1 week ago
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
It's inactive aboriginal successful 2025, and already we're seeing a important divergence betwixt bitcoin and the S&P 500.
BTC is looking to unafraid a foothold supra $100,000, and its Deribit-listed options are indicating a bullish bias. The aforesaid can't beryllium said of the S&P 500, which has a past of providing risk-on/off cues to hazard assets, including BTC.
According to Cboe data, the SPX options skew present reflects greater downside hazard than it did a twelvemonth ago.
The antiaircraft positioning successful stocks possibly stems from concerns that President-elect Donald Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration could beryllium a "sell-the-news" event. Risk-taking has picked up crossed fiscal markets successful the past 2 months successful anticipation of pro-corporate and pro-economy reforms nether Trump's presidency, and profit-taking cannot beryllium ruled out.
"Broadly speaking, we spot immoderate cracks successful the information and deliberation that Trump’s inauguration aboriginal this period has a decent accidental of being a ‘sell the news’ lawsuit aft astir 3 months of unbridled economical optimism crossed astir sectors," Bruce J Clark, caput of rates America astatine Informa Connect, said connected LinkedIn.
That raises the question: How volition BTC react? After all, expectations of regulatory clarity nether Trump person already seen the cryptocurrency rally to implicit $100,000 from $70,000 successful conscionable 2 months. A Jan. 20 broader marketplace sell-off could propulsion down the dollar scale and the enslaved yields, perchance supporting BTC.
For now, determination are respective factors supporting BTC. For instance, the $400 cardinal successful liquidity sucked retired of the strategy successful the last 2 weeks of 2024 is apt to return, greasing plus prices, according to the LondonCryptoClub newsletter. Plus, immoderate of the superior flows from China could find a location successful cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin is again trading astatine a premium connected Coinbase, reflecting stronger Stateside request portion miners are expected to chopped backmost connected sales.
"The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) for miners remains precise positive, hovering astir 0.5, suggesting that miners are inactive successful a beardown position, with important unrealized profits and a penchant to clasp onto their BTC astatine this stage," analysts astatine Bitfinex told CoinDesk.
In the broader market, immoderate traders are dabbling with December 2025 ETH calls astatine strikes arsenic precocious arsenic $11,000. Ether is presently trading beneath $4,000. Over 70 of the apical 100 coins by marketplace worth were up connected a 24-hour ground astatine property time. Need much grounds of risk-on?
That said, support an oculus connected the enslaved marketplace rout, which is accelerated spreading extracurricular the U.S. Early today, the Japanese 10-year enslaved output roseate to a 13-year precocious portion its 30-year British counterpart was connected the verge of hitting the highest since the precocious 1990s. That tin suck the upwind retired of hazard assets. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto
Jan. 7: Dusk (DUSK) mainnet launch.
Jan. 8: Bybit terminates withdrawal and custody services to nationals oregon residents of the French Territories.
Jan. 8: Xterio (XTER) to make and administer caller tokens successful token procreation event.
Jan. 9, 1:00 a.m.: Cronos (CRO) zkEVM mainnet upgrades to ZKsync's latest release.
Jan. 12, 10:30 p.m.: Binance volition halt Fantom token (FTM) deposits and withdrawals and delist each FTM trading pairs. FTM tokens volition beryllium swapped for S tokens astatine a 1:1 ratio. Jan. 15: Derive (DRV) token procreation event.
Jan. 15: Mintlayer mentation 1.0.0 release. The mainnet upgrade introduces atomic swaps, enabling autochthonal BTC cross-chain swaps.
Jan. 16, 3:00 a.m.: Trading for the Sonic token (S) is acceptable to commencement connected Binance, featuring pairs similar S/USDT, S/BTC, and S/BNB.
Macro
Jan. 7, 8:55 a.m.: U.S. Redbook YoY for the week ended Jan. 4. Prev. 7.1%.
Jan. 7, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases November 2024’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report.
Job openings Est. 7.65M vs. Prev. 7.744M.
Job quits Prev. 3.326M.
Jan. 8, 8:30 a.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller is giving a speech, “Economic Outlook,” astatine the Lectures of the Governor Event, Paris, France. Livestream link.
Jan. 8, 2:00 p.m.: The Fed releases the minutes of the Dec. 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Jan. 9, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ended Jan. 4. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 210K vs. Prev. 211K.
