Drake Drops $1.5M USDT Bet on Argentina Despite Spain’s World Cup Edge

The rapper placed the stake done Stake, the crypto betting level helium has partnered with since a reported $100 cardinal woody successful 2022, astatine likelihood of +245. Kickoff is acceptable for 3 p.m. ET connected July 19 successful a last that pits Argentina’s bid for back-to-back titles against a young Spain broadside built astir Lamine Yamal. Drake shared the gaffe publicly, a wont that has made his win-loss grounds a moving storyline crossed societal media.

A Track Record Built connected Volume, Not Consistency

Drake has placed 87 tracked nationalist bets since February 2022, wagering $38.72 cardinal and collecting $37.17 cardinal successful returns, for a nett nonaccomplishment of $1.56 million, according to information compiled by thedrakecurse.com. According to the site’s data, helium has won 32 of those bets, a onslaught complaint of 36.8%, with an mean stake of $445,080.

The betting level Stake sharing Drake’s stake connected X connected Saturday.

Soccer has been his weakest category, costing him $1.67 cardinal crossed his bets, including a $1 cardinal wager connected Argentina against France successful the 2022 last that mislaid connected a technicality tied to other time, adjacent though Argentina won the match. Cricket is the lone athletics wherever helium shows a wide profit, up $997,500.

UFC events gully the astir enactment from him, with $14.45 cardinal placed crossed 26 bets, a class that includes a $1.45 cardinal triumph connected Jon Jones and a $1.595 cardinal nonaccomplishment connected Israel Adesanya. The losses person piled up since April 30, 2024, erstwhile Kendrick Lamar released “Euphoria” and reignited a rap feud that coincided with a unsmooth betting stretch.

Drake is down $5.7 cardinal crossed his nationalist wagers since that date, a agelong that includes a $1 cardinal nonaccomplishment connected Conor McGregor against Max Holloway this July and a $1 cardinal nonaccomplishment backing the Patriots successful the 2026 Super Bowl.

The ‘Drake Curse’ Meets Messi’s Second Act

Online, the stake has revived talk of the “Drake Curse,” the thought that teams and athletes helium backs thin to lose. The signifier traces backmost to his enactment of Kentucky hoops successful 2013 and Serena Williams astatine the 2015 U.S. Open, some of which ended successful upsets, and continued done Alabama’s 2019 title-game nonaccomplishment and the Golden State Warriors’ illness successful the 2016 NBA Finals.

Thedrakecurse.com counts astir 11 instances wherever helium stake connected a wide favourite that went connected to lose, including the Oklahoma City Thunder astatine -270 likelihood successful the 2025 NBA Finals. Drake addressed the estimation directly successful a Stake advertisement, saying helium does not judge successful a “curse” and calling himself a flawed bettor, pointing to the Toronto Raptors’ 2019 title arsenic grounds against it.

Analysts who way his betting grounds enactment that his highest-profile losses gully much attraction than his wins, which skews nationalist cognition adjacent arsenic his wide numbers amusement existent variance crossed hundreds of millions of dollars successful action.

Prediction Markets Split connected the Outcome

The time earlier the large match, prediction markets amusement a decent gap betwixt the betting favourite and wherever the wealth is flowing. On Polymarket, the World Cup victor declaration has drawn $4.28 cardinal successful full volume arsenic of July 18, with Spain priced astatine 59 cents per stock and Argentina astatine 40 cents, aft narrowing from a tract of much than 50 teams.

Despite Spain’s higher implied probability, Polymarket traders person committed much dollars to Argentina. The level shows $158 cardinal staked connected an Argentina triumph against $123.5 cardinal connected Spain, meaning the underdog is pulling much superior adjacent though it trails successful triumph probability.

Kalshi‘s abstracted Spain-versus-Argentina marketplace shows a akin thin toward Spain arsenic the favorite. The speech prices Spain astatine 59%, paying 1.65x connected a win, and Argentina astatine astir 41%, paying 2.34x. Reported volume figures for the Kalshi marketplace alteration by source, ranging from $1.25 cardinal to $1.29 billion, truthful the nonstop full remains unconfirmed.

What a Win oregon Loss Means for Drake

An Argentina triumph would nett Drake astir $3.67 cardinal successful nett connected this azygous bet, capable to erase astir of his losses since the 2024 losing agelong began. A Spain triumph would adhd different information constituent to the curse communicative and propulsion his shot losses good past $2.5 million.

Drake’s Stake concern has kept his bets successful nationalist presumption done livestreams and societal posts. The statement has besides drawn scrutiny, including lawsuits alleging the promotions glamorize gambling to younger audiences, claims Drake has pushed backmost connected publicly.

For traders watching the crypto betting and prediction market space, the last offers a real-time trial of however personage wagers determination alongside decentralized markets similar Polymarket and Kalshi, wherever likelihood displacement continuously with trading volume alternatively than sitting fixed astatine a azygous sportsbook line.