Ether’s August rally could lead to September downtrend, history suggests

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Ether’s terms has climbed 25% since the opening of August, but humanities information suggests the cryptocurrency could suffer steam successful September.

Only clip volition archer if Ether (ETH) plays retired otherwise this year, with billions flowing into spot Ether ETFs and treasury companies.

Crypto trader CryptoGoos said successful an X station connected Friday, “ETH seasonality successful September during post-halving years is typically negative. Will this clip beryllium different?”

Ether is trading astatine $4,759 astatine the clip of publication, up astir $952 from its Aug. 1 opening terms of $3,807, according to CoinMarketCap. The crypto plus crossed caller highs supra $4,867 connected Friday pursuing dovish comments from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell astatine the Jackson Hole symposium. 

History suggests caution for Ether during September

Powell hinted astatine a imaginable involvement complaint chopped adjacent month, which galore successful the crypto marketplace presumption arsenic a imaginable bullish catalyst. 

However, past suggests caution for Ether arsenic determination person lone been 3 instances since 2016 wherever Ether posted gains successful August, and each was followed by a September decline, according to CoinGlass.

Since 2016, September has delivered an mean nonaccomplishment of 6.42% for Ether. Source: CoinGlass

In 2017, Ether surged 92.86% successful August earlier dropping 21.65% the adjacent month. 

The signifier repeated successful 2020, with a 25.32% summation successful August followed by a 17.08% pullback successful September. In 2021, Ether climbed 35.62% successful August earlier slipping 12.55% successful September.

Ether gained successful the last 3 months of 2016 and 2020

Interestingly, adjacent though September saw losses successful 2016 and 2020, Ether posted upside successful each of the pursuing 3 months successful some years.

However, this September could play retired otherwise from erstwhile years, with spot Ether ETFs and Ether treasury companies present, which were not progressive during past August rallies. 

On Aug. 11, the full Ether held by companies with crypto treasuries surpassed $13 cardinal successful value, arsenic the cryptocurrency’s terms surged past $4,300.

Cryptocurrencies, Ethereum PriceSource: Satoshi Stacker

On Saturday, blockchain quality steadfast Arkham reported that BitMine president Tom Lee bought different $45 cardinal worthy of Ether for the steadfast bringing BitMine's full stack up to $7 billion.

August has been a important period for spot Ether ETFs

Meanwhile, spot Ether ETFs person seen astir $2.79 cardinal nett inflows successful August alone, portion spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs posted astir $1.2 cardinal successful nett outflows implicit the aforesaid period, according to Farside.

Related: ETH information and instrumentality of capitalist hazard appetite pave way to $5K Ether price

NovaDius Wealth Management president Nate Geraci said successful a station connected Saturday that determination has been a “notable shift” successful the inflows betwixt spot Ether ETFs and spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance, which measures its wide marketplace share, has fallen 5.88% implicit the past 30 days to 58.19%, which galore marketplace participants typically property to superior rotating into the broader crypto marketplace extracurricular of BTC.

Magazine: ETH ‘god candle,’ $6K next? Coinbase tightens security: Hodler’s Digest, Aug. 17 – 23

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