Federal Reserve Set to Hold Rates at 3.75% as Traders Price 99% Odds for April 29 FOMC

Key Takeaways:

• CME Fedwatch puts a Fed clasp astatine 99% for the April 29 FOMC meeting, down from a 6.2% hike accidental 1 period ago.
• Polymarket traders person enactment $20.9 cardinal into the 2026 complaint cuts market, with 40% pricing successful zero cuts this year.
• Kalshi shows 84% likelihood the Fed holds successful July, arsenic the March 2026 CPI astatine 3.3% keeps complaint chopped expectations limited.

Traders Price Fed Hold astatine 99% for April FOMC arsenic Polymarket and Kalshi Signal No Cuts Through Summer

The CME Fedwatch Tool shows a 99% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve volition support its people complaint astatine 350 to 375 ground points erstwhile it meets this week connected April 29. The remaining 1% reflects a slim accidental of a 25-basis-point hike. The probability of a complaint chopped sits astatine zero.

That statement has held steadfast for astatine slightest a week. One period ago, the representation looked somewhat different. The hike probability stood astatine 6.2%, suggesting immoderate traders were hedging against an upside astonishment successful economical data. That interest has since faded.

Source: CME Fedwatch instrumentality connected April 26, 2026.

Polymarket‘s June FOMC market tells a akin story. Traders determination delegate a 93% probability to nary alteration successful rates astatine the June 16 to 17 meeting. A 25-basis-point alteration carries 4.5% odds, portion a hike comes successful astatine 1.6%. The marketplace has recorded much than $10.5 cardinal successful full trading volume, with the “50+ bps decrease” bracket unsocial drafting implicit $2.8 cardinal contempt its sub-1% implied probability.

The July outlook connected Polymarket reflects a spot much uncertainty, though the ascendant presumption remains unchanged. The “No change” result holds an 85% probability for the July 28 to 29 FOMC meeting. A 25-basis-point chopped comes successful astatine 10%, a hike astatine 3.4%, and a larger chopped astatine 2.4%. That marketplace launched March 19, 2026, and has since logged $3.9 cardinal successful full volume.

Kalshi‘s parallel July market lands successful the aforesaid range. Traders determination enactment an 84% probability connected the Fed holding rates astatine the July 29 meeting. A 25-basis-point chopped carries 12% odds, and a hike sits astatine 4%. Total volume connected that declaration stands astatine $79,441.

The operator down the clasp statement is simply a operation of a March 2026 CPI speechmaking of 3.3% year-over-year and an unemployment complaint of 4.3%. Those figures person fixed Fed officials small crushed to determination successful either direction, and traders look to agree.

The broadest presumption of 2026 argumentation comes from Polymarket’s “How galore Fed complaint cuts successful 2026?” market, which has generated $20.9 cardinal successful trading volume since launching successful September 2025. As of precocious April, the starring result is zero cuts, priced astatine 40%. One chopped carries 28% odds, and 2 cuts beryllium astatine 16%.

Source: Polymarket connected April 26, 2026.

Kalshi’s equivalent market echoes that positioning. Exactly zero cuts leads with a 39.9% probability, followed by 1 chopped astatine 27.5% and 2 cuts astatine 15.8%. Total volume connected that marketplace has reached $3.18 million.

Source: Kalshi connected April 26, 2026.

Both platforms resoluteness their yearly chopped markets utilizing the aforesaid framework. Each 25-basis-point simplification counts arsenic 1 cut. A 50-basis-point determination counts arsenic two. Emergency cuts extracurricular of scheduled meetings are included. Kalshi closes its marketplace Dec. 31, 2026, with payouts projected for Jan. 1, 2027.

Traders volition adjacent ticker the April jobs study and updated CPI information for immoderate signs that the calculus is shifting. Until those numbers arrive, the market’s moving presumption is that the Fed stays put.