1 month ago
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Despite the expanding rhetoric surrounding President Donald Trump's tariffs, bitcoin (BTC) is holding dependable alongside affirmative cues from overseas speech hazard barometers similar AUD/JPY. Later today, Trump is owed to enforce 25% tariffs connected alloy and aluminum imports connected apical of further metallic duties.
This marketplace stance up of an impending tariff escalation contrasts starkly with the hazard aversion observed a week ago, erstwhile Trump fired the archetypal tariff shot. Perhaps marketplace participants deliberation he's utilizing assertive tactics to negociate commercialized deals alternatively than committing to sustained tariffs. This conception has gained traction pursuing lat Monday's determination to suspend tariffs connected Mexico and Canada for 30 days, hinting astatine a much strategical attack to commercialized negotiations.
According to QCP Capital, the existent marketplace stableness could embolden Trump to instrumentality a tougher stance. "A feedback loop is emerging — President Trump, highly delicate to marketplace reactions, is facing a marketplace progressively calling his bluff. This could embolden him further, adding different furniture of volatility," QCP said successful a Telegram broadcast.
It volition beryllium absorbing to spot however this develops.
There's a social media post doing the rounds that shows grounds unfastened abbreviated positions successful the CME-listed cash-settled ether futures. Those shorts are not needfully outright bearish bets and are apt components of transportation trades, wherever investors clasp agelong positions successful ETFs portion shorting CME futures. Note that the ETH ETF inflows surged past week. It's imaginable immoderate of the shorts are investors hedging against agelong altcoin bets amid concerns implicit the fig of coins and impending ample unlocks.
Over the weekend, Base subordinate Kabir.Base.eth refuted claims that the sequencer Coinbase had been selling ETH earned arsenic fees, adding a furniture of transparency to its operations.
In different notable development, Archange Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, reportedly issued a caller memecoin that saw a trader crook $5,000 into an astonishing $12 cardinal successful little than 3 hours, achieving a singular instrumentality of 2,450x, according to LookOnChain data.
Meanwhile, litecoin (LTC) continues to radiance arsenic the top-performing cryptocurrency of the past 24 hours, up 9%.
On the macroeconomic front, the surge successful the U.S. user ostentation expectations raises concerns astir the likelihood of a prolonged intermission successful Federal Reserve's complaint cuts. Plus, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is owed for merchandise connected Wednesday. Stay alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
Feb. 13: Start of Kraken's gradual delisting of the USDT, PYUSD, EURT, TUSD, UST stablecoins for EEA clients. The process ends March. 31.
Feb. 14: Dynamic TAO (DTAO) web upgrade goes unrecorded connected the Bittensor (TAO) mainnet.
Feb. 14, 2:30 a.m. (Estimate): Qtum (QTUM) hard fork web upgrade.
Feb. 18, 10:00 a.m.: FTX Digital Markets, the Bahamas-based subsidiary of FTX, will commencement reimbursing creditors.
Feb. 21: TON (The Open Network) volition go the exclusive blockchain infrastructure for messaging level Telegram’s Mini App ecosystem.
Macro
Feb. 11, 2:30 p.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Subcommittee ("Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence") hearing titled "A Golden Age of Digital Assets: Charting a Path Forward." Witness see Jonathan Jachym, who is Kraken's lawman wide counsel. Livestream link.
Feb. 12, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%
Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 3.2%
Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.9%
Feb. 12, 10:00 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome Powell presents his semi-annual study to the U.S. House Financial Services Committee. Livestream link.
Feb. 13, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases January’’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report.
Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0%
Core PPI YoY Prev. 3.5%
PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.2%
PPI YoY Prev. 3.3%
Feb. 13, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims study for the week ended Feb. 8.
Initial Jobless Claims Est. 215K vs. Prev. 219K
Earnings
Feb. 10: Canaan (CAN), pre-market, $-0.08
Feb. 11: HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market, $-0.15
Feb. 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market, $0.14 (2 ests.)
