Crypto in US 401(k) retirement plans may drive Bitcoin to $200K in 2025

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The inclusion of cryptocurrency successful US status plans could people a milestone for Bitcoin adoption and unlock billions of dollars successful caller capital, perchance pushing the plus supra $200,000 by the extremity of 2025, according to André Dragosch, the caput of European probe astatine crypto plus manager Bitwise.

President Donald Trump paved the mode for cryptocurrency inclusion in US 401(k) retirement plans aft signing an enforcement bid connected Aug. 7, granting Americans entree to integer assets done their status plans.

The inclusion of crypto successful 401(k) plans whitethorn beryllium adjacent much important for the Bitcoin (BTC) terms than the support of the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) successful January 2024, Dragosch said.

This “bullish” improvement whitethorn beryllium adjacent “bigger than the US Bitcoin ETF support itself,” signaling different $122 cardinal worthy of caller capital, assuming a humble 1% portfolio allocation, Dragosch told Cointelegraph during the Chain Reaction regular X spaces amusement connected Monday, throwing successful a terms prediction for bully measure:

“The authoritative prediction remains $200,000 by the extremity of the year.”

“If you look astatine 401(K) and defined-contribution status plans successful the US, they are huge,” said Dragosch, adding that 1% is simply a “relatively conservative” allocation estimation for the $12.2 trillion industry.

Is Bitcoin Headed for a 2025 Peak? Or is the 4-Year Cycle Dead? https://t.co/DckFjvkJIx

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) August 18, 2025

Including integer assets successful status plans volition alteration 401(k) portfolio managers to put successful Bitcoin ETFs, which whitethorn propulsion Bitcoin’s terms to caller all-time highs, flashing different optimistic awesome for Bitwise’s $200,000 Bitcoin terms people for the extremity of 2025.

Fed policy, status plans seen arsenic dual drivers

Based connected Bitwise’s survey for fiscal advisers, astir portfolio managers are much apt to urge a 2.5% oregon 3% Bitcoin allocation for status plans, suggesting much important inflows than the archetypal 1% allocation.

The archetypal Bitcoin inflows from status program managers whitethorn travel arsenic soon arsenic this fall, coinciding with the archetypal expected involvement complaint chopped by the US Federal Reserve, which whitethorn thrust Bitcoin to caller highs, said Dragosch, adding:

“If you spot further Fed complaint cuts, there’s decidedly a lawsuit for $200,000 by the extremity of the year.”

Markets are pricing successful an 83% accidental that the Fed volition support involvement rates dependable during the adjacent Federal Open Market Committee gathering connected Sept. 17, according to the latest estimates of the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Beyond improving monetary argumentation expectations, Bitcoin adoption whitethorn besides beryllium accelerated by the fiscal inducement of 401(k) program providers to connection Bitcoin ETF exposure.

BlackRock, Fidelity and Vanguard are among the largest status program providers successful the US. While Vanguard has yet to “greenlight” crypto ETFs, “BlackRock and Fidelity person a immense economical inducement to see these Bitcoin ETFs successful their modular plans,” said Dragosch.

BlackRock is the issuer of the largest Bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, with implicit $84 cardinal successful assets nether management, accounting for 57.5% of the full marketplace share, portion Fidelity’s ETF is the second-largest, holding $22.4 billion, accounting for 15.3% of the full marketplace share, Dune information shows.

Last Friday, US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins confirmed that the regulatory bureau is moving with the Trump medication to alteration retail investors’ status program entree to backstage equity, including crypto assets, but urged the necessity of “proper guardrails” astir alternate investments.