Is Bitcoin price going to crash again?

1 year ago

Bitcoin (BTC) is inactive successful a bullish reversal erstwhile looking astatine this year's terms chart. BTC terms has gained 70% aft bottoming retired astatine astir $16,800 successful November 2022, defying rate hike fears portion riding on growing ETF approval optimism.

However, successful caller months, Bitcoin bulls person failed to prolong BTC terms supra $30,000. Therefore, with the "bullish" halving is inactive implicit 200 days away, galore traders are wondering: is Bitcoin terms going to currency again successful the coming months?

Let's instrumentality a person look astatine the imaginable scenarios arsenic Q3 draws to a close.

Fibonacci fractal hints astatine Bitcoin clang to $21,500

From a method standpoint, Bitcoin terms has stabilized astir the 0.236 Fib enactment of its Fibonacci retracement graph drawn from the $69,000-swing precocious (the marketplace top) to the $15,900-swing debased (the section marketplace bottom).

This flat BTC terms action looks precise akin to the 1 witnessed during the 2018 BTC terms correction.

In 2018, the BTC/USD brace stabilized astir its 0.236 Fib enactment astatine astir $6,790 for months earlier dropping toward $3,000 successful December. The $3,000-level coincided with what is present a multi-year ascending trendline enactment (marked arsenic carnivore marketplace enactment successful the illustration above).

Bitcoin is present halfway repeating 2018 already with terms flatlining astatine the 0.236 Fib line. A breakdown from this level meaning BTC terms volition spot $21,500 arsenic the adjacent large enactment level, down 17.75% from existent levels.

Strong dollar adds to Bitcoin's downside risks

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar spot scale (DXY), which measures the greenback's spot against a excavation of apical overseas currencies, has reached its highest level since November 2022.

The scale has been negatively correlated with Bitcoin passim 2023, arsenic shown below.

The dollar's beforehand has accelerated aft the Federal Reserve's complaint decision past week, and the DXY is presently coating its 11th consecutive greenish play candle.

In different words, Bitcoin's upside prospects could beryllium constricted if the dollar continues to ascent pursuing the DXY golden cross.

"Old" Bitcoins being sold?

Bitcoin's on-chain metrics are coating a mixed outlook.

Bitcoin's Coin Day Destroyed (CDD) metric, measuring semipermanent investors' actions, spiked connected Sep. 19, indicating that immoderate semipermanent BTC holders moved their coins, suggesting imaginable profit-taking oregon repositioning.

Traders should instrumentality caution present arsenic astir CDD spikes person historically preceded terms declines.

On the different hand, Bitcoin reserves crossed each crypto exchanges proceed declining, which hints at increasing hodling behavior among investors.

What Bitcoin trading analysts are saying

Bitcoin analysts are besides divided implicit wherever BTC terms whitethorn beryllium headed successful the months ahead.

For instance, fashionable trader Skew argues that the BTC terms tin deed $30,000 by October, citing a bladed Ask liquidity adjacent $27,000, perchance starring to a breakout.

Fellow expert Rekt Capital, however, doesn't regularisation out a terms correction toward $18,000 based connected a pre-halving fractal shown below.

"History suggests that the adjacent 140 days volition beryllium important for dollar-cost-averaging successful mentation for the Post-Halving parabolic rally," said Rekt Capital, adding:

"If Bitcoin is going to retrace from [the existent terms levels], it volition astir apt beryllium during this existent 140 time period."

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.

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