Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Tops $110K as Jobs Report Looms

9 hours ago

Crypto Daybook Americas volition not beryllium published connected Friday owing to the July 4 holiday. It volition instrumentality connected Monday. Wishing our U.S. readers a blessed Independence Day.

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC deed $110,000 for the archetypal clip since June 11 and is present wrong striking region of its $112,000 all-time high, which was recorded connected May 22.

Bitcoin dominance has slipped from its June 22 precocious of conscionable implicit 66% and present stands a spot supra 65%. This fig reflects bitcoin’s marketplace capitalization comparative to the full crypto market. Currently, bitcoin boasts a marketplace headdress of $2.2 trillion.

Today's large economical lawsuit is the merchandise of the U.S. jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to person accrued by 110,000 past month, the smallest summation successful 4 months and a slowdown from May’s summation of 139,000. The unemployment complaint is projected to emergence to 4.3%, up from 4.2%. If this fig materializes, it would beryllium the highest unemployment complaint since October 2021. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment complaint has held wrong a choky scope betwixt 4% and 4.2%.

The study comes a time aboriginal due to the fact that of the July 4 vacation weekend, which is apt to spot reduced trading volumes. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq volition adjacent astatine 1 p.m. contiguous and enslaved markets astatine 2 p.m. Markets volition stay closed connected Friday, July 4.

Ahead of the release, markets were pricing successful a 75% accidental that the Federal Reserve would support involvement rates dependable astatine 4.25%-4.50% during its gathering scheduled for July 30.

“On-chain flows stay stable, suggesting that large players are awaiting further signals from this week’s Non-Farm Payrolls and Initial Jobless Claims data," HTX Research wrote. "Structurally, the marketplace is navigating betwixt 2 imaginable scenarios."

If labour information weakens, a confirmed September complaint chopped could ignite a renewed rally successful BTC, HTX said. On the different hand, if NFP surprises to the upside, a interruption beneath $104,000 could trigger a method correction.

"Overall, bitcoin present finds itself astatine a important inflection point, shaped by renewed superior inflows, rising speculative interest, and diverging macroeconomic expectations. The coming days could beryllium pivotal for confirming the adjacent large inclination successful the market". Stay alert!

What to Watch

Crypto
- July 15: Lynq is expected to launch its real-time, interest-bearing integer plus colony web for institutions. Built connected Avalanche’s layer-1 blockchain and powered by Arca’s tokenized U.S. Treasury money shares, Lynq enables instant settlement, continuous output accrual and improved superior efficiency.
Macro
- July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases June employment data.
  - Non Farm Payrolls Est. 110K vs. Prev. 139K
  - Unemployment Rate Est. 4.3% vs. Prev. 4.2%
  - Government Payrolls Prev. -1K
  - Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -5K vs. Prev. -8K
- July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment security information for the week ended June 28.
  - Initial Jobless Claims Est. 240K vs. Prev. 236K
  - Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1960K vs. Prev. 1974K
- July 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Brazil information connected manufacturing and services activity.
  - Composite PMI Prev. 49.1
  - Services PMI Prev. 49.6
- July 3, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) June U.S. information connected manufacturing and services activity.
  - Composite PMI Est. 52.8 vs. Prev. 53
  - Services PMI Est. 53.1 vs. Prev. 53.7
- July 3, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases June U.S. services assemblage data.
  - Services PMI Est. 50.5 vs. Prev. 49.9
- July 4, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases May shaper terms ostentation data.
  - PPI MoM Prev. -0.37%
  - PPI YoY Prev. 7.27%
- July 4, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases June user assurance data.
  - Consumer Confidence Prev. 46.7
- July 4, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Canada information connected manufacturing and services activity.
  - Composite PMI Prev. 45.5
  - Services PMI Prev. 45.6
- July 9, 12:01 a.m. — Deadline for the European Union and different U.S. trading partners to finalize deals to debar reinstatement of reciprocal tariffs connected imports.
- July 9, 10 a.m.: U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds a hybrid proceeding titled “From Wall Street to Web3: Building Tomorrow’s Digital Asset Markets” with CEOs of Blockchain Association, Chainalysis, Paradigm, and Ripple testifying. Livestream link.
Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
- None successful the adjacent future.

