First bear-market trend line reclaim since 2025: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the last week of August adjacent its highest levels since mid-May arsenic its bear-market betterment reaches a captious stage.

Key points:

• Bitcoin sees a play candle adjacent supra its 50-week exponential moving mean (EMA) for the archetypal clip since November 2025.
• Amid its champion August gains successful astir a decade, BTC/USD returns capitalist cohorts to nett profit, portion caller wealth enters astatine $73,000.
• Fed seat Kevin Warsh is successful the spotlight up of the Jackson Hole symposium.
• US PCE information volition beryllium released connected Wednesday arsenic markets proceed to respond to past week’s US Treasury indebtedness buyback.
• Investor superior returns to exchange-traded products arsenic Bitcoin ETF netflows deed $1.9 cardinal past week.

Bitcoin scrapes play adjacent supra cardinal resistance

Bitcoin reached $79,550 past week, its highest levels since aboriginal May arsenic a five-day rally brought gains of up to 27%. BTC/USD closed past week astatine $77,727 connected Bitstamp, per information from TradingView. This signified a reclaim of its 50-week exponential moving mean (EMA), a cardinal absorption trendline that presently sits astatine $77,752.

The 50-week EMA is commonly brought into absorption by traders during Bitcoin carnivore markets. The past candle adjacent supra this important enactment of absorption was successful aboriginal November 2025. In anterior carnivore markets, BTC has retested the 50-week EMA earlier capitulating into its eventual macro lows. This has meant immoderate traders stay unconvinced by past week’s beardown terms action.

BTC/USD one-week illustration with 50 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Prior to the close, crypto trader and expert Rekt Capital warned that not lone the 50-week EMA but the full country astir $80,000 figured arsenic absorption for bulls to overcome, portion terms truthful acold has topped retired lower.

“Each Bear Market Relief Rally frankincense acold would retrace sharply successful the week pursuing a beardown breakout rally,” helium wrote successful ongoing X analysis. 

“Next weeks volition beryllium crucial. But possibly adjacent already adjacent week we’ll cognize whether Bitcoin tin prolong these highs oregon not.”

An accompanying illustration showed what Rekt Capital subsequently called a bid of macro little highs, perchance reinforcing the carnivore marketplace contempt caller strength.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital connected X.com

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported connected traders’ expectations of 2026 playing retired successful a akin mode to erstwhile carnivore markets, with 2022 showing the astir similarities successful presumption of timing. 

“If past repeats, Bitcoin volition effort to get arsenic adjacent arsenic imaginable to ~$93,000 successful 2027. But first, Bitcoin needs to afloat corroborate its Bear Market bottommost and afloat corroborate a interruption of the Macro Downtrend,” Rekt Capital added.

BTC terms connected way for champion August successful 9 years

Bitcoin consolidated implicit the weekend, with terms circling $77,500 astatine the clip of writing, inactive up 22% month-to-date successful its champion performing August since 2017, per information from CoinGlass.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

The run-up saw the play candle reclaim respective cardinal terms points, including the aggregate outgo basis for short-term holders (STHs) — wallets holding a UTXO for little than 155 days — astatine $68,700. Onchain analytics level CryptoQuant frankincense calculated STH nett profitability astatine conscionable implicit 11%.

“At the aforesaid time, Long-Term Holder profitability moved from astir breakeven to +18.5%, portion New Money profitability roseate from -1.4% to +12.7%,” it reported connected Monday.

Examining the outgo ground of UTXOs arsenic a whole, CryptoQuant noted that alleged “new money” present has a breakeven constituent astatine $73,000, supra some the STH and LTH outgo basis, leaving little borderline for downside extortion should BTC/USD reverse to effort to find caller enactment lower.

“That makes the 68K-73K portion the cardinal country to watch. Holding supra it would suggest that the profitability reset is becoming structurally durable. Losing it would rapidly propulsion a ample information of caller buyers backmost into loss,” it added.

Bitcoin UTXO organisation by cohort property (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Fed’s Warsh faces the euphony astatine Jackson Hole

All eyes are connected the Federal Reserve and seat Kevin Warsh this week arsenic the yearly Jackson Hole economical symposium gets underway. 

The event, which volition diagnostic cardinal bankers from implicit 70 countries, sees Warsh’s archetypal keynote code arsenic Fed seat and his archetypal nationalist speaking quality since the property league that followed the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Warsh has maintained a tight-lipped stance connected fiscal policy, particularly erstwhile it comes to aboriginal interest-rate changes — a taxable to which crypto and hazard assets are sensitive. Recent ostentation information has supported a softening of argumentation going forward, but the ever-present menace of oil-price spikes from the US-Iran warfare has kept markets wary. 

