From $255M to $13.7B in 6 Quarters: Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Massive Bet on AI Infrastructure

The pursuing impermanent station comes from BitcoinMiningStock.io, a nationalist markets quality level delivering information connected companies exposed to bitcoin mining, artificial intelligence, and crypto treasury strategies. Originally published connected May 26, 2026, by Cindy Feng.

I was not alert of Situational Awareness LP until recently. Earlier past week, CleanSpark rallied portion bulk of bitcoin-mining peers were trading successful the red. The speculation connected X attributed the determination to Leopold Aschenbrenner expanding his presumption importantly successful the latest 13F. That got maine funny capable to work the filing properly. What I recovered turned retired to beryllium much absorbing than the CleanSpark speculation.

Who Leopold Aschenbrenner is, and what Situational Awareness is

When Leopold Aschenbrenner published Situational Awareness successful mid-2024. The 165-page effort argued that artificial wide quality was overmuch person than the nationalist statement believed, that compute and powerfulness infrastructure would beryllium the binding constraint, and that the buildout to enactment it would beryllium the defining concern communicative of the precocious 2020s.

He launched a hedge money of the aforesaid sanction soon after. Six 13F filings later, Situational Awareness LP is work religiously by a meaningful portion of AI investors. The money gets called the Cathie Wood of AI infrastructure, though the way grounds is short, conscionable six quarters, and it has ne'er been tested successful a existent drawdown.

Should you transcript his trades? That is simply a bully question. Let’s instrumentality a adjacent look.

Six quarters of growth

Situational Awareness LP archetypal appeared connected the 13F radar successful precocious 2024 with a tiny $255M book. It has grown astir each 4th since.

The money crossed $1B successful Q1 2025 and $5B successful Q4 2025. Q1 2026 is the biggest leap yet, much than doubling to $13.7B. But the agelong banal positive telephone information of the publication hardly moved (from $5.5B to $5.2B). The full maturation successful reported 13F notional is simply a marque caller $8.5B put-option publication connected the semiconductor complex. Notably, 5 erstwhile quarters Aschenbrenner had nary meaningful enactment vulnerability astatine each (just a $9M Infosys enactment successful Q4 2025). Q1 2026 is the archetypal time helium is filing a existent options book.

What the Q1 2026 publication really looks like

Here are the largest reported positions, color-coded by type. Blue is agelong communal stock, greenish is telephone options, reddish is enactment options.

The azygous biggest enactment successful the full money is nary longer a banal pick, it is simply a $2.04B enactment connected the VanEck Semi ETF (SMH). Five of the adjacent six lines are besides puts (NVDA, ORCL, AVGO, AMD, MU). The largest bullish presumption is Bloom Energyat $879M of communal stock, with CoreWeave and SanDisk adjacent behind.

A fewer details to flag. NVDA is simply a marque caller position– $1.57B enactment connected 8.99 cardinal shares with nary offsetting long. Oracle, Broadcom, AMD, and ASML are besides caller puts of astir $0.5B to $1B each. Micron and Taiwan Semi transportation three-legged structures (put, call, and a tiny agelong connected the aforesaid name), which looks little directional and much similar long- volatility positioning. Intel went the different way: Q4 held a $747M bullish telephone connected 20 cardinal shares, Q1 holds a $159M enactment and a 202K-share residual long. Same name, other position, successful a quarter’s time.

Reading the enactment overlay

This is the portion of the filing that deserves the astir attention, due to the fact that the earthy speechmaking could beryllium Aschenbrenner turned bearish connected the AI semi complex. Is that the lawsuit though?

There are eleven names wherever the money owns puts. On 9 of them, the enactment vulnerability dwarfs immoderate offsetting agelong presumption by anyplace from ~18x to ~3,150x.

If those puts are standalone bought puts, the bearish work is astir apt right. But the 13F can’t corroborate it. Many details similar whether the puts are bought oregon sold, oregon what strikes and expirations are progressive are missing successful the filing. Any of those changes the work materially. As a result, bearish could beryllium a beardown possibility, but not a confirmed call.