Jan. 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases December 2024’s Employment Situation Summary report.
Nonfarm payrolls Est. 160K vs. Prev. 227K.
Unemployment complaint Est. 4.2% vs Prev. 4.2%.
Jan. 10, 10:00 a.m.: The University of Michigan releases January’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary). Est. 74.5 vs. Prev. 74.0.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
The dYdX DAO voted to upwind down its FTM-USD marketplace implicit the Sonic token migration. Spartan Council is holding a akin vote.
Unlocks
Jan. 7: Ethereum Name Service to unlock 1.46% of its full locked supply, worthy $53.5 million.
Jan. 8: Flare to unlock 1.61% of its circulating supply, worthy $47.15 million.
Jan. 8: Ethena to unlock 0.42% of its ENA circulating supply, worthy $14.7 million.
Jan. 8: Optimism to unlock 0.33% of its OP circulating supply, worthy $9.3 million.
Token Listings
Jan. 7: Sonic SVM (SONIC) to beryllium listed connected Bitget, KuCoin, and MEXC astatine 7 a.m.
Jan. 10: Lava Network (LAVA) to beryllium listed connected KuCoin and Bybit astatine 5 a.m.
Jan. 10: Bybit to delist FTM (FTM) astatine 5 a.m..
Conferences:
Day 2 of 14: Starknet, the Ethereum furniture 2 is holding its Winter Hackathon (online).
Jan. 13-24: Swiss WEB3FEST Winter Edition 2025 (Zug, Zurich, St. Moritz, Davos)
Jan. 17: Unchained: Blockchain Business Forum 2025 (Los Angeles)
Jan. 18: BitcoinDay (Naples, Florida)
Jan. 20-24: World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Davos-Klosters, Switzerland)
Jan. 21: Frankfurt Tokenization Conference 2025
Jan. 25-26: Catstanbul 2025 (Istanbul). The archetypal assemblage league for Jupiter, a decentralized speech (DEX) aggregator built connected Solana.
Jan 30-31: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador)
Feb. 3: Digital Assets Forum (London)
Feb. 18-20: Consensus Hong Kong
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has offloaded a stash of memecoins sent to him by assorted communities to money a charity, on-chain information shows.
In the past 2 days, Buterin has sold $940,900 worthy of lesser-known memecoins for the USDC stablecoin and ether. The NEIRO, ESTEE, MARVIN, EBULL, MSTR, and TERMINUS tokens brought successful astatine slightest $57,000 worthy of USDC, portion different tokens were sold for little than $40,000.
Just implicit $916,000 was whisked distant to a multisign wallet, apt tied to the foundation Kanro, according to SpotOnChain.
Communities often nonstop tokens to Buterin chiefly to summation vulnerability and leverage his power successful the crypto space.
But Buterin’s known philanthropy besides plays a role. Communities nonstop tokens expecting him to donate them, indirectly supporting charity. Back successful October, Buterin said helium would donate immoderate tokens sent to him to charitable causes, though helium added that helium didn’t enactment the act.
“Anything that gets sent to maine gets donated to foundation excessively (thanks moodeng!), helium said. “The 10B from contiguous is going to anti-airborne-disease tech), though I genuinely similar if you guys nonstop to foundation directly, possibly adjacent marque a DAO and get your assemblage straight engaged successful the decisions and process.”
Derivatives Positioning
BTC and ETH ground connected the CME are small changed astir 10% and 13%, respectively, with unfastened involvement ticking up, but staying good abbreviated of grounds highs.
The broader marketplace perpetual backing rates stay successful a scope adjacent an annualized 10%.
BTC and ETH calls proceed to commercialized pricier than puts, but the largest artifact commercialized for the time leaned bearish, involving a agelong presumption successful the $100,000 enactment expiring Jan. 31 financed by selling the $90,000 enactment expiring successful June.
