Fidelity macro lead calls $65K Bitcoin bottom in 2026, end of bull cycle

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Bitcoin whitethorn person ended its humanities four-year cycle, signaling an incoming twelvemonth of downside, contempt wide expert expectations for an extended rhythm driven by regulatory tailwinds.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) $125,000 all-time precocious connected Oct. 6 whitethorn person signaled the apical of the existent four-year Bitcoin halving cycle, some successful presumption of “price and time,” according to Jurrien Timmer, the manager of planetary macroeconomic probe astatine plus absorption steadfast Fidelity.

“While I stay a secular bull connected Bitcoin, my interest is that Bitcoin whitethorn good person ended different 4-year rhythm halving phase,” wrote Timmer successful a Thursday X post. “Bitcoin winters person lasted astir a year, truthful my consciousness is that 2026 could beryllium a “year off” (or “off year”) for Bitcoin. Support is astatine $65-75k.”

Crypto marketplace whitethorn spot much upside connected fundamental, regulatory tailwinds

Timmer’s investigation contradicts different crypto analysts, who expect the increasing fig of regulated crypto concern products to pb to an extended bull marketplace rhythm successful 2026.

Notably, Tom Shaughnessy, the co-founder of crypto probe steadfast Delphi Digital, expects caller all-time highs for Bitcoin successful 2026, aft capitalist sentiment recovers from the record $19 billion crypto marketplace clang that occurred astatine the opening of October.

“We are moving done a one-time disastrous 10/10 liquidation lawsuit that broke the market,” wrote Shaughnessy successful a Friday X post, adding:

“Once that’s worked through, we deed $BTC ATHs successful 2026 arsenic prices rubber set to bespeak the advancement extracurricular 10/10.”

Shaughnessy said crypto marketplace valuations volition beryllium driven by the industry’s “fundamental progress,” including increasing Wall Street implementations and regulatory developments.

Policy experts are besides predicting a important twelvemonth of advancement connected US cryptocurrency legislation, a improvement that whitethorn bring much organization concern to the crypto space.

“I bash expect 2026 to beryllium different meaningful twelvemonth for crypto regulation, but it volition look antithetic from the past one,” Cathy Yoon, wide counsel astatine crypto probe steadfast Temporal and at Solana artifact gathering strategy Harmonic.

“With stablecoin authorities present passed, the existent interaction volition travel from implementation - examinations, disclosures, and however these assets integrate into payments and fiscal infrastructure,” she told Cointelegraph.

However, investors’ societal sentiment took a important deed earlier this week arsenic Bitcoin dipped beneath $85,000. Bearish commentary has since dominated societal media platforms, including X, Reddit and Telegram, according to marketplace quality level Santiment.

Meanwhile, the crypto industry’s best-performing traders by returns, who are tracked arsenic “smart money” traders connected Nansen’s blockchain quality platform, are besides betting connected a short-term diminution for astir starring cryptocurrencies.

While astute wealth traders were nett abbreviated connected Bitcoin for $123 million, the aforesaid cohort was betting connected Ether’s (ETH) terms increase, with $475 cardinal worthy of cumulative nett agelong positions, Nansen information shows.