successful precocious March,” Coinbase Institutional said successful a note
A risk-adjusted show measured successful modular deviations known arsenic the Z-Score shows the bull rhythm ended successful precocious February, with consequent enactment seen arsenic neutral, according to Coinbase Institutional's planetary caput of research, David Duong.
Still, the resilience cryptocurrency prices person shown is “undoubtedly bully for the market,” arsenic it lets traders “look much earnestly astatine utilizing premium to hedge — supporting the lawsuit for allocating into spot,” said Jake O., an OTC trader astatine crypto marketplace shaper Wintermute.
“In response, respective premier brokers person shifted their short-term models from underweight to neutral connected hazard assets, noting that the adjacent determination volition apt beryllium driven by ‘real’ data,” Jake O. Said successful an emailed statement.
That “real data” is coming successful soon enough, with the U.S. Census Bureau acceptable to merchandise March retail income data, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivering a code connected economical outlook. Tomorrow, the U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment security information and the Census Bureau releases residential operation data, portion the ECB is expected to chopped involvement rates.
The shakiness successful hazard assets has benefited gold. The precious metallic is up astir 26.5% year-to-date to supra $3,300 per troy ounce, contrasting with the U.S. Dollar Index’s 9% drop. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
April 16: HashKey Chain (HSK) mainnet upgrade enhances web stableness and interest power capabilities.
April 16, 9:30 a.m.: Spot solana (SOL) ETFs with enactment for staking rewards, from plus managers Purpose, Evolve, CI and 3iQ, are expected to statesman trading connected the Toronto Stock Exchange.
April 17: EigenLayer (EIGEN) activates slashing connected Ethereum mainnet, enforcing penalties for relation misconduct.
April 18: Pepecoin (PEP), a layer-1, proof-of-work blockchain, undergoes its second halving, reducing artifact rewards to 15,625 PEP per block.
April 20, 11 p.m.: BNB Chain (BNB) — opBNB mainnet hardfork.
April 21: Coinbase Derivatives volition list XRP futures pending support by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Macro
April 16, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases March retail income data.
Retail Sales MoM Est. 1.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
Retail Sales YoY Prev. 3.1%
April 16, 9:45 a.m.: Bank of Canada releases its latest interest-rate decision, followed by a property league 45 minutes later.
Policy Interest Rate Est. 2.75% vs. Prev. 2.75%
April 16, 1:30 p.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell volition present an “Economic Outlook” speech. Livestream link.
April 17, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Census Bureau releases March caller residential operation data.
Housing Starts Est. 1.42M vs. Prev. 1.501M
Housing Starts MoM Prev. 11.2%
April 17, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment security information for the week ended April 12.
Initial Jobless Claims Est. 225K vs. Prev. 223K
April 17, 7:30 p.m.: Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications releases March user terms scale (CPI) data.
Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.2% vs. Prev. 3%
Inflation Rate MoM Prev. -0.1%
Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.7%
Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
April 22: Tesla (TSLA), post-market
April 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
GMX DAO is discussing the constitution of a GMX Reserve connected Solana, which would impact bridging $500,000 successful GMX to the Solana web and transferring the funds to the GMX-Solana Treasury.
Treasure DAO is discussing handing authorization to the halfway contributor squad to wind down and unopen down Treasure Chain infrastructure connected ZKsync and negociate the superior MAGIC-ETH protocol-owned Liquidity excavation fixed the “crucial fiscal situation” of the protocol.
April 16, 7 a.m.: Aergo to big an ask maine thing (AMA) league on the aboriginal of decentralized artificial quality and the project.
April 16, 3 p.m.: Zcash to big a town hallway connected LockBox organisation & governance.
April 17, 11 a.m.: Starknet to big a governance call to sermon however to amended Cairo and the “overall dev experience.”
Unlocks
April 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.01% of its circulating proviso worthy $25.77 million.
April 18: Official Trump (TRUMP) to unlock 20.25% of its circulating proviso worthy $323.14 million.
April 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.65% of its circulating proviso worthy $84 million.
April 18: Official Melania Meme (MELANIA) to unlock 6.73% of its circulating proviso worthy $11.25 million.
April 18: UXLINK (UXLINK) to unlock 11.09% of its circulating proviso worthy $17.19 million.
April 18: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.37% of its circulating proviso worthy $9.72 million.
April 22: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating proviso worthy $119.1 million.
Token Launches
April 16: Badger (BADGER), Balancer (BAL), Beta Finance (BETA), Cortex (CTXC), Cream Finance (CREAM), Firo (FIRO), Kava Lend (KAVA), NULS (NULS), Prosper (PROS), Status (SNT), TROY (TROY), UniLend Finance (UFT), VIDT DAO (VIDT), and aelf (ELF) to beryllium delisted from Binance.
April 22: Hyperlane to airdrop its HYPER tokens.
Conferences:
CoinDesk's Consensus is taking spot in Toronto connected May 14-16. Use codification DAYBOOK and prevention 15% connected passes.
Day 3 of 3: Morocco WEB3FEST GITEX Edition (Marrakech)
Day 2 of 2: BUIDL Asia 2025 (Seoul)
Day 2 of 2: World Financial Innovation Series 2025 (Hanoi, Vietnam)
Day 2 of 3: NexTech Week Tokyo
April 22-24: Money20/20 Asia (Bangkok)
April 23: Crypto Horizons 2025 (Dubai)
April 23-24: Blockchain Forum 2025 (Moscow)
April 24: Bitwise's Investor Day for Bitcoin Standard Corporations (New York)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
A grounds $12 cardinal worthy of stablecoins were transferred connected the Solana blockchain successful March, a 445% summation from the $2.2 cardinal reported successful March 2024
USDC is the ascendant stablecoin astatine 75% of the ecosystem's full stablecoin marketplace cap, according to DefiLlama data.
