1 day ago
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
"I don't recognize however tin anyone deliberation BTC is not a bargain astatine these prices...," Andre Dragosch, caput of probe - Europe astatine Bitwise, said connected X Monday arsenic BTC's terms dipped beneath $90,000.
While the remark whitethorn look overly optimistic to macro bears, it is not without justification. Even arsenic the DXY, Treasury yields, and Fed complaint expectations look to destabilize hazard assets, firm and organization request for BTC continues to strengthen.
Intesa Sanpaolo, Italy’s largest slope by marketplace capitalization, has reportedly purchased BTC, snapping up 11 BTC for $1 million. That could accelerate crypto adoption successful the European Union's third-largest economy, which already has 1.4 cardinal citizens holding cryptocurrencies.
If that's not enough, firm Treasury purchases of BTC person already reached 5,774 BTC successful the archetypal 2 weeks of January, outpacing the proviso of caller BTC.
To Dragosch's credit, BTC has bounced to implicit $96K, hinting at an extremity of the terms weakness that began a period agone astatine grounds highs supra $108K. As usual, that has brought cheer to each corners of the crypto market, with AI, gaming and meme sub-sectors starring the charge.
The recovery, supported by ongoing organization adoption and rumors of President-elect Donald Trump readying to contented an enforcement bid addressing crypto-accounting SEC rules connected time one, suggests that bears whitethorn find it hard to asseverate their influence.
Prices whitethorn determination into six figures if Tuesday's U.S. shaper terms scale points to softer ostentation successful the pipeline, weakening the hawkish Fed narrative. Note that the dollar index's rally has already stalled amid reports that Trump's tariffs volition beryllium gradual and smaller than initially feared.
What to Watch
Crypto
Jan. 14, 8:00 p.m.: Degen (DEGEN) mainnet upgrades to ArbOS 32.
Jan. 15: Degen liquidity mining airdrop; snapshots volition beryllium taken until the extremity of Jan. 14 (UTC).
Jan. 15: Mintlayer mentation 1.0.0 release. The mainnet upgrade introduces atomic swaps, enabling autochthonal BTC cross-chain swaps.
Macro
Jan. 14, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases December 2024’s PPI data.
PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%.
Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%.
Core PPI YoY Est. 3.7% vs. Prev. 3.4%.
PPI YoY Est. 3.4% vs. Prev. 3%.
Jan. 14, 8:55 a.m.: U.S. Redbook YoY for the week ended connected Jan. 11. Prev. 6.8%.
Jan. 15, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases December 2024’s Consumer Price Index Summary.
Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.3%.
Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.3%.
Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%.
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.8% vs. Prev. 2.7%.
Jan. 16, 2:00 a.m.: The U.K.’s Office for National Statistics November 2024’s GDP estimate.
GDP MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.1%.
GDP YoY Prev. 1.3%.
Jan. 16, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ending connected Jan. 11. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 214K vs. Prev. 201K.
Jan. 17, 5:00 a.m.: Eurostat releases December 2024's Eurozone ostentation data.
Inflation Rate MoM Final Est. 0.4% vs Prev. -0.3%.
Core Inflation Rate YoY Final Est. 2.7% vs. Prev. 2.7%.
Inflation Rate YoY Final Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 2.2%.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Compound DAO is discussing the instauration a caller portion liable for managing APR inducement campaigns to pull ample blimpish investors.
Maple Finance DAO is discussing utilizing 20% of the interest gross the protocol volition make successful Q1 to bargain backmost SYRUP tokens and distributed them to SYRUP stakers.
Unlocks
Jan. 14: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 0.93% of its circulating supply, worthy $70.65 million.
Jan. 15: Connex (CONX) to unlock 376% of its circulating supply, worthy $84.5 million.
Jan. 18: Ondo (ONDO) to unlock 134% of its circulating supply, worthy $2.19 billion.
Token Launches
No large token launches scheduled today.
Jan. 15: Derive (DRV) volition launch, with 5% of proviso going to sENA stakers. Jan. 16: Solayer (LAYER) to big token merchantability followed by 5 months of points farming.
Jan. 17: Solv Protocol (SOLV) to beryllium listed connected Binance.
Conferences:
Day 9 of 14: Starknet, an Ethereum furniture 2, is holding its Winter Hackathon (online).
Day 2 of 12: Swiss WEB3FEST Winter Edition 2025 (Zug, Zurich, St. Moritz, Davos)
Jan. 17: Unchained: Blockchain Business Forum 2025 (Los Angeles)
Jan. 18: BitcoinDay (Naples, Florida)
Jan. 20-24: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos-Klosters, Switzerland)
Jan. 21: Frankfurt Tokenization Conference 2025
Jan. 25-26: Catstanbul 2025 (Istanbul). The archetypal assemblage league for Jupiter, a decentralized speech (DEX) aggregator built connected Solana.
Jan 30-31: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador)
Feb. 3: Digital Assets Forum (London)
Feb. 18-20: Consensus Hong Kong
Token Talk
By Francisco Rodrigues
Holoworld AI has announced the commencement of Agent Market, a Solana-based token launchpad allowing users to create, trade, and interact with on-chain AI agents and their tokens without coding skills. The marketplace has integration with aggregate societal channels including X, allowing for agents to beryllium deployed connected these channels aft launch.
Despite enduring a steep correction, AI tokens person outperformed each different handbasket people wrong the cryptocurrency abstraction truthful acold this year, owing their returns to a important surge seen successful the archetypal week of the year. CCData’s handbasket show shows that year-to-date, AI tokens are up 2.5%, portion the second-best performing class, speech tokens, is up little than 0.5%.
On the different extremity of the spectrum, existent satellite plus (RWA) tokens are down much than 14% , importantly underperforming memecoins, which dropped astir 10% successful this month’s correction.
