ETF Outflows Signal Risk Aversion Before FOMC, Powell Speech: Crypto Daybook Americas

2 hours ago

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) person recovered somewhat from precocious Tuesday lows, though some CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 80 indexes are little implicit 24 hours, signaling a wide marketplace weakness. Among the apical 100 coins, lone OKB and LINK person gained much than 3%.

The expert assemblage remains squarely focused connected Fed Chair Jerome Powell's code astatine Jackson Hole aboriginal this week.

"The caller sell‑off suggests that short‑term positioning remains fragile," Singapore-based QCP Capital said. "Risk assets whitethorn beryllium susceptible to further swings if Powell strikes a hawkish code oregon if upcoming labour oregon ostentation information astonishment to the upside."

Powell's code volition travel aft work of the minutes of the Fed's July meeting, owed aboriginal today.

The latest diminution successful BTC has been marked by profit-taking by short-term holders, oregon wallets with a past of owning coins for little than 155 days, according to CryptoQuant. The past clip this occurred, successful January, the bitcoin rally mislaid momentum adjacent $110,000, yet starring to a heavy sell-off successful March and aboriginal April.

Here's different motion of capitalist disquiet: Spot bitcoin and ether ETFs registered astir $1 cardinal successful full nett outflows connected Tuesday.

"At this stage, the marketplace broadly expects cuts, truthful overmuch of that is already priced in," Nicolai Sondergaard, a probe expert astatine Nansen, said successful an email, referring to U.S. involvement rates. "If Powell delivers precisely what’s anticipated, crypto could spot sideways-to-slightly-bearish action, a classical 'sell the news' dynamic."

Sondergaard said markets volition apt rally if Powell signals deeper oregon faster-than-expected complaint cuts. Stay alert!

What to Watch

  • Crypto
    • Aug. 20, 1 p.m.: Hedera (HBAR) plans to upgrade its mainnet to mentation 0.64. The process is expected to past astir 40 minutes, during which web services whitethorn acquisition impermanent interruptions.
    • Aug. 20: Qubic (QUBIC), the fastest blockchain ever recorded, volition acquisition its archetypal yearly halving event arsenic portion of a controlled emanation model. Although gross emissions stay fixed astatine 1 trillion QUBIC tokens per week, the adaptive pain complaint volition summation substantially — burning immoderate 28.75 trillion tokens and reducing nett effectual emissions to astir 21.25 trillion tokens.
    • Aug. 21: Layer-1 blockchain Viction (VIC), formerly known arsenic TomoChain, finalizes the Atlas hard fork upgrade connected mainnet. The update launched connected July 23. All node operators indispensable implicit the upgrade by Aug. 21 to guarantee afloat web functionality.
  • Macro
    • Aug. 20, 11 a.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller volition talk connected “Payments” astatine the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025. Watch live.
    • Aug. 20, 2 p.m.: The Fed volition merchandise the minutes from the July 29-30 FOMC meeting.
    • Aug. 21, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases July shaper terms ostentation data.
      • PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%
      • PPI YoY Prev. 1.7%
    • Aug. 21, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (flash) August U.S. information connected manufacturing and services activity.
      • Composite PMI Prev. 55.1
      • Manufacturing PMI Est. 49.5 vs. Prev. 49.8
      • Services PMI Est. 54.2 vs. Prev. 55.7
    • Aug. 21-23: The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, which is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and held annually successful Jackson Hole, Wyoming, brings unneurotic planetary cardinal bankers and policymakers to sermon cardinal economical challenges and monetary policy.
    • Aug. 22, 8 a.m.: Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases (final) Q2 GDP maturation data.
      • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 0.7% vs. Prev. 0.6%
      • GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.8%
    • Aug. 22, 10:00 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers his keynote code astatine the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
    • Aug. 22, 5 p.m.: The Central Bank of Paraguay announces its monetary argumentation decision.
      • Policy Rate Prev. 6%
    • Aug. 22, 8 p.m.: Peru’s National Institute of Statistics and Informatics releases Q2 GDP YoY maturation data.
      • GDP Growth Rate YoY Prev. 3.9%
  • Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
    • Aug. 25: Windtree Therapeutics (WINT), pre-market, N/A
    • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • Aug. 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 8.53% of its circulating proviso worthy $57.59 million.
    • Aug. 20: Kaito (KAITO) to unlock 8.82% of its circulating proviso worthy $27.55 million.
  • Token Launches
    • Aug. 20: DecentralGPT (DGC) to database connected Binance Alpha and Bitget.
    • Aug. 20: Mog Coin (MOG) to database connected EdgeX.
    • Aug. 20: MYX Finance (MYX) to database connected Coinone with MYX/KRW pair.
    • Aug. 20: Palladium Network (PLLD) to database connected Poloniex with PLLD/USDT pair.
    • Aug. 20: Sapien (SAPIEN) to database connected Binance Alpha.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known arsenic State of Crypto) is simply a one-day boutique lawsuit held successful Washington connected Sept. 10 that allows wide counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to conscionable with nationalist officials liable for crypto authorities and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use codification CDB10 for 10% disconnected your registration done Aug. 31.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • Solana token issuance level Pump.fun has crossed $800.6 cardinal successful beingness revenue, Dune data shows, mostly from its 1% swap fee, with regular intake averaging implicit $1 million. This puts it among a tiny database of platforms earning precocious revenues successful the crypto space.
  • Pump primitively collected fees erstwhile tokens “graduated” to Raydium, but present earns from its in-house DEX, PumpSwap. The exemplary has proven sticky contempt competition.
  • LetsBonk concisely overtook Pump successful graduated tokens past month, driven by its Raydium LaunchLab integration and Bonk assemblage push, but mislaid crushed arsenic apical memecoin deployers migrated backmost to Pump.
  • Pump’s token ICO past period raised $600 cardinal successful 12 minutes, with the level present moving buybacks supra marketplace terms to stabilize trading. This is indicative of however the launchpad has go an plus successful itself.
  • In contrast, LetsBonk gross has collapsed to nether $30,000 a time from astir $1 cardinal earlier this month, showing the volatility of memecoin platforms competing for flow.
  • New entrant Token Mill is trying to basal retired with a “King of the Mill” mechanics successful which fees are utilized to bargain and pain the highest-volume token each 30 minutes. The purpose is to gamify volatility arsenic a maturation loop.
  • Solana, meanwhile, mislaid its crown arsenic the ascendant memecoin concatenation to Coinbase's Base, which has tied token issuance into decentralized societal media via Zora. On Monday, Base hosted astir 58,000 caller memecoins versus 33,000 connected Solana.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Leveraged crypto futures bets worthy $448 cardinal person been liquidated successful the past 24 hours. Most were longs, which means important bullish leverage has been cleared from the market.
  • Open involvement successful BTC, DOGE and XRP has declined, indicating that the terms driblet has yet to trigger a surge successful caller bearish bets.
  • Meanwhile, LINK, HYPE and SUI person seen increases successful unfastened interest, portion OI has held level successful ETH, according to information root Coinglass.
  • Perpetual backing rates for astir large cryptocurrencies proceed to stay mildly positive, indicating a bias towards agelong positions. The other is the lawsuit for ADA and XMR.
  • Solana futures unfastened involvement connected CME remains elevated adjacent grounds highs supra 4.6 cardinal SOL, with the annualized three-month premium rising to 16% from 12% past week. The uptick indicates bullish superior inflows.
  • BTC unfastened involvement is opening to recover, present astatine 145.76K BTC, the highest since precocious July. Premium remains beneath 10%. In ETH's case, the premium again faded the spike supra 10%, with unfastened involvement approaching the 2 cardinal ETH mark.
  • On Deribit, short-dated (one-week) and near-dated (coming months) BTC and ETH puts proceed to commercialized astatine a premium to calls, reflecting concerns astir downside risks.
  • Flows implicit the OTC web Paradigm featured accrued enactment successful enactment options tied to bitcoin and ether, with enactment crossed outrights, spreads, and calendar dispersed strategies.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 0.4% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday astatine $113,757.49 (24hrs: -1.53%)
  • ETH is up 1.55% astatine $4,217.10 (24hrs: -1.62%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 1.06% astatine 3,983.85 (24hrs: -2.26%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps astatine 2.94%
  • BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0022% (2.4276% annualized) connected Binance
CD20 (Aug. 20 2025) (CoinDesk)
  • DXY is unchanged astatine 98.29
  • Gold futures are up 0.29% astatine $3,368.50
  • Silver futures are down 0.70% astatine $37.07
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 1.51% astatine 42,888.55
  • Hang Seng closed up 0.17% astatine 25,165.94
  • FTSE is up 0.17% astatine 9,204.66
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged astatine 5,483.55
  • DJIA closed connected Tuesday unchanged astatine 44,922.27
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.59% astatine 6,411.37
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.46% astatine 21,314.95
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.35% astatine 27,823.88
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 2.02% astatine 2,637.60
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is down 0.7 bps astatine 4.295%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.14% astatine 6,423.50
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.18% astatine 23,427.50
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.18% astatine 44,919.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 59.8% (+0.48%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0371 (2.74%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 962 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $55.71
  • Total fees: 3.27 BTC / $374,274
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 145,760 BTC
  • BTC priced successful gold: 34.2 oz.
  • BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 9.68%

Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average. (TradingView)
  • While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes precocious rallied supra their January highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has yet to bash so.
  • The regular illustration shows the DJIA bulls are struggling to found a foothold supra the trendline connecting December-February highs.
  • As a barometer of hazard appetite, a crook little could adhd to the bearish momentum successful cryptocurrencies.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed connected Tuesday astatine $336.57 (-7.43%), +7.91% astatine $363.19 successful pre-market
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed astatine $302.07 (-5.82%), +5.93% astatine $319.98
  • Circle (CRCL): closed astatine $135.23 (-4.49%), +5.98% astatine $143.31
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $24.09 (-10.06%), +10.23% astatine $26.56
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed astatine $59.51 (-6.09%), +3.68% astatine $61.70
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $15.17 (-5.72%), +6.46% astatine $16.15
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $11.96 (-2.92%), +3.09% astatine $12.33
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $14.35 (-1.24%), +0.63% astatine $14.44
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $9.36 (-4.88%), +5.13% astatine $9.84
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $26.6 (-5.97%), +5.30% astatine $28.01
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $31.89 (-5.55%), +5.07% astatine $33.50
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $27.1 (+1.96%), -1.37% astatine $26.73
  • SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed astatine $18.38 (-8.65%), +6.42% astatine $19.56

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily nett flows: -$523.3 million
  • Cumulative nett flows: $54.31 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily nett flows: -$422.2 million
  • Cumulative nett flows: $12.07 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~6.35 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

Open involvement  successful  ETH CME options. (Velo)
  • Open interest, oregon the fig of progressive contracts, successful CME-listed ether options has accrued to 226.9K ETH, the astir since September.
  • The summation shows increasing organization request for hedging instruments tied to Ethereum's autochthonal token.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether

(Greeny/X)(Tom Lee Tracker/X)(Udi Wertheimer/X)(Altcoin Sherpa/X)(Nate Geraci/X)(sassal.eth/X)
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