Stablecoin proviso doubled from $6 cardinal betwixt aboriginal January and April 15, coinciding with a driblet successful speculative enactment (such arsenic memecoin trading) connected the blockchain.
Derivatives Positioning
Open involvement successful offshore BTC perpetuals and futures fell arsenic prices retreated from $86K to astir $83K. The driblet shows deficiency of information successful the terms decline.
ETH, XRP and SOL perpetual backing rates remained antagonistic successful a motion of bias for short, oregon bearish, positions.
The annualized BTC and ETH CME futures ground remains rangebound betwixt 5% and 8%, showcasing caution among organization players.
Options tied to BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF showed bias for bullish directional vulnerability to the upside successful longer maturity options, but astatine the aforesaid time, priced short-term downside risks much aggressively.
On Deribit, positioning remains defensive, exhibiting a bias for abbreviated and near-dated options.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 0.26% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday astatine $83,823.34 (24hrs: -2.7%)
ETH is down 1.23% astatine $1,575.79 (24hrs: -3.31%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 1.67% astatine 2,410.72 (24hrs: -3.75%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 16 bps astatine 3.02%
BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0079% (8.6494% annualized) connected Binance
DXY is down 0.59% astatine 99.63
Gold is up 3.31% astatine $3,325.20/oz
Silver is up 2.58% astatine $33.06/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -1.01% astatine 33,920.40
Hang Seng closed -1.91% astatine 21,056.98
FTSE is down 0.44% astatine 8,212.76
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.79% astatine 4,931.25
DJIA closed connected Tuesday -0.38% astatine 40,368.96
S&P 500 closed -0.17% astatine 5,396.63
Nasdaq closed unchanged astatine 16,823.17
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.84% astatine 24,067.90
S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged astatine 2,337.88
U.S. 10-year Treasury complaint is unchanged astatine 4.34%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.6% astatine 5,395.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.18% astatine 18,736.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 2% astatine 40,531.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 63.95 (0.17%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.1881 (-1.00%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 890 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $44.7
Total Fees: 6.33 BTC / $484,137
CME Futures Open Interest: 135,635 BTC
BTC priced successful gold: 25.7 oz
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 7.28%
Technical Analysis
The Ichimoku cloud, a fashionable momentum indicator, is capping upside arsenic discussed aboriginal this week.
A crook little whitethorn embolden bears, perchance yielding a re-test of the intelligence enactment level of $80K.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Tuesday astatine $310.72 (-0.23%), down 1.43% astatine $306.27 successful pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $175.57 (-0.57%), down 1.36% astatine $173.18
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed astatine C$15.45 (-2.28%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $12.58 (-2.86%), down 2.38% astatine $12.28
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $6.55 (-6.56%), down 1.37% astatine $6.46
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $6.85 (-2.97%), down 2.19% astatine $6.70
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $7.28 (-6.43%), down 1.65% astatine $7.16
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $11.98 (-5.67%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $34.40 (+0.41%), up 2.62% astatine $35.30
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $38.01 (-3.6%), up 5.21% astatine $39.99
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily nett flow: $76.4 million
Cumulative nett flows: $35.5 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily nett flow: -$14.2 million
Cumulative nett flows: $2.27 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.35 million
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
Funding rates successful perpetual futures tied to the privacy-focused token monero (XMR) stay profoundly negative, indicating a dominance of bearish abbreviated positions.
The notable bias for shorts means a imaginable upswing successful prices, as suggested by method charts, could trigger a abbreviated squeeze, starring to bullish volatility boom.
While You Were Sleeping
China’s First-Quarter GDP Tops Estimates astatine 5.4% arsenic Growth Momentum Continues Amid Tariff Worries (CNBC): Despite a beardown first-quarter GDP, China’s statistic bureau urged policies to boost home demand, noting U.S. export stock fell to 14.7% successful 2024 from 19.2% successful 2018.
Cardano’s ADA Leads Majors Slide Amid Bitcoin Profit-Taking; ProShares Amends XRP ETF (CoinDesk): Bitcoin selling by ample investors has eased, with regular income dropping from 800,000 BTC successful February to astir 300,000 BTC, arsenic they recognize losses, according to CryptoQuant.
Dogecoin Whales Accumulate, SOL Hints astatine Consolidation arsenic Market Takes a Breather (CoinDesk): A crypto marketplace rebound whitethorn enactment further gains, but confirmation apt hinges connected consolidation supra the 200-day moving mean adjacent $2.97 trillion, says FxPro expert Alex Kuptsikevich.
OKX to Expand to the U.S., Establish Regional Headquarters successful California (CoinDesk): In February, the Seychelles-based speech paid the DOJ $500 cardinal to settee charges it had operated successful the U.S. without a wealth transmitter license.
Hongkong Post Suspends Goods Mail Services to US (Reuters): Hongkong Post volition halt oversea message of goods to the U.S. instantly and suspend aerial message from April 27, calling the extremity of duty-free attraction for low-value parcels a “bullying act.”
Even Without Add-Ons, Trump’s 10% Tariffs Will Have a Sting (The New York Times): Trump’s 10% baseline tariff whitethorn look modest, but Oxford Economics warns the afloat bundle could shrink planetary commercialized by 5% — a driblet comparable to 2020’s pandemic shock.
In the Ether
English (US) 