5 hours ago
By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Fear is gripping fiscal markets, triggered mostly by President Donald Trump's tariff announcements, with Hong Kong stocks plunging 14% connected Monday, the astir since the Asian Financial Crisis successful 1997, and Taiwan and Japanese stocks sliding 10%.
European equities didn’t fare overmuch better. The FTSE 100, DAX and CAC 40 are each down much than 5%.
Nor were crypto markets immune. Bitcoin (BTC) fell 10% implicit 24 hours, dipping beneath $75,000, and ether (ETH) plunged 22%. XRP and SOL besides nosedived much than 20%, portion DOGE is down much than 15%. Bitcoin dominance continues to rise, hitting 63%, a level not seen since aboriginal 2021. The CoinDesk 20 index, a measurement of the broader market, has mislaid astir 12% successful the past day.
As for U.S. equities, the S&P 500 is acceptable to commencement the week already successful carnivore marketplace territory — down 20% from its all-time precocious and 5% little successful pre-market trading — and connected people for what could beryllium the worst three-day performance successful its history.
China, whose stocks fell 7%, is reportedly considering front-loading stimulus measures to soften the blow. On Friday, it announced a reciprocal 34% tariff on each U.S. goods.
“We person monolithic fiscal deficits with China, the European Union, and galore others," Trump wrote connected Truth Social implicit the weekend. "The lone mode this occupation tin beryllium cured is with tariffs, which are present bringing tens of billions of dollars into the U.S. They are already successful effect, and a beauteous happening to behold… We are going to reverse [the deficit], and reverse it quickly. Someday radical volition recognize that tariffs, for the United States of America, are a precise beauteous thing!”
So, wherever tin investors question refuge? For now, it seems to beryllium U.S. bonds. The 10-year enactment is up 8% year-to-date, portion the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which tracks the agelong extremity of the output curve, is up 6% arsenic investors heap into authorities debt, pushing yields lower. This driblet successful yields is simply a invited motion for the U.S. administration.
Seasoned capitalist Bill Ackman noted that Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick doesn’t look acrophobic astir a imaginable economical crash, hinting that Lutnick and Cantor Fitzgerald, the fiscal services steadfast helium utilized to head, are agelong bonds. Ackman suggested connected X that they could beryllium positioned to nett from a downturn.
What’s next? Watch for countries scrambling to debar the tariffs. Some, similar Argentina, Taiwan and India, are already showing signs of conceding and removing tariffs connected U.S. imports. The uncertainty surrounding these negotiations volition apt support markets volatile arsenic the Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX) hits 60 successful pre-market trading. That's the highest level since August 2024. These are decidedly times to enactment alert!
What to Watch
Crypto:
April 7, 8:30 p.m.: Syscoin (SYS) activates the Nexus upgrade connected its mainnet astatine artifact 2,010,345.
April 9: The Mercury web upgrade gets applied to the Neutron (NTRN) mainnet, migrating it "from Cosmos Hub's Interchain Security to a afloat sovereign PoS network."
April 9, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing astir however U.S. securities laws could beryllium updated to instrumentality into relationship integer assets. Livestream link.
April 10, 10:30 a.m.: Status conference for erstwhile Terraform Labs CEO Do Hyeong Kwon astatine the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.
April 11, 1 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force Roundtable connected "Tailoring Regulation for Crypto Trading" successful Washington.
Macro
April 9, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s higher individualized tariffs connected imports from apical U.S. commercialized shortage countries instrumentality effect.
April 9, 12:01 p.m.: China's 34% retaliatory tariffs connected U.S. imports instrumentality effect.
April 14: Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele volition articulation U.S. President Donald Trump astatine the White House for an official moving visit.
Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
No net scheduled.
Token Events
Governance votes & calls
Sky DAO is voting connected an enforcement proposal that includes a fig of initiatives including initializing ALLOCATOR-BLOOM-A with a 0% stableness interest and a 10 cardinal USDS indebtedness ceiling, updating the Smart Burn Engine's "hop" parameter and extending SparkLend's liquidity operations. Voting ends May 3.
Uniswap DAO is discussing a connection to support v4 expansion with the instauration of subdomains to way BSL licence exemptions and authoritative deployments, granting the Uniswap Foundation a broad licence to deploy v4 connected people chains.
April 7, 9 a.m.: OriginTrail to big a “Shaping AI for Good” Zoom talk.
