If History Repeats, Bitcoin Price Could Crash 33% Again: Here’s Why

2 months ago

The Bitcoin terms is already down much than -22% since the mid-March precocious implicit $73,000. While BTC is presently stabilizing supra $57,000 pursuing the caller terms crash, determination could beryllium adjacent much downside up if past repeats, according to Jacob Canfield, a trading mentor astatine the Trading Mastery. Canfield’s latest analysis points to a imaginable further diminution successful the Bitcoin price, perchance reaching lows not seen since the opening of the year.

Why Bitcoin Price Could Crash Another 33%

Canfield’s investigation connected TradingView hinges connected humanities patterns observed successful Bitcoin’s pricing trends. “Historically, Bitcoin loves to retest the yearly unfastened levels,” Canfield notes. According to him, these retests tin either corroborate bearish oregon bullish trends but are a accordant diagnostic successful Bitcoin’s marketplace behavior. Since 2017, each year’s opening terms has been retested wrong the year, with the notable exceptions of 2023 and 2024 (thus far).

“Since 2017, the yearly unfastened has been retested each twelvemonth but 2023 and 2024,” Canfield remarked. For instance, the bearish retest of the 2018 opening BTC terms occurred close earlier the COVID-19 pandemic crash, and akin patterns were observed successful consequent years. “Even the 2019 yearly unfastened astatine $3,850 was retested during the 2020 Covid Crash,” the crypto expert added.

Moreover, the 2020 yearly unfastened was retested wrong the archetypal 3 months of 2020. The 2021 opening terms was besides retested and marked the lowest constituent earlier a important rally that led to a highest of $69,000, conscionable earlier the collapse of FTX. “The 2022 Yearly unfastened was a bearish retest akin to 2018 earlier the lows astir $16,500. Similar to the 2021 yearly unfastened retest giving america our bottom, this gave america our section top,” Canfield observed.

Looking ahead, the crypto expert speculates astir the imaginable bottommost for Bitcoin successful the coming months. “Here is wherever it gets interesting. The 2023 and 2024 yearly opens person not been retested yet. The question is, bash we signifier a bottommost astatine the 2024 yearly unfastened earlier much each clip highs oregon bash we capitulate each the mode down to the 2023 yearly unfastened astatine $16,500 similar we did successful 2019.”

Crucial Indicators To Watch

The reply whitethorn prevarication successful respective method indicators that Canfield considers pivotal. First, Canfield mentions the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This indicator aligns intimately with the projected yearly unfastened for 2024, suggesting a higher likelihood of uncovering enactment successful the $38,000 to $42,000 range. Notably, a terms clang this debased would mean different -33% for BTC holders.

The 2nd important indicator is the play 200 EMA/MA Ribbon. This indicator is besides converging astir the 2024 opening price. It reinforces the imaginable for this level to enactment arsenic a beardown enactment zone. “This gives america a higher probability that we volition signifier a bottommost astir that portion and the 2023 yearly unfastened whitethorn enactment similar the 2017 yearly unfastened and ne'er get retested,” Canfield speculates.

Despite the bearish outlook, Canfield’s investigation leaves country for assorted scenarios, emphasizing the cyclical quality of Bitcoin’s marketplace dynamics and the relation of humanities precedents successful forecasting aboriginal trends. “Either way, I deliberation this gives america a precocious likelihood people based connected humanities precedence for wherever we whitethorn find a section bottom,” helium concludes, inviting further treatment and investigation from the community.

At property time, BTC traded astatine $57,479.