The latest information from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows 63.1% likelihood of rates remaining astatine their existent 3.50-3.75% level aft the September FOMC meeting.

Fed target-rate probability examination for September FOMC gathering (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Speaking to CNBC past week, Thierry Wizman, planetary overseas speech and rates strategist astatine Macquarie Group, warned that Warsh present had to juggle the power of the Treasury with his program to trim the marketplace engagement of the Fed.

Wizman told the web that “were Warsh to awesome that helium would enactment ‘dovish’ indefinitely, it could beryllium self-defeating for him and the Treasury, since ostentation breakevens would emergence further, possibly undoing the stableness successful the nominal semipermanent yields that [Treasury Secretary] Scott Bessent is trying to achieve.”

A survey of money managers by Bank of America, quoted by Barchart and others, produced 72% likelihood of nary complaint hikes occurring earlier the US midterm elections successful November. On policy, statement coalesced astir a “no landing” script implicit the adjacent 12 months — wherever the system avoids recession amid beardown maturation and debased unemployment. 

Yield curve power speech returns aft Treasury indebtedness move

Beyond geopolitics, a determination by the US Treasury past week to at slightest treble the size of its indebtedness buyback purchases to $4 cardinal per cognition was the cardinal marketplace mover past week. The announcement sparked a Bitcoin abbreviated compression that went connected to wipe retired a grounds $3.1 billion of crypto abbreviated positions implicit 2 days.

The grade of the absorption sparked suggestions that Bitcoin was erstwhile again anticipating planetary liquidity-regime changes amid the rising outgo of authorities indebtedness financing worldwide.

“The involution ignited a determination successful assets delicate to the outlook for liquidity, including golden and Bitcoin. That hints astatine marketplace concerns implicit currency debasement should measures similar quantitative easing marque a instrumentality to incorporate involvement rates,” trading assets Mosaic Asset Company wrote successful the latest variation of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic.

Mosaic argued that the involution represented not a specified liquidity determination but a signifier of output curve power (YCC), with short-term bonds issued to screen the outgo of the added buybacks. Crypto commentators person agelong expected YCC to beryllium each but guaranteed to forestall authorities bankruptcy.

“YCC is the extremity game. When it is yet implicitly oregon explicitly declared, it’s crippled implicit for the worth of the USD vs. golden and much importantly Bitcoin,” Arthur Hayes, erstwhile CEO of crypto speech BitMEX, forecast successful a 2022 blog post. 

“YCC is however we get to $1 cardinal Bitcoin and $10,000 to $20,000 gold.”

The time anterior to Warsh’s appearance, meanwhile, brings a important portion of US macroeconomic information that could skew the temper for markets. 

The July people of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, owed for merchandise connected Wednesday, is known to beryllium the Fed’s “preferred” ostentation gauge. In June it saw its first month-on-month driblet since 2020.

Consensus astir the upcoming people is for a 0.1% monthly increase, with the year-on-year summation cooling further to 3.6% versus 3.7% successful June. 

PCE scale one-month % alteration (screenshot). Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Bitcoin ETFs spot strongest inflows successful 10 months

Crypto money inflows stay highly reactive to terms volatility, with past week’s inflows to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) breaking records.

Related: Bitcoin has ‘largely purged’ froth that preceded 50% driblet from $126K: BlackRock

Data from UK-based concern institution Farside Investors shows the ETF cohort taking successful $1.9 cardinal implicit the week’s 5 trading days — the strongest play tally since October 2025, erstwhile Bitcoin deed its latest all-time highs of $126,200.

Thursday saw peculiarly beardown show arsenic BTC/USD extended gains beyond $70,000, with BlackRock’s ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), seeing nett inflows of much than fractional a cardinal dollars.

“We saw nett inflows connected each trading time past week, which suggests renewed capitalist involvement successful Bitcoin,” Gracie Lin, main enforcement serviceman of crypto speech OKX SG, told Bloomberg. 

“The question present is whether that momentum volition hold. After specified a beardown determination successful Bitcoin, immoderate profit-taking wouldn’t beryllium surprising.”

US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

The results heavy opposition with enactment conscionable 2 months ago, with June seeing unprecedented nett outflows of much than $4.5 billion. At the extremity of past week, full August inflows stood astatine $2.38 billion, a caller year-to-date record.