Micron and Taiwan Semi are the outliers. Both transportation astir matched puts and calls alongside a tiny long, which looks much similar long- volatility positioning than a directional view.

Intel, connected the different hand, is the cleanest reversal successful the filing. Q4 held a $747M call connected 20.24M INTC shares; Q1 holds a $159M put positive a 202K-share agelong stub. The operation of the publication astir Intel has intelligibly flipped, adjacent if the directional intent of the caller enactment enactment is open.

Anyway, a reminder earlier we determination on: 13F reports options astatine notional worth of the underlying shares, not premium paid. The existent currency outlay connected the $8.5B enactment publication should beryllium overmuch smaller.

Where the condemnation shows up

The different broadside of the filing, the presumption adds, is wherever the bullish thesis inactive speaks clearly. The bitcoin miners are wherever Aschenbrenner leaned successful hardest, and the ranking of the increases is informative connected its own.

The bigger percent adds beryllium astatine the smaller-cap miners, portion the larger names that already carried the HPC-pivot premium (IREN, Applied Digital) got smaller but inactive got meaningful adds. That signifier is accordant with a catch-up read, wherever the cheaper miners adjacent immoderate of the valuation spread to the names already trading connected AI-data-center expectations. It is not a wholesale rotation, the larger names were not trimmed to money the smaller ones, but it is a wide ballot that the AI-power and HPC-hosting communicative is broader than the 4 oregon 5 names retail tends to absorption on.

Three marque caller agelong positions constituent successful the aforesaid direction: T1 Energy ($44M, a US star and artillery integrator), SharonAI ($18M, Neocloud provider), and HIVE Digital ($6M). Small successful implicit dollars, but each fits a broader AI information halfway and powerfulness theme alternatively than a one-off bet.

What got cut

Eight names near the publication wholly betwixt Q4 and Q1. And determination is nary azygous wide signifier of the companies got cut. As a result, immoderate work connected motive present is speculative.

However, the 8 exits freed up ~$1.1B of capital, which could person been utilized to money immoderate of caller positions.

Final thoughts

My honorable work of this filing is two-part. Aschenbrenner is inactive agelong the AI infrastructure: Bloom Energy, SanDisk, CoreWeave, IREN, Core Scientific connected the existing book, positive meaningfully larger crypto-miner positions (CleanSpark up 7x, Bitfarms up astir 3x, Riot and Bitdeer some adjacent to doubled), and 3 marque caller agelong lines successful T1 Energy, SharonAI, and HIVE Digital. The bullish thesis connected power, information centers, and HPC-pivot miners is live and arguably stronger than it was successful Q4.

At the aforesaid time, the money has built a ample put-option publication with the SMH ETF, Nvidia, Oracle and Broadcom arsenic the largest expressions. The puts dwarf immoderate offsetting longs connected those names. This tin beryllium easy work arsenic Aschenbrenner is bearish connected the AI semi complex. However, the 13F does not really corroborate directional intent. The filing does not disclose abbreviated puts, oregon what strikes and expirations are involved. A assured bearish work requires much accusation than the 13F unsocial provides.

For an mundane investor, the practical takeaway is two-sided. The bullish presumption adds (the smaller-cap miner moves, the caller agelong lines, the maintained halfway longs) transportation wide and mirror-able signal. The enactment publication carries a awesome too, but a softer one: Aschenbrenner has present built a ample capable options presumption connected the spot broadside of the commercialized that it materially shapes the hazard illustration of his book. Treat it arsenic a emblem worthy watching alternatively than a confirmed view, and surely not a short-NVDA recommendation.

With that each said, it’s worthy mentioning that the existent 13F is dated March 31, truthful positions whitethorn person moved since. The adjacent 13F (due mid-August) volition archer america whether the enactment publication grows, shrinks, oregon rotates. That filing volition archer america much clues connected Leopold Aschenbrenner’s updated thesis.