Market Movements:
BTC is down 0.23% from 4 p.m. ET Monday to $101,428.11 (24hrs: +2.72%)
ETH is down 0.28% astatine $3,658.61 (24hrs: +0.62%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 0.34% to 3,726.76 (24hrs: +1.95%)
CESR Composite Ether Staking Rate is up 15 bps to 3.2%
BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.01% (10.95% annualized) connected Binance
DXY is down 0.23% astatine 108.01
Gold is up 0.63% astatine $2,655/oz
Silver is up 1.58% to $30.82/oz
Nikkei 225 closed +1.97% astatine 40,083.3
Hang Seng closed -1.22% astatine 19,447.58
FTSE is down 0.22% astatine 8,231.7
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.45% to 5,009.08
DJIA closed Monday unchanged astatine 42,706.56
S&P 500 closed +0.55% astatine 5,975.38
Nasdaq closed +1.24% astatine 19,864.98
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.29% astatine 24,999.8
S&P 40 Latin America closed +2.13% astatine 2,199.88
U.S. 10-year Treasury was up 2 bps astatine 4.618
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% to 6,026.5
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged astatine 21,761.75
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged astatine 43,011
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 57.55%
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.036
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 792 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $59.4
Total Fees: 6.6 BTC/ $665,000
CME Futures Open Interest:495,641 BTC
BTC priced successful gold: 38.5 oz
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 10.95%
Basket Performance
Technical Analysis
The rally successful longer-duration enslaved yields shows nary signs of stopping.
The 30-year Treasury output has topped the horizontal absorption from the April 2024 high.
Should it clasp astatine that level, the absorption volition displacement to the 2023 precocious supra 5%.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed connected Monday astatine $379.09 (+11.61%), unchanged successful pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $287.76 (+6.32%), down 0.91% astatine $285.09 successful pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed astatine C$29.83 (+1.32%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $20.55 (+4.63%), down 1.75% astatine $20.19 successful pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $12.89 (+4.46%), down 1.47% astatine $12.70 successful pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $15.12 (-1.69%), down 0.13% astatine $15.10 successful pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $11.43 (+5.83%), down 1.14% astatine $11.3 successful pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $26.15 (+1.63%), down 0.96% astatine $25.90 successful pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $58.94 (-0.17%), down 1.49% astatine $58.06 successful pre-market.
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily nett flow: $978.6 million
Cumulative nett flows: $36.89 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.134 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily nett flow: $128.7 million
Cumulative nett flows: $2.77 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.618 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The illustration shows ether's $4,000 telephone is present the astir fashionable enactment connected Deribit, with an unfastened involvement of $336 million.
Also, enactment the enactment successful higher onslaught calls astatine $10,000 and $15,000.
While You Were Sleeping
Bitcoin Traders Eye $109K arsenic Trump Anticipation Builds, BTC ETFs Rake successful Nearly $1B (CoinDesk): Bitcoin rebounded from December lows aft surpassing $102,000, with U.S.-listed spot BTC ETFs attracting astir $1 cardinal successful inflows connected Monday.
FTX EU Sold to Backpack Exchange, Plans Regulated Crypto Derivatives Push Across Europe (CoinDesk): Backpack Exchange announced the $32.7 cardinal acquisition of FTX E.U., aiming to go the archetypal regulated speech successful the E.U. to connection perpetual crypto futures.
Dollar Edges Toward One-Week Low arsenic Market Ponders Trump Tariffs (Reuters): The U.S. dollar scale (DXY) eased toward a one-week debased amid speculation President-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs whitethorn beryllium little assertive than promised, contempt his denials.
Canada Tilts Right arsenic Inflation Claims Trudeau arsenic Latest Victim (Bloomberg): Justin Trudeau resigned arsenic Canada’s premier curate arsenic inflation, mediocre economical growth, lodging unaffordability and arguable migration policies eroded nationalist confidence, boosting Conservative prospects of winning the adjacent national election.
Bitcoin Miners Stockpile Coins to Ride Out Profit Squeeze (Financial Times): Some U.S. bitcoin miners, including MARA and Riot, are retaining each mined bitcoin for their treasury and utilizing raised funds and profits to bargain much portion diversifying into AI-driven operations to offset rising costs and competition.
This Crypto Fund Blew Past Bitcoin's 121% Price Gain successful 2024 (CoinDesk): Pythagoras’ Alpha Long Biased Strategy outperformed bitcoin’s 121% summation successful 2024 by combining a halfway bitcoin presumption for semipermanent maturation with machine-learning-driven momentum and long-short strategies, achieving a 204% return.
In the Ether
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