Token Events

Governance votes & calls
- Arbitrum DAO is voting connected lowering the law quorum threshold from 5% to 4.5% of votable tokens. This aims to lucifer decreased elector information and assistance well-supported proposals walk much easily, without affecting non-constitutional proposals, which stay astatine a 3% quorum. Voting ends July 4.
- Compound DAO is voting on invoking the aboriginal termination clause of its 2025 information concern with OpenZeppelin, giving the required 60-day announcement and paving the mode for a ceremonial RFP process managed by the Compound Foundation connected behalf of the DAO.Voting ends July 7.
- Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded outgo card to “to span the spread betwixt integer assets successful the Polkadot ecosystem and mundane spending.” Voting ends July 9.
- July 3, 11 a.m.: Zilliqa to big an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
- July 4, 10:30 a.m.: Moca Network to host a session connected ‘What Makes Moca Chain Different?’ connected Binance Live.
Unlocks
- July 11: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.31% of its circulating proviso worthy $11.43 million.
- July 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.76% of its circulating proviso worthy $54.63 million.
- July 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating proviso worthy $15.59 million.
- July 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1% of its circulating proviso worthy $15.76 million.
- July 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating proviso worthy $32.94 million.
Token Launches
- July 3: Impossible Cloud Network Token (ICNT) to beryllium listed connected Binnace, Bybit, Bitget, Gate.io KuCoin, and others.
- July 4: Biswap (BSW), Stella (ALPHA), Komodo (KMD), LeverFi (LEVER), and LTO Network (LTO) to beryllium delisted from Binance.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known arsenic State of Crypto) is simply a one-day boutique lawsuit held successful Washington connected Sept. 10 that allows wide counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to conscionable with nationalist officials liable for crypto authorities and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use codification CDB10 for 10% disconnected your registration done July 17.

Day 4 of 4: Ethereum Community Conference (Cannes, France)
Day 4 of 6: World Venture Forum 2025 (Kitzbühel, Austria)
Day 3 of 6: Bitcoin Alaska (Juneau, Alaska)
July 4-5: The Bitcoin Paradigm 2025 (Neuchâtel, Switzerland)
July 4–6: ETHGlobal Cannes (Cannes, France)
July 10-13: Mallorca Blockchain Days (Palma, Spain)
July 16: Invest Web3 Forum (Dubai)
July 20: Crypto Coin Day 7/20 (Atlanta)
July 24: Decasonic’s Web3 Investor Day 2025 (Chicago)
July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay)
July 28-29: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore)

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

AI-focused NEAR token is trading astatine $2.36 having risen by 16.5% since July 1.
The rally accelerated Wednesday pursuing an announcement from money manager Bitwise, which is rolling out a NEAR exchange-traded merchandise (ETP) for organization investors successful Europe.
Daily trading measurement doubled implicit the past 24 hours, hitting $213 cardinal arsenic traders effort to thrust the coattails of NEAR's caller affirmative displacement successful sentiment.
“The NEAR Staking ETP connected Xetra opens a caller span to NEAR for institutions by providing a regulated, exchange-traded mode to gain staking rewards," Near Protocol CEO Illia Polosukhin told CoinDesk.
NEAR's determination besides reflects broader altcoin marketplace strength, with the CoinDesk DeFi Select Index rising by 7.74% successful the past 24 hours and CoinDesk's memecoin scale is up by 13.2% successful the aforesaid period.
Memecoins BONK and WIF are starring the pack, up 21% and 15% respectively connected Thursday.

Derivatives Positioning

DOGE, LTC, XMR person seen the biggest increases successful unfastened involvement successful perpetuals listed connected offshore exchanges. BTC, XRP perpetual futures unfastened involvement has jumped implicit 5% successful 24 hours, validating the spot terms rise.
TRX and BCH proceed to spot a bias for shorts, arsenic evidenced by the antagonistic backing rates. Meanwhile, backing rates for XMR person surged to an annualized 40%, signifying imaginable overcrowding of agelong positions.
Block enactment flows connected Deribit featured bull enactment spreads successful BTC — a nett recognition strategy that profits from terms emergence oregon consolidation.
In ETH's case, a $2,800 telephone expiring connected July 25 was lifted portion idiosyncratic sold a telephone astatine $3,400.

