1 week ago
iGamingPublished:Jun 4, 2026, 1:30 AM
Former U.S. congressman George Santos publically promised helium would be President Trump’s State of the Union code successful February, past softly stake connected Kalshi that helium would not, according to radical acquainted with his trades. The prediction market froze his relationship and referred the lawsuit to 2 national regulators, some of whom person opened insider-trading investigations into a person already convicted of fraud.
Published: Jun 4, 2026, 1:30 AM
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi enactment Santos’s State of the Union attendance adjacent 75% earlier his no-show sent the likelihood tumbling.
- The DOJ and CFTC opened investigations aft Santos allegedly profited successful the tens of thousands.
- His lawsuit follows Polymarket probes implicit a $1.2M Google commercialized and a $400K stake connected Maduro’s capture.
A Convicted Fraudster Lands astatine the Center of a Widening Insider-Trading Probe
The occurrence began 4 months aft Santos walked retired of national situation connected a condemnation commuted by Trump, cutting abbreviated an 87-month word for ligament fraud and aggravated individuality theft tied to his 2022 campaign. Per NPR’s reporting, successful a video posted to X the time earlier the speech, helium told followers helium would beryllium watching from the gallery. On Kalshi, wherever traders had staked millions connected who would attend, his confirmation pushed the likelihood of his quality toward 75 percent.
He ne'er showed. “Watching SOTU from an airdrome TV was not portion of the plan,” Santos posted arsenic Trump spoke, and the marketplace cratered. What helium omitted, per NPR, was that helium had already stake against his ain attendance, pocketing a nett successful the tens of thousands astatine the disbursal of the bettors connected the different side.
Kalshi detected the activity, froze the account, and referred it to the CFTC and the Justice Department, 2 radical acquainted with the substance said. Neither bureau responded to requests for comment, and the prediction market besides declined to sermon the case. Reached by reporters, Santos called the probe “news to me” and would not corroborate an account: “I’m not saying yes, I’m not saying no.”
Santos joins a widening roster of traders accused of converting backstage cognition into prediction-market profit. Last week, prosecutors charged a Google technologist who made much than $1.2 cardinal connected Polymarket trades tied to confidential hunt data. In April, a U.S. worker was charged with making much than $400,000 betting connected the capture of Venezuelan person Nicolás Maduro. Lawmakers and the CFTC person repeatedly warned that the markets’ breakneck maturation has outrun their safeguards.
What sets the Santos lawsuit isolated is the root of the edge: the bettor himself. Kalshi disclosed successful February that it had opened much than 200 insider-trading investigations implicit the anterior year, a twelve of which became progressive cases. The erstwhile congressman remains a fixture of the marketplace helium is accused of gaming; past month, traders wagered astir $90,000 connected which words helium would utter successful a azygous Newsmax interview.
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