Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Breaking Down? Analysts Question Old Market Rules

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For years, crypto investors have relied on one idea more than almost any other: the Bitcoin four-year cycle. Buy after the crash, wait for the halving, sell into the bull market, repeat. Simple. Predictable. Almost like a cheat code.

Popular crypto analyst Lark Davis recently revisited this idea and raised an uncomfortable question: What if the four-year cycle was never as real as we thought?

Why the Four-Year Cycle Made Sense for So Long

The four-year cycle theory comes from one real event: the Bitcoin halving.

Every four years, Bitcoin’s new supply gets cut in half. Early on, this mattered a lot. Bitcoin started at zero supply, so reducing new coins had a huge effect. Less supply, growing demand, higher prices, the logic was easy to understand.

And for a long time, it seemed to work perfectly. Big rallies followed halvings. Big crashes followed peaks.

The Problem No One Likes to Talk About

Here’s the uncomfortable part.

More than 95% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist has already been mined. What’s left will be released slowly over more than a century. Today, Bitcoin’s supply grows by only about 1% per year, which is actually less than gold.

At this point, cutting that already tiny supply in half doesn’t change much.

So the big question becomes: If the halving barely changes supply anymore, why should it still move price the same way?

What Really Drove Bitcoin’s Big Moves

When you zoom out, Bitcoin’s major highs and lows line up surprisingly well with global liquidity and business cycles, not just halvings.

• 2017: Economic expansion and easy money
  
• 2020–2021: Massive money printing and stimulus
  
• 2024: Spot Bitcoin ETFs brought in huge new capital
  

In fact, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high before the 2024 halving — something that had never happened before. That alone suggests the old rules are changing.

Bitcoin also shows a strong connection to global money supply and economic activity. When liquidity rises, Bitcoin tends to do well. When it tightens, Bitcoin struggles.

Another strange detail: the most recent Bitcoin all-time high came with almost no excitement. That doesn’t mean the cycle disappeared completely, it means it may be weaker, diluted, and less reliable than before.

Where That Leaves Bitcoin Now

Right now, Bitcoin looks technically weak, and sentiment is low. Attention has shifted to AI, robotics, and tech stocks. At the same time, the macro picture is shifting. Interest rates are coming down. Liquidity is slowly returning. The environment that once pushed Bitcoin higher may be setting up again.

That doesn’t guarantee a rally tomorrow. But it shows the story isn’t over.