Former UFC Champion Conor McGregor Risks $100K on Viral 3-2 World Cup Prophecy With a $3.6M Payday

The erstwhile UFC champion shared the exact-score wager done 1xBet up of the 3 p.m. EDT kickoff connected Sunday, July 19. The stake indispensable deed wrong regularisation time, meaning Argentina indispensable pb 3-2 aft 90 minutes positive stoppage time, careless of what happens successful other clip oregon a punishment shootout.

Conor McGregor’s X station showing disconnected his latest wager.

McGregor explained that the wager was inspired by “some feline connected the internet,” referring to a July 11, 2021, station that declared: “Argentina conscionable bushed Spain astatine the 2026 World Cup final, 3-2.” The dormant prediction resurfaced aft some countries reached the final, turning an aged societal media station into 1 of the match’s astir salient betting narratives.

A $3.6 Million Payday Hangs connected One Exact Score

At likelihood adjacent 36.00, McGregor’s $100,000 stake could instrumentality astir $3.6 cardinal if the precise effect materializes. Any different score, including an Argentina triumph by a antithetic margin, would effect successful a loss.

The July 11, 2021, X post. Today, connected July 19, the X relationship dilemma stated, “…today is the day.” The archetypal 2021 X station has 300,000 likes astatine the clip of writing.

The constrictive conditions abstracted McGregor’s wager from a accepted stake connected Argentina to assistance the trophy. Spain and Argentina could decorativeness regularisation tied, with Argentina winning successful other clip oregon connected penalties, and McGregor’s summons would inactive fail.

McGregor called Argentina “the astir mispriced line” connected the board, but the wager appears to thin arsenic heavy connected the viral prediction arsenic connected accepted lucifer analysis. Exact-score contracts transportation agelong likelihood due to the fact that bettors indispensable correctly place the victor and the last regularisation score.

Prediction Markets Give Spain the Edge

The broader marketplace entered Sunday favoring Spain. Kalshi traders assigned Spain a 58.2% probability of winning the World Cup, compared with 42% for Argentina, crossed a marketplace reporting much than $1.4 cardinal successful trading volume.

Kalshi’s regulation-time contracts placed Spain’s accidental of winning wrong 90 minutes astatine 43%, a gully astatine 32% and Argentina’s accidental astatine 27%. The level besides priced the likelihood of much than 2.5 lucifer goals astatine 42%, indicating traders mostly expected a tighter oregon lower-scoring contention than McGregor’s five-goal prediction.

Polymarket reflected akin expectations soon earlier kickoff. Spain traded adjacent a 59% accidental of advancing arsenic champion, portion Argentina stood adjacent 41%. Its regulation-time moneyline priced Spain astatine astir 42.75%, a gully astatine 31.75% and Argentina astatine 26.75%.

Those figures marque McGregor’s prediction a two-part challenge. Argentina indispensable flooded the marketplace favorite, and the lucifer indispensable nutrient precisely 5 goals successful the required 3-2 sequence.

Drake Piles $1.5 Million Onto Argentina

McGregor is not the lone personage placing a large wager connected Lionel Messi and Argentina. Canadian rapper Drake staked $1.5 million done Stake connected Argentina winning the last successful regularisation oregon other time, with a imaginable payout exceeding $5 million.

Drake’s stake carries broader winning conditions due to the fact that it does not necessitate a peculiar score. Still, his nationalist wagering past has generated the recurring “Drake curse” meme, which links his selections to consequent defeats.

Together, the 2 wagers spot $1.6 cardinal of publically disclosed personage wealth down Argentina. Their societal media posts person besides expanded attraction beyond accepted sports betting audiences, drafting casual observers into prediction markets, exact-score props, and match-outcome contracts.

McGregor Has Cashed Major Soccer Bets Before

McGregor’s willingness to backmost Argentina is accordant with his caller tourney betting record. He wagered €83,500 connected Spain to triumph Euro 2024 astatine astir 11-to-1 odds, collecting a instrumentality exceeding €1 cardinal aft Spain captured the title.

He besides placed a important wager connected Argentina to triumph the 2024 Copa América. Argentina defeated Colombia 1-0 successful the final, giving McGregor different wide publicized shot betting victory.

Not each high-profile enactment has landed. McGregor besides backed Cristiano Ronaldo to triumph the Euro 2024 Golden Boot, a wager that failed erstwhile Ronaldo did not decorativeness arsenic the tournament’s starring scorer. Reports differed importantly connected the size of that stake, illustrating the trouble of verifying each personage betting claim.

McGregor’s $100,000 summons volition beryllium settled wrong hours. A 3-2 Argentina triumph would crook a forgotten 2021 station into a multimillion-dollar prophecy. Every different regulation-time people would permission it arsenic different viral prediction that came close, oregon ne'er came adjacent astatine all.

Meanwhile, dilemma, the X relationship that made the World Cup prediction successful 2021, posted contiguous and said:

“…today is the day.”

While his archetypal prediction has garnered 300,000 likes, his latest “today is the day” station has gathered astir 75,000 likes astatine the clip of writing.