Feb. 12: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, $0.05
Feb. 12: IREN (IREN), post-market, $-0.01
Feb. 12 (TBA): Metaplanet (TYO:3350)
Feb. 12: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.25
Feb. 12: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.41
Feb. 13: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.89
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Aave DAO is discussing recognizing HyperLend arsenic a affable fork of Aave deployed connected the Hyperliquid EVM chain, arsenic good arsenic the deployment of Aave v3 connected Ink, Kraken’s layer-2 rollup network.
Sky DAO is discussing, among different things, onboarding Arbitrum One to the Spark Liquidity layer, expanding the PSM2 complaint limits connected Base, and minting 100 cardinal USDS worthy of sUSDS into Base to accommodate for maturation connected the network.
Feb. 10, 10:30 a.m.: OKX to clasp a listings AMA with Chief Marketing Officer Haider Rafique and Head of Product Marketing Matthew Osofisan.
Feb. 12, 2 p.m. : Render (RENDER) to host an AI Scout Discord AMA session.
Unlocks
Feb. 10: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.97% of circulating proviso worthy $71.14 million.
Feb. 10: Berachain (BERA) to unlock 12.08% of circulating proviso worthy $66.07 million.
Feb. 12: Aethir (ATH) to unlock 10.21% of circulating proviso worthy $23.80 million.
Feb. 14: The Sandbox (SAND) to unlock 8.4% of circulating proviso worthy $80.2 million.
Token Launches
Feb. 10: Analog (ANLOG) to beryllium listed connected Bitget, Gate.io, MEXC and KuCoin.
Feb. 12: Avalon (AVL) and Game 7 (G7) to beryllium listed connected Bybit.
Feb. 13: EthereumPoW (ETHW) and Polygon (MATIC) to nary longer beryllium supported astatine Deribit.
Conferences:
CoinDesk's Consensus to instrumentality spot in Hong Kong connected Feb. 18-20 and in Toronto connected May 14-16. Use codification DAYBOOK and prevention 15% connected passes.
Feb. 13-14: The 4th Edition of NFT Paris.
Feb. 18-20: Consensus Hong Kong
Feb. 19: Sui Connect: Hong Kong
Feb. 23 to March 2: ETHDenver 2025 (Denver, Colorado)
Feb. 25: HederaCon 2025 (Denver)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
Various memecoins raffled around the satellite from Asia to America, bringing backmost signs of a frenzy that tends to grip the crypto marketplace each fewer months.
BNB Chain's TST token, primitively created successful a tutorial, skyrocketed to a $300 cardinal marketplace headdress pursuing mentions by Binance laminitis Changpeng Zhao. The token gained popularity successful Chinese communities, posts show.
David Portnoy of U.S.-based Barstool Sports promoted JAILSTOOL arsenic marketplace watchers accused him of utilizing his societal power to pump the lowcap token, which peaked astatine implicit $200 cardinal earlier settling astatine a $78 cardinal marketplace cap.
The Central African Republic issued its ain memecoin, CAR, aiming to enactment nationalist improvement and summation the country's planetary visibility.
Derivatives Positioning
Basis successful BTC and ETH CME futures dipped beneath 10%, which whitethorn construe into slower inflows into the ETFs.
Perpetual backing rates connected offshore exchanges for astir large coins stay marginally bullish betwixt an annualized 5% to 10%. XLM stands retired arsenic having the astir antagonistic backing complaint — successful excess of -20% — reflecting a bias for shorts.
Front-end ETH puts commercialized a vol premium of 2 to 5 points comparative to calls, exhibiting downside fears. BTC front-end options besides amusement a enactment bias, according to information root Amberdata.
