First Mover Asia: India Commodity Price Increase Stemming From Russia Invasion Could Hurt Crypto Investment

Good morning. Here’s what’s happening:

Markets: Bitcoin's terms slips, aft the almighty rally earlier successful the week appeared to stall.

Insights: Russia-Ukraine warfare starts to impact Asian economies successful ways that could ripple done the crypto industry.

Technician's take: BTC downside could persist into the Asia trading day.

Catch the latest episodes of CoinDesk TV for insightful interviews with crypto manufacture leaders and analysis.

And delight sign up for First Mover, our regular newsletter putting the latest moves successful crypto markets successful context.

Bitcoin (BTC): $43,835 -0.1%

Ether (ETH): $2,944 -0.1%

The almighty terms rally witnessed successful bitcoin earlier this week appeared to stall connected Wednesday, arsenic Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the U.S. cardinal bank's program to rise involvement rates this period for the archetypal clip since 2018.

"Continued uncertainty astir the projected U.S. Fed complaint hikes successful March and increasing tensions successful Eastern Europe plagued the marketplace for astir of February, though prices rebounded astatine the month’s end," the crypto speech Kraken wrote Wednesday successful an emailed report.

Katie Stockton astatine Fairlead Strategies sees prices perchance headed higher, toward the $50,000.

"Our short-term gauges are pointing higher, but hazard is heightened successful this environment," Stockton wrote Wednesday successful an email.

The bittersweet saga of the warfare successful Eastern Europe seemed apt to worsen successful the days ahead, if not beyond, arsenic Russia escalated its rocket attacks connected large Ukraine cities, a 40-mile subject convoy barreled toward the superior metropolis Kyiv and Ukrainians continued a hopeless and progressively resourceful defence of the country.

Wednesday besides saw the UN General Assembly ballot overwhelmingly to condemn Russia's unprovoked onslaught with 141 subordinate countries voting successful favour of the solution and conscionable five, including Russia voting against it. China, India, Pakistan, Vietnam and India were among 35 countries that abstained.

At the clip of publication, bitcoin was astir level implicit the erstwhile 24 hours, conscionable beneath $44,000. Ether, the 2nd largest crypto by marketplace cap, was besides astir wherever it stood a time ago. Most large cryptos were disconnected slightly.

The Russian penetration of Ukraine is inactive successful its aboriginal days, but it is already starting to impact Asian economies successful ways that volition apt ripple done the crypto industry.

Commodity prices roseate successful India, which is 1 of the biggest importers of Ukrainian sunflower oil. An summation successful commodity prices could devour into India investors’ skyrocketing appetite for cryptocurrencies. India remains 1 of the world’s largest crypto markets successful the satellite acknowledgment to a young populace and rising disposable incomes. Some 20 cardinal Indians signed up for trading accounts successful 2021, according to a January Economic Times story. CoinSwitch Kuber, India's largest crypto exchange, saw a 3,500% emergence successful transaction volumes and reached 14 cardinal users recently.

The country, which relies connected Russia for astir fractional its arms and different subject equipment, has been cagey successful its effect to the attack. It was 1 of conscionable 35 countries connected Wednesday to abstain successful a UN General Assembly ballot to condemn the Russian action. (Five countries, including Russia, voted against the resolution.) Last week, a fig of officials adjacent suggested that they mightiness assistance Russia bypass sanctions by establishing rupee accounts for executing commercialized transactions.

China, Pakistan and Vietnam, different ample importer of Russian subject ware, besides abstained 8 years agone successful a ballot condemning Russia's annexation of the Crimea, which immoderate Russia experts person said foreshadowed its Ukraine goals.

Elsewhere, Taiwan, whose autochthonal dollar saw further suppression from traders arsenic markets weighed the anticipation of a China, emboldened by Russia's attack, ratcheting up its subject beingness astir the island.

In Malaysia, crypto speech Binance announced a strategical concern successful section speech MX Global, 1 of the 4 recognized marketplace operator-digital plus exchanges that received afloat support by the Securities Commission Malaysia successful July 2021. Malaysia’s crypto marketplace is successful its aboriginal stages, but it is besides growing, with section startups similar analytics work CoinGecko becoming immoderate of the most-used crypto work providers tools successful caller years.

Bitcoin (BTC) struggled to interruption supra the $44,000 absorption level arsenic overbought conditions appeared connected the charts. Momentum is starting to slow, which could constituent to a deeper pullback into the Asia trading day.

Still, buyers could stay progressive astatine little enactment levels, peculiarly astatine $40,000. At that point, the pullback could stabilize connected intraday charts.

On the regular chart, determination is stronger absorption astatine $46,000, which capped the terms rally successful aboriginal February. Buyers volition request to marque a decisive interruption supra absorption successful bid to reverse the three-month agelong downtrend.

Most indicators are neutral, though determination has been a nonaccomplishment of downside momentum connected the play chart, which could beryllium a affirmative improvement this month.

8 a.m. HKT/SGT (12 a.m. UTC): New Zealand ANZ commodity price

8:30 a.m. HKT/SGT (12:30 a.m. UTC): Jibun (Japan) Bank Services purchasing managers scale (Feb.)

8:30 a.m. HKT/SGT (12:30 a.m. UTC): Australia gathering permits (Jan. MoM/YoY)

8:30 a.m. HKT/SGT (12:30 a.m. UTC): Australia commercialized equilibrium (Jan. MoM)

1 p.m. HKT/SGT (5 a.m. UTC): Japan assurance scale (Feb.)

"First Mover" hosts explored whether crypto tin find a harmless haven relation successful Russia-Ukraine crisis. Tanvi Ratna, CBDC adept astatine Policy 4.0 shared her views. Premiums for bitcoin are soaring connected exchanges servicing Ukraine and Russia, and Knox Ridley of I/O Fund provided his marketplace analysis. Plus, Gitcoin laminitis Kevin Owocki explained however crypto tin beryllium utilized for nationalist good.

Why Crypto Networks Should Preserve Russian Propaganda: The net is the accusation war’s venue. Social giants Twitter and Facebook whitethorn delete Russian misinformation, but there’s a beardown lawsuit that “fake news” should beryllium preserved.

"Putin is much isolated from the satellite than helium has ever been." (U.S. President Joe Biden) ... "The ruble has already mislaid 30% of its worth and Putin himself is to blame." (U.S. President Joe Biden) ... "Remember past period erstwhile we explained however Credit Suisse had securitised its yacht and pitchy loans to oligarchs and tycoons? Turns retired the slope didn't similar the publicity: it's present asking investors to destruct the documents citing a “data leak to the media” (Financial Times superior markets newsman Robert Smith) ... "Stand with the radical of Ukraine. Now accepting cryptocurrency donations. Bitcoin, Ethereum and USDT." (Twitter relationship of Ukraine) .... "Grenada's typical to the WTO, who told @MuyaoShen successful December helium was leaving Tron, follows up his earlier ailment astir Ukraine (possibly?) not rewarding donors by saying it's his "duty" to support tron idiosyncratic interests." (CoinDesk Editor Nik De connected Twitter) ... “Tot the grade cryptocurrencies are a means to evade instrumentality enforcement and nationalist information that’s not thing we should tolerate.” (Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell)