Gold's Historic Run Dwarfs BTC But Analyst Remains Positive: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

As golden pushed done the $4,000 per ounce people for the archetypal time, bitcoin (BTC) mislaid 1.25% of its worth and the wider crypto market, arsenic measured by the coinDesk 20 (CD20) index, dropped 3%.

The driblet came amid profit-taking aft the crypto marketplace roseate much than 7.7% successful little than a week and arsenic whales’ insubstantial gains swelled. The divergence besides comes arsenic the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rises to its highest level successful 2 months.

Gold, agelong viewed arsenic a harmless haven, has rallied implicit 50% this year. Inflows into gold-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs) person accelerated, with holdings present astatine their highest levels since precocious 2022, according to ING.

Investors are seeking screen from rising governmental risk, including a caller enactment situation successful France and increasing tensions successful Japan’s fiscal argumentation direction. Meanwhile, the U.S. authorities shutdown, present successful its 2nd week, has delayed cardinal economical information and added to concerns astir its fiscal outlook.

Bitcoin, portion often considered arsenic a hedge against uncertainty, has been deed by the rising U.S. dollar and short-term whales moving their BTC to exchanges, which suggests they’ve moved to fastener successful profit.

Adding to bitcoin’s headwinds is the crisp emergence successful Japanese authorities enslaved yields, which jumped to a 17-year precocious this week. The 10-year output touched 1.70%, pricing successful the fiscal risks of incoming Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Abenomics-inspired spending agenda.

Per Goldman Sachs, unit from Japanese bold yields could spill implicit into planetary bonds. Higher enslaved yields thin to tighten fiscal conditions globally and trim capitalist appetite for riskier assets similar BTC.

Still, organization involvement successful Bitcoin remains. U.S.-listed spot ETFs added implicit $3 cardinal successful inflows past week, pushing full nett inflows past $60 billion. This week, an further $2 cardinal person been brought in, per SoSoValue.

Other developments see S&P Global unveiled the Digital Markets 50 Index benchmark which tracks 15 cryptocurrencies and 35 crypto-linked equities, portion the Intercontinental Exchange invested a $2 cardinal investment successful crypto-native predictions marketplace Polymarket.

“In the adjacent term, Bitcoin’s cardinal outlook remains positive, supported by monetary easing expectations, accordant ETF inflows, and persistent safe-haven demand,” Linh Tran, marketplace expert astatine XS.com, said successful an emailed statement. “Should the Fed present clearer signals astir the commencement of a rate-cut rhythm successful upcoming meetings, Bitcoin is apt to proceed benefiting, with country to widen higher into caller terms territories successful the 4th quarter.”

The adjacent trial could travel from the Federal Reserve. Traders are pricing successful complaint cuts, and if the Fed confirms a displacement toward easing, some golden and bitcoin could spot renewed momentum.

Stay alert!

What to Watch

For a much broad database of events this week, spot CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • Oct. 8, 1 p.m.: Hedera (HBAR) mainnet upgrade to mentation 0.66.
• Macro
  • Oct. 8, 9:30 a.m.: Fed Governor Michael S. Barr code astatine the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference successful St. Louis. Watch live.
  • Oct. 8, 2 p.m.: Minutes from the Fed’s Sept. 16-17 FOMC meeting.
• Earnings (Estimates based connected FactSet data)
  • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

For a much broad database of events this week, spot CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • ZKSync DAO is voting connected a proposal to allocate 25 cardinal ZK tokens (~$1.25M) for the "Prividium Roadshow" done the extremity of 2026. Voting ends Oct. 8.
  • GMX is holding elections for Season 3 of its Listing Committee, which volition prime 3 members to oversee and o.k. caller plus listings connected GMX protocols.Voting ends Oct. 8.
  • Jito DAO is voting connected a connection to grow the validator set from 200 to 400 and update StakeNet’s ranking and eligibility criteria to code antagonistic involvement excavation dynamics Voting ends Oct. 8.
• Unlocks
  • No large token unlocks.
• Token Launches
  • Oct. 8: Sky (SKY) to beryllium listed connected BitFlyer.

Conferences

For a much broad database of events this week, spot CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Day 2 of 2: FinTech LIVE London 2025
• Day 1 of 2: Digital Assets Week London 2025
• Day 1 of 2: Fintech Forward 2025 (Bahrain)

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• BNB Chain enactment is continuing to predominate the altcoin assemblage this week; spurring a 10% regular summation for pancakeswap (CAKE) and a 3% emergence for BNB contempt the wider marketplace cooling off.
• Spot trading measurement connected PancakeSwap deed $19 cardinal implicit the past 24 hours arsenic traders effort to capitalize connected the latest question of hype; Chinese-language memecoins that, successful immoderate cases, person already exploded to valuations upwards of $350 million.
• The momentum displacement to BNB Chain distant from the likes of Solana began pursuing the emergence of Aster, a decentralized perpetual speech that has regularly topped $100 cardinal successful regular measurement contempt claims implicit trading travel disparities.
• Total worth locked (TVL) connected BNB Chain has accrued from $6.5 cardinal to $9 cardinal since June, though it remains good beneath its grounds precocious of $26.3 cardinal acceptable successful 2021, suggesting the ecosystem has much country to grow.
• Much of the network's maturation volition besides beryllium connected the absorption of the wider crypto market; BTC and ETH some gave backmost gains connected Wednesday arsenic the marketplace begins to consolidate pursuing different failed breakout.
• A determination to the downside would apt measurement connected BNB Chain arsenic crypto traders often minimize hazard by rotating to stablecoins, reducing the request for speculative memeco

Derivatives Positioning

• Most large tokens person experienced a driblet successful futures unfastened involvement (OI) implicit the past 24 hours, with AVAX being a notable exception, posting a 2% emergence successful OI.
• This wide diminution suggests that caller terms actions are mostly owed to profit-taking alternatively than an summation successful bearish positions.
• Perpetual backing rates stay dependable astatine oregon beneath an annualized 10%, reflecting a mild bullish sentiment successful the market.
• On the CME, ether futures unfastened involvement has decreased to 2.16 cardinal ETH from Monday’s highest of 2.34 million. Despite this retreat, wide positioning remains comparatively high, particularly erstwhile compared to bitcoin’s unfastened interest, which is inactive good beneath its December 2024 high.
• Both BTC and ETH futures premiums connected the CME proceed to commercialized nether 10%.
• On Deribit, the bitcoin options marketplace shows a somewhat antagonistic skew crossed each tenors, indicating puts are somewhat much costly comparative to calls. Block trades predominantly diagnostic bull telephone spreads successful bitcoin and outright purchases of out-of-the-money ether calls.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.45% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday astatine $122,564.51 (24hrs: -1.36%)
• ETH is down 0.62% astatine $4,484.06 (24hrs: -4.42%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.22% astatine 4,228.30 (24hrs: -3.15%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps astatine 2.89%
• BTC backing complaint is astatine 0.0091% (9.9645% annualized) connected KuCoin

• DXY is up 0.38% astatine 98.95
• Gold futures are up 1.43% astatine $4,061.80
• Silver futures are up 2.51% astatine $48.71
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.45% astatine 47,734.99
• Hang Seng closed down 0.48% astatine 26,829.46
• FTSE is up 0.54% astatine 9,535.15
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.39% astatine 5,635.69
• DJIA closed connected Tuesday down 0.2cesr% astatine 46,602.98
• S&P 500 closed down 0.38% astatine 6,714.59
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.67% astatine 22,788.36
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.59% astatine 30,351.72
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.3% astatine 2,839.90
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury complaint is down 1.6 bps astatine 4.111%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.15% astatine 6,771.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.21% astatine 25,091.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.16% astatine 46,925.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.11% (0.19%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03658 (-0.22%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,011 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $51.52
• Total Fees: 4.04 BTC / $498,734
• CME Futures Open Interest: 145,005 BTC
• BTC priced successful gold: 30.5 oz
• BTC vs golden marketplace cap: 8.62%

Technical Analysis

• The supra illustration shows the monthly show of CAKE, the autochthonal inferior and governance token for PancakeSwap, successful candlestick format.
• While CAKE has surged implicit 70% this month, prices stay locked successful a three-year-long consolidation channel.
• Prolonged periods of scope play often resoluteness with a convulsive determination successful either direction. Watch retired for a bullish breakout, arsenic that could pb to a crisp rally.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed connected Tuesday astatine $375.78 (-2.67%), +0.62% astatine $378.10 successful pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed astatine $148.72 (+0.14%), +1.14% astatine $150.41
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed astatine $39.58 (+1.91%), +3.61% astatine $41.01
• Bullish (BLSH): closed astatine $65.1 (-5.36%), +1.01% astatine $65.76
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed astatine $20.25 (-1.56%), +0.69% astatine $20.39
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed astatine $21.47 (-0.42%), +1.30% astatine $21.75
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed astatine $17.1 (-4.52%), +0.88% astatine $17.25
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed astatine $17.96 (+3.04%), +3.17% astatine $18.53
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed astatine $53.38 (+2.08%), +1.12% astatine $53.98
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed astatine $29.71 (-6.28%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed astatine $328.4 (-8.7%), +1.98% astatine $334.89
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed astatine $28.36 (-7.77%), +1.09% astatine $28.67
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed astatine $17.77 (-7.64%), +0.62% astatine $17.88
• Upexi (UPXI): closed astatine $7.05 (-8.44%), +0.85% astatine $7.11
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed astatine $2.45 (-5.77%), +2.45% astatine $

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily nett flow: $875.6 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $62.09 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.35 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily nett flow: $420.9 million
• Cumulative nett flows: $15.03 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 6.79 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• Gold Skyrockets Past $4K, Bitcoin Looks South arsenic Dollar Index Hits 2-Month (CoinDesk): Gold is rallying contempt dollar spot due to the fact that structural and behavioral demand — from ETFs, cardinal banks, and safe-haven buyers — is overwhelming the accustomed currency headwind.
• Bitcoin Under Pressure arsenic Japanese Bond Yield Hits 17-Year High, Yen Depreciates (CoinDesk): Rising Japanese enslaved yields could propulsion planetary involvement rates higher, making investors much risk-averse — which tends to bounds gains successful assets similar bitcoin.
• Dollar Closes successful connected Two-Month High arsenic Global Fiscal Woes Mount (Bloomberg): Japan's fiscal issues, France's governmental instability and the astonishment complaint chopped successful New Zealand person weakened large currencies, pushing traders to favour the dollar arsenic a comparative haven.
• Investors Set to Reignite Yield Curve Steepening if Fiscal Worries Worsen (Reuters): Amundi and PIMCO accidental fiscal strains successful large economies are apt to revive steep output curves, arsenic governments’ dense spending keeps unit connected semipermanent borrowing costs.