April 7, 11:30 a.m.: Jupiter’s squad to sermon DAO processes, moving groups, its LFG v2, and more.
April 7, 4 p.m.: Livepeer to big a monthly assemblage telephone focused connected governance, funding, and the strategical absorption of its on-chain treasury.
April 10, 10 a.m.: Header to host a assemblage call discussing the HBR Foundation joining ERC3643, the non-profit’s standards, and the Header Asset Tokenization Studio.
Unlocks
April 8: Tensor (TNSR) to unlock 35.96% of its circulating proviso worthy $13.98 million.
April 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating proviso worthy $15.13 million.
April 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating proviso worthy $47.5 million.
April 12: Axie Infinity (AXS) to unlock 5.68% of its circulating proviso worthy $21.27 million.
April 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.37% of its circulating proviso worthy $15.12 million.
April 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.01% of its circulating proviso worthy $24.49 million.
Token Listings
April 9: IOST airdrop claims portal for a astir 1.7 cardinal IOST token airdrop to open.
April 10: Ren (REN), KonPay (KON), and Symbol (XYM) to be delisted from Bybit.
April 22: Hyperlane to airdrop its HYPER tokens.
Conferences
CoinDesk's Consensus is taking spot in Toronto connected May 14-16. Use codification DAYBOOK and prevention 15% connected passes. April 7: Liquidity 2025 Institutional Digital Asset Summit (Hong Kong)
April 7: VC Founders Summit (Paris)
April 8: Seine & Crypto Connect (Paris)
April 8-9: Digital Accord Summit 2025 (Paris)
April 8-10: Paris Blockchain Week
April 9: Blockchain & Finance - Evolution oregon Revolution? (Paris)
April 9: FinTech and Banking Unconference Colombia 2025 (Bogota)
April 9-10: FIBE Fintech Festival Berlin 2025
April 9-10: Mexico Finance & Fintech Summit 2025 (Mexico City)
April 9-10: Middle East Resilient Banking and Payments Symposium 2025 (Abu Dhabi)
April 10: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Nashville)
April 10: FinXtex Malaysia 2025 (Kuala Lumpur)
April 10: Institutional Crypto Conference (New York)
April 10: SheFi Sumit 2025 (Seoul)
April 10-11: BITE-CON 2025 Conference (Miami)
April 10-11: 2025 Fintech and Financial Institutions Research Conference (Philadelphia)
April 11-12: Strategy's OPNEXT Conference (Tysons, Va.)
April 12: Ethereum Argentina (Córdoba)
April 12-13: DeSci London 2025
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) personage Conor McGregor's crypto token, tied to Real World Gaming DAO (RWG), flopped successful its 28-hour presale, raising lone $392,315 of its $1,008,000 minimum goal, starring to afloat refunds of each USDC bids from 668 investors.
RWG blamed "challenging macroeconomic conditions" and the "distracting meme narrative" for the failure, pausing the motorboat to recalibrate, with refunds processed via Ethereum by 3:53 p.m. connected Sunday.
Despite the setback, RWG touted its usage of Axis Finance’s sealed-bid auction arsenic a transparent and just mechanism, though it couldn’t acceptable a clearing terms for the REAL token.
McGregor had pitched the token arsenic a "game changer" for crypto, not a personage gimmick, portion RWG plans a relaunch contempt the collapse.
Derivatives Positioning
Total bitcoin futures liquidations deed $58.8M successful the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for astir 75% of the tally. The figures amusement the positioning was bullish heading into the week, but not retired of the ordinary.
Open involvement successful ether futures is holding adjacent the caller grounds precocious of 2.24 cardinal ETH portion prices are falling arsenic traders abbreviated successful a slumping market.
ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, TRX, DOGE and ADA are seeing antagonistic perpetual backing rates, representing a bias for bearish abbreviated positions.
In Deribit's options market, traders chased short-duration BTC puts astatine strikes ranging from $78K to $70K. Both BTC and ETH options showed pricier puts retired to the June expiry.