Market Movements

BTC is up 0.72% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday astatine $109,970.87 (24hrs: +1.75%)
ETH is up 0.33% astatine $2,599.77 (24hrs: +5.63%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 1.51% astatine 3,149.61 (24hrs: +4.23%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps astatine 2.98%
BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0049% (5.3217% annualized) connected Binance

DXY is up 0.05% astatine 96.83
Gold futures are unchanged astatine $3,356.90
Silver futures are up 0.81% astatine $37.03
Nikkei 225 closed unchanged astatine 39,785.90
Hang Seng closed down 0.63% astatine 24,069.94
FTSE is up 0.34% astatine 8,804.35
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.26% astatine 5,305.14
DJIA closed on Wednesday down 0.02% astatine 44,484.42
S&P 500 closed up 0.47% astatine 6,227.42
Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.94% astatine 20,393.13
S&P/TSX Composite closed unchanged astatine 26,869.66
S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.99% astatine 2,727.94
U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is down 2.8 bps astatine 4.265%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged astatine 6,273.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged astatine 22,838.25
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged astatine 44,798.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 65.21% (-0.09%)
Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02362 (unchanged)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 872 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $59.65
Total Fees: 4.48 BTC / $483,647
CME Futures Open Interest: 151,540 BTC
BTC priced successful gold: 32.7 oz
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 9.27%

Technical Analysis

BTC perpetual futures unfastened interest. (Velo)

The illustration shows regular changes successful the cumulative unfastened involvement successful BTC perpetuals listed connected large exchanges.
Open involvement successful BTC presumption has breached retired of a descending channel, indicating renewed request for leveraged bets.
The breakout comes arsenic the spot terms rises supra $110K, suggesting a bias for bullish plays.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Wednesday astatine $402.28 (+7.76%), -4.83% astatine $382.85 successful pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $354.45 (+5.7%), -3.8% astatine $340.99
Circle (CRCL): closed astatine $177.97 (-7.56%), +5.91% astatine $188.49
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $22.22 (+4.27%), -2.07% astatine $21.76
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $17.80 (+13.38%), -10.28% astatine $15.97
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $12.20 (+8.25%), -5.33% astatine 11.55
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $17.56 (+1.8%), -2.11% astatine $17.19
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $12.48 (+12.64%), -8.65% astatine $11.40
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $25.15 (+8.92%), -7.24% astatine $23.33
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $39.54 (+11.63%), -8.19% astatine $36.30
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $29.44 (+1.52%), -0.65% astatine $29.25

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily nett flows: $407.8 million
Cumulative nett flows: $49.02 billion
Total BTC holdings ~1.25 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily nett flows: -$1.9 million
Cumulative nett flows: $4.27 billion
Total ETH holdings ~4.13 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Top 20 integer assets’ prices and volumes

Chart of the Day

The Polymarket-listed betting declaration "June jobs study prints negative?" indicates that traders comprehend an 11% accidental that Thursday's nonfarm payrolls study volition uncover occupation losses successful June.
In different words, the barroom of antagonistic expectations has been acceptable debased and the marketplace whitethorn respond violently if the information does amusement occupation losses.
Weaker labour marketplace information volition apt fortify the accidental of Fed complaint cuts, breeding bullish bitcoin volatility.

While You Were Sleeping

Trump’s Megabill Advances successful the House After GOP Divisions Nearly Derail It (CNBC): Despite interior GOP divisions implicit Medicaid cuts and a higher indebtedness ceiling, House Republicans passed a procedural ballot 219-213 aboriginal Thursday, clearing the mode for statement up of a last vote.
A Major Currency Outpaces Bitcoin With More Possible Momentum Ahead: Macro Markets (CoinDesk): As U.S. fiscal fears equine and ECB complaint cuts adjacent their end, the euro’s astonishing rally is forcing planetary investors to rethink their dollar bets.
Pakistan Pitches Nobel, Crypto and Rare Earths to Woo Donald Trump (Financial Times): To unafraid a favorable commercialized deal, Pakistan is pledging to physique a strategical bitcoin reserve, allocate 2,000 MW to crypto mining and spouse with Trump-affiliated crypto firms similar World Liberty Financial.
Trump Trade War Fuels Use of Currency Options arsenic Hedge successful Europe (Bloomberg): Following Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, regular FX enactment volumes deed grounds highs successful April, with BNP Paribas reporting a 2x leap successful 2025 income arsenic European firms favored options implicit forwards.
Russia Poses Growing Military Threat to NATO Members, Italy Says (Reuters): Italy’s defence curate warned Russia could airs a subject menace to NATO wrong 5 years and added Russian nationalist enactment for the Ukraine warfare remains beardown contempt 1 cardinal unit losses.
Swiss Bank AMINA Introduces Custody, Trading With Ripple’s RLUSD Stablecoin (CoinDesk): The slope said it would commencement with providing custody and trading for RLUSD for organization clients and nonrecreational investors, with plans to grow services successful the coming months.