Usual Protocol, the fashionable decentralized concern protocol that came nether fire past week implicit an unexpected alteration successful its redemption mechanism, has activated its Revenue Switch for USUALx holders.
Solana-based token launchpad Pump.fun has moved 122,620 SOL worthy implicit $21 cardinal to Kraken, bringing their full deposited funds to 1.785 cardinal SOL worthy $362 million, Onchain Lens revealed.
The FTX property has executed its monthly SOL redemption transfer, unstaking 182,421 SOL and moving the funds to 20 antithetic addresses. Since November, FTX has redeemed implicit $500 cardinal successful SOL, and it inactive holds $1.18 cardinal successful its staking address.
Derivatives Positioning
Large headdress tokens, excluding XLM, XRP and HYPE, person seen a diminution successful perpetual futures unfastened involvement successful the past 24 hours.
Front-end BTC and ETH options hazard reversals amusement neutral sentiment contempt the terms recovery. Near-dated and semipermanent options amusement a bias for calls.
Block flows featured ample acquisition of calls astatine $95K and $98K expiring successful the adjacent 2 weeks and an ETH bull telephone spread, involving March 28 expiry calls astatine $5.5K and $6.5K.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 2.56%% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday to $96,615.50 (24hrs: +6.44%)
ETH is up 3.84% astatine $3,233.91 (24hrs: +5.76%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 4.69% to 3,463.07 (24hrs: +6.84%)
Ether staking output is up 15 bps to 3.12%
BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.01% (10.95% annualized) connected Binance
DXY is down 0.35% astatine 109.57
Gold is up 0.22% astatine $2,679.50/oz
Silver is up 0.76% to $30.32/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -1.83% astatine 38,474.30
Hang Seng closed +1.83% astatine 19,219.78
FTSE is up 0.17% to 8,237.93
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.03% to 5,005.29
DJIA closed connected Monday +0.86% astatine 42,297.12
S&P 500 closed +0.16 astatine 5,836.22
Nasdaq closed -0.38% astatine 19,088.10
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.93% astatine 24,536.30
S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.49% astatine 2,192.57
U.S. 10-year Treasury was unchanged astatine 4.79%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.54% to 5,906.00
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.71% to 21,096.00
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.37% to 42,682.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 58.52
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.033
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 773 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $54.3
Total Fees: 7.77 BTC/ $721,654
CME Futures Open Interest: 174,105 BTC
BTC priced successful gold: 35.6/oz
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 10.14%
Technical Analysis
Despite the overnight bounce, BTC's terms remains successful the Ichimoku cloud, a momentum indicator created by Japanese writer Goichi Hosada.
A crossover above the unreality would awesome a renewed bullish outlook.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed connected Monday astatine $328.40 (+0.15%), up 3.19% astatine $338.89 successful pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $251.20 (-2.93%), up 3.18% astatine $259.20 successful pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed astatine C$26.04 (-3.8%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $17.19 (-3.75%), up 3.61% astatine $17.81 successful pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $11.77 (-1.92%), up 3.65% astatine $12.20 successful pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $13.6 (-3.13%), up 1.6222.22$13.82 successful pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $10.19 (+0.99%), up 3.24% astatine $10.52 successful pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $22.22 (-3.85%), up 7.29% astatine $23.84 successful pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $52.70 (+2.61%), up 4.19% astatine $54.91 successful pre-market.
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $33.58 (-11.09%).
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily nett flow: -$284.1 million
Cumulative nett flows: $35.94 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.131 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily nett flow: -$39.4 million
Cumulative nett flows: $2.41 million
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.535 million.
Source: Farside Investors, arsenic of Jan. 13.
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The illustration shows show of assorted crypto marketplace sub-sectors successful 2024.
Memecoins witnessed a staggering 254% summation past year, outperforming the broader marketplace and bitcoin by a large margin.
While You Were Sleeping
Is Bitcoin Bottom In? BTC's Price Action is Inverse of December Peak Above $108K (CoinDesk): Bitcoin dipped beneath $90K connected Monday arsenic concern banks speculated astir imaginable Fed complaint hikes, but it rebounded to $94K, suggesting the terms whitethorn person temporarily bottomed aft caller volatility.
Crypto Bank Sygnum Gets Unicorn Status With $58M Round (CoinDesk): Sygnum, a Switzerland and Singapore-based integer plus bank, achieved unicorn presumption aft raising $58M to enactment European and Hong Kong expansion, enhanced Bitcoin offerings, and acquisition plans.
Sony’s Layer-2 Blockchain “Soneium” Goes Live (CoinDesk): Sony has launched "Soneium," a layer-2 blockchain connected Ethereum, leveraging Optimism’s OP Stack to link web2 and web3 audiences portion supporting gaming, finance, and amusement applications.
As the U.S. Dollar Soars, Here Are Europe’s Biggest Winners and Losers (CNBC): The beardown U.S. dollar, fueled by higher yields and superior flows, weakens the euro and pound, expanding costs for nett importers similar Germany and the U.K., portion benefiting Norway’s lipid exports.
China Will 'Try Very Hard' to Slow Yuan’s Fall, UBS’ Wang Says (Bloomberg): UBS says a weaker yuan volition connection constricted export benefits, arsenic Beijing seeks to dilatory its diminution amid US tariff threats, a beardown dollar, and risks of superior outflows.
BOJ Set to Discuss Whether to Raise Rates Next Week (The Wall Street Journal): Deputy Gov. Himino says the Bank of Japan volition sermon a imaginable complaint hike connected Jan. 23-24, noting ostentation trends align with projections. His remarks lifted enslaved yields, portion the yen concisely weakened earlier recovering.
In the Ether
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