Market Movements
BTC is down 8.12% from 4 p.m. ET Friday astatine $77,310.66 (24hrs: -6.59%)
ETH is down 16.7% astatine $1,514.40 (24hrs: -15.4%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 13.63% astatine 2,169.30 (24hrs: -11.83%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 10 bps astatine 2.92%
BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0059% (2.1374% annualized) connected Binance
DXY is down 0.11% astatine 102.91
Gold is up 0.85% astatine $3,037.6/oz
Silver is up 2.85% astatine $29.95/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -7.83% astatine 31,136.58
Hang Seng closed -13.22% astatine 19,828.30
FTSE is down 4.7% astatine 7,676.63
Euro Stoxx 50 is down 6.32% astatine 4,570.18
DJIA closed connected Friday -3.98% astatine 38,314.86
S&P 500 closed -5.97% astatine 5,074.08
Nasdaq closed -5.82% astatine 15,587.79
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -4.69% astatine 23,193.50
S&P 40 Latin America closed -6.47% astatine 2,294.60
U.S. 10-year Treasury complaint is down 3 bps astatine 4%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 3.98% astatine 4,906.75
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 4.3%% astatine 16,785.50
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 3.82% astatine 37,057.00
Bitcoin Stats:
BTC Dominance: 63.60 (0.45%)
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.01957 (-2.93%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 897 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $42.40
Total Fees: 4.31BTC / $354,774
CME Futures Open Interest: 137,695 BTC
BTC priced successful gold: 25.1 oz
BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 7.12%
Technical Analysis
XRP has dived beneath the horizontal enactment enactment astatine $1.95, confirming a head-and-shoulders bearish reversal pattern.
The breakdown could bring a notable downtrend to $1.07.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Friday astatine $293.61 (+4.01%), down 8.56% astatine $268.48 successful pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $160.55 (-5.98%), down 7.91% astatine $147.85
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed astatine C$13.53 (-10.28%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $11.30 (+0.62%), down 9.65% astatine $10.21
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $7.14 (-2.19%), down 6.02% astatine $6.71
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $7.18 (+0.42%), down 6.82% astatine $6.69
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $7.32 (-1.21%), down 8.61% astatine $6.69
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $12.32 (-3.37%), down 7.95% astatine $11.34
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $33.85 (-0.62%), down 12.85% astatine $29.50
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $44.63 (+4.69%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
Daily nett flow: -$64.9 million
Cumulative nett flows: $36.16 billion
Total BTC holdings ~ 1.12 million.
Spot ETH ETFs
Daily nett flow: $2.1 million
Cumulative nett flows: $2.37 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 3.38 million.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
The fig of users drafting flash loans from Aave, the starring decentralized concern protocol, roseate to 307, the highest since aboriginal August 2024.
Flash loans leverage Ethereum's atomicity, allowing users to get without posting collateral for a interest connected information the indebtedness is repaid successful in the aforesaid transaction successful which you borrowed successful the aforesaid transaction successful which the idiosyncratic borrowed funds.
These types of loans are usually drawn for arbitrage trades that question to nett from terms discrepancies betwixt 2 markets.
While You Were Sleeping
Goldman Boosts Recession Risk, Brings Forward Fed Rate-Cut Call (Bloomberg): Goldman Sachs chopped its U.S. fourth-quarter GDP forecast to 0.5% and raised the likelihood connected a recession to 45%. It forecast 130 ground points of Fed complaint cuts this twelvemonth starting successful June.
Bitcoin CME Futures Gap Lower After Trump Says 'There Won't Be a Deal With China' (CoinDesk): CME's bitcoin futures declined, indicating bearish sentiment, aft Trump ruled retired a China commercialized deal. Open involvement besides fell, suggesting imaginable withdrawal from integer assets.
Wall Street Starts to Speak Out Against Trump’s Tariffs (The Wall Street Journal): Bill Ackman urged a 90-day intermission to avert a “self-induced economical atomic winter,” portion Stan Druckenmiller said helium does not enactment tariffs exceeding 10%.
Hong Kong Regulator Releases Crypto Staking Rules for Licensed Exchanges (CoinDesk): Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission gave a greenish airy for virtual plus trading platforms (VATPs) and authorized virtual plus funds to connection staking services.
China Tries to Downplay the Trade War’s Effects connected Its Economy (The New York Times): Beijing accused Washington of undermining planetary commercialized norms to service unilateral goals, claiming U.S. tariffs endanger the corporate interests of the planetary community.
Pete Hegseth to Visit Panama arsenic U.S. Raises Pressure Over Canal (Financial Times): The U.S. Defense Secretary volition instrumentality portion successful the Central America Security Conference, gathering Panama President José Raúl Mulino Tuesday arsenic portion of a propulsion to fortify determination information ties.
In the Ether
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