Iran Denies Sunday Signing as Trump Declares Strait of Hormuz ‘Open to All’ Tomorrow

What Trump Said

Trump posted Saturday connected Truth Social that his statement with Iran represents the other of the Obama-era JCPOA, which helium called a pathway to an Iranian atomic bomb. He framed the caller woody successful stark terms: “My Agreement with Iran is the nonstop opposite, A WALL TO NO NUCLEAR WEAPON! In fact, they nary longer privation a Nuclear Weapon, nor volition they person one, either done purchase, development, oregon immoderate different signifier of procurement.”

He stated the woody would transportation nary currency component, a nonstop opposition to the Obama administration’s $1.7 cardinal currency transfer. Trump added that U.S. forces would aboriginal retrieve and destruct atomic worldly buried beneath Iranian mountains, citing B-2 bomber strikes arsenic the method that rendered it accessible.

He besides near the doorway unfastened to subject enactment if diplomacy fails: “If it doesn’t, we person the eventual alternative, hopefully ne'er to beryllium utilized again.”

Iran’s Response

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Saturday that nary signing of the Islamabad Memorandum would instrumentality spot connected Sunday, according to several reports. He added a woody successful the coming days could not beryllium ruled out, but cited what helium described arsenic hesitation and instability from the American side. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi has separately stated the statement has “never been closer” portion urging the media to hold for an authoritative announcement earlier speculating.

Iranian authorities media advised readers to dainty Trump’s claims skeptically until Tehran issues a ceremonial statement.

Leaked Terms and Trump’s Dismissal

Trump connected June 12 dismissed leaked Iranian versions of the deal’s presumption arsenic fabrications, writing: “The presumption that Iran leaked retired to the Fake News person NOTHING to bash with the presumption that were agreed to, successful writing. What they said, including their anemic and pathetic connection connected having a deal, bears nary narration to the truth. Very dishonorable radical to woody with. With them, determination is nary specified happening arsenic dealing successful bully faith.”

He besides called a reported Iranian drone onslaught connected Indian vessels adjacent the Strait “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE” and told Iran to “get their enactment together, and FAST!”

Background: Six Months of Crisis

The standoff stems from Operation Epic Fury connected Feb. 28, 2026, erstwhile U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iranian atomic and subject sites. Iran retaliated with rocket and drone attacks and imposed an IRGC blockade connected the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for astir 20% of planetary seaborne lipid and LNG trade, oregon astir 10 cardinal barrels per day.

Brent crude peaked supra $126 per tube during the worst of the disruptions. Partial ceasefire attempts successful April produced constricted results. The U.S. imposed a naval blockade connected Iranian ports from mid-April. Renewed U.S. airstrikes astir June 10 ratcheted hostility backmost up earlier Trump cited advancement and paused follow-on operations June 11.

Pakistan, done Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, has brokered the Islamabad talks. Sharif said the 2 sides reached a “final, agreed-upon text” and predicted an imminent signing.

What Prediction Markets Show

Polymarket‘s marketplace tracking whether the U.S. officially announces a caller Iran statement oregon ceasefire hold has generated $47.1 cardinal successful full trading volume since its May 23 launch. The assemblage presently assigns a June 14 solution conscionable a 39% probability. June 15 sits astatine 50%. The astir favored result is July 31, carrying an 89% probability.

Polymarket agreement/ceasefire likelihood connected Saturday, June 13, 2026, astatine 3 p.m. Eastern time.

A abstracted Polymarket market connected whether Trump officially declares the April ceasefire implicit shows June 15 astatine conscionable 1% and June 30 astatine 10%, signaling traders spot continued de-escalation arsenic the much apt near-term path, adjacent with the existent discord.

What It Means for Markets

A confirmed Hormuz reopening would easiness unit connected planetary lipid prices, trim shipping security costs, and assistance proviso concatenation strain crossed substance and fertilizer markets. Equity and crypto markets person antecedently responded positively to signals of diplomatic advancement successful the region. Bitcoin has been trading supra the $64,000 portion pursuing Trump’s statements. The spread betwixt Trump’s Sunday assertion and Iran’s denial keeps uncertainty elevated heading into the weekend.

As of precocious Saturday day (3 p.m. EDT June 13), nary signing had taken place, and the timeline remained contested.