2 years ago
Jamie Dimon’s leaked comments with predictions for the planetary system and geopolitics overgarment a bleak representation astir the authorities of the system astatine large.
Watch This Episode On YouTube Or Rumble
Listen To The Episode Here:
“Fed Watch” is simply a macro podcast, existent to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each occurrence we question mainstream and Bitcoin narratives by examining existent events successful macro from crossed the globe, with an accent connected cardinal banks and currencies.
In this episode, Christian Keroles and I dive into the astonishment complaint cuts by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and work done immoderate of Jamie Dimon’s precocious leaked comments astir the planetary system and geopolitics.
China's Surprise Rate Cut
After a little look astatine the bitcoin chart, we statesman discussing the July 2022 economical numbers from China. I work disconnected a Bloomberg nonfiction with the headline, “China Shocks With Rate Cut arsenic Data Show ‘Alarming’ Slowdown.”
Up and down the information release, the Chinese system performed worse than past period and acold beneath estimates. After decades of concern accumulation rising successful China astatine precocious azygous oregon adjacent treble digits, it is underperforming bearish estimates astatine lone 3.8% year-over-year.
Other important metrics for the Chinese system is retail income growth, arsenic they effort to interruption retired of the middle-income trap, and go a consumption-led economy. Growth was horrible astatine lone 2.7%, with a projection of 4.9%.
The spot and existent property assemblage posted a 6.4% decline, which is apt a rosy reading. In caller episodes, we’ve shown however the Chinese existent property market, similar caller location sales, has crashed by 30% month-other-month successful caller months. This is perfectly devastating for a assemblage built astir presales and which is trapped successful a slow-motion recognition default.
(Source)
The past update for China this week is that the PBOC besides chopped their 2 short-term argumentation rates, each by 10 ground points. It’s not much, but it puts them successful nonstop absorption to different cardinal banks, who are pursuing a way of tightening.
As you tin spot successful the illustration below, the PBOC has been consistently cutting rates since agelong earlier COVID. This caller weakness mightiness beryllium blamed connected their zero-COVID policy, but the information shows that China is experiencing lone a instrumentality to inclination — a inclination that is heading toward a fiscal crisis.
(Source)
In the illustration below, we tin spot the maturation complaint successful the past 25 years of Chinese gross home product. Growth fundamentally changed successful China during the Global Financial Crisis and has been trending down ever since. COVID was a monolithic shock, but present things are settling backmost connected inclination toward a crisis.
(Source)
Jamie Dimon’s Leaked Comments On The Economy
I cognize Jamie Dimon is not the astir fashionable antheral successful the Bitcoin community, but helium is simply a heavyweight successful the satellite of banking and finance. That is why, erstwhile immoderate of his comments to high-net-worth clients leaked this week, we should astatine slightest analyse what helium said. I’ll besides note, Jamie Dimon is the CEO of JPMorgan Chase and the Wall Street banks influences the Federal Reserve. It is apt that this is akin to what we’d perceive from a candid speech with Jerome Powell.
About the coming recession, Dimon gauged the outcomes to beryllium 10% brushed landing, 20-30% mild recession, 20-30% harder recession and 20-30% thing worse. That means helium thinks determination is simply a astir 50% accidental of a hard recession oregon thing worse. That is important but mixed, portraying a precocious level of uncertainty astatine the precise apical of banking and finance.
He was besides uncertain astir the way of the user terms scale and Fed policy. Important present due to the fact that Powell is apt besides uncertain.
Dimon was overmuch much definite connected different things, China for example. He said, “China has superior issues,” and “Autocratic absorption tin enactment successful definite things, but doesn't enactment successful the agelong run.” Following that up with, “I deliberation it is simply a mistake to accidental that America has the abbreviated extremity of the stick.”
We mightiness presumption Jamie Dimon arsenic the stereotypical Davos Man, affable to the World Economic Forum and their agenda, but successful these comments helium blasts environmental, societal and governance (ESG) and recommends pumping much lipid successful the U.S. He implied that more, alternatively than less, lipid from the U.S. is amended for the environment.
Lastly, Dimon adjacent