Market Movements:
BTC is up 1.80% from 4 p.m. ET Friday to $97,805.98 (24hrs: -1.01%)
ETH is down 0.79% astatine $2,647.53 (24hrs: -0.63%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 2.92% to 3,209.42 (24hrs: +0.19%)
CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 3 bps to 2.97%
BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0087% (9.48% annualized) connected Binance
DXY is up 0.12% astatine 108.16
Gold is up 1.44% astatine $2,902.17/oz
Silver is up 1.29% to $32.22/oz
Nikkei 225 closed unchanged astatine 38,801.17
Hang Seng closed up 1.84% astatine 21,521.98
FTSE is up 0.53% astatine 8,746.63
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.34% astatine 5,343.63
DJIA closed -0.99% to 44,303.40
S&P 500 closed -0.95% astatine 6,025.99
Nasdaq closed -1.36% astatine 19,523.40
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -0.36% astatine 25,442.91
S&P 40 Latin America closed -1.10% astatine 2,410.24
U.S. 10-year Treasury went up 4 bps to 4.48%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.46% astatine 6,077
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.70% astatine 21,742
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.35% astatine 44,576
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 61.70% (0.05%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02717 (-0.22%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 808 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $54.1
Total Fees: 5.04 BTC / $337,318
CME Futures Open Interest: 164,510
BTC priced successful gold: 33.5 oz
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 9.52%
Technical Analysis
Shares of Strategy (MSTR) person dived retired of a mini rising channel, hinting astatine an extremity of the bounce from the Dec. 31 debased and imaginable resumption of a broader pullback from precocious 2024 highs.
Prices person recovered acceptance beneath the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the fourfold rally seen from September to November.
A aureate regularisation of method investigation is that for a marketplace to support its existent trend, it indispensable clasp supra the 38.2% level. If it fails to bash so, the bull inclination is said to person ended.
Crypto Equities
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed connected Friday astatine $327.56 (+0.56%), up 2.27% astatine $334.98 successful pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $274.49 (+1.52%), up 1.83% astatine $279.52 successful pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed astatine C$26.89 (-0.66%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $16.77 (-0.18%), up 1.97% astatine $17.10 successful pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $11.64 (+0.26%), up 1.89% astatine $11.86 successful pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $12.56 (+0.24%), up 0.88% astatine $12.67 successful pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $11.33 (+9.15%), up 1.5% astatine 11.50 successful pre-market.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $23.15 (+1.71%), up 0.52% astatine $23.27 successful pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $49.20 (-1.44%), up 2.20% astatine $50.28 successful pre-market.
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $48.37 (+0.75%), +0.52% astatine 48.62 successful pre-market.
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily nett flow: $171.3 million
Cumulative nett flows: $40.70 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.176 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily nett flow: No flows reported.
Cumulative nett flows: $3.18 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.793 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The alleged real, oregon inflation-adjusted, U.S. output has dropped by 34 ground points successful conscionable implicit 3 weeks.
A continued diminution could trigger a hunt for yield, galvanizing request for hazard assets, including BTC.
While You Were Sleeping
Bitcoin HODLer Metaplanet Achieves $35M Unrealized Gains successful 2024 Thanks to BTC Treasury (CoinDesk): The Japanese company, which already holds 1,761 bitcoin, said it plans to person 10,000 BTC by twelvemonth end.
Bitcoin Indicator That Signaled $70K Breakout Turns Bearish arsenic Trump's Trade War Rhetoric Grows (CoinDesk): A fashionable method indicator is showing bitcoin weakness amid rising U.S. trade-tariff rhetoric. A driblet beneath $90K would corroborate persistent bearish momentum.
US Endowments Join Crypto Rush by Building Bitcoin Portfolios (Financial Times): U.S. foundations and assemblage endowments are ramping up cryptocurrency investments, driven by FOMO and Trump's pro-crypto stance, contempt concerns implicit terms volatility and a deficiency of regulatory clarity.
Trump Unveils Plans for 25% Tariffs connected Steel, Aluminum Imports (Bloomberg): The U.S. is acceptable to denote 25% tariffs connected alloy and aluminum imports, and reciprocal tariffs connected nations taxing U.S. goods volition travel this week.
Inflation Rises Amid Lunar New Year Spending As European Stocks Benefit (Euronews): China’s January ostentation climbed 0.5% YoY, fueled by Lunar New Year spending and stimulus. Persistent PPI deflation and U.S.-China commercialized tensions stay a concern.
China’s Strategy successful Trade War: Threaten U.S. Tech Companies (The Wall Street Journal): China is reportedly readying to people much U.S. tech giants similar Apple and Broadcom with antitrust investigations, aiming to bolster its bargaining presumption successful commercialized negotiations with the U.S.
In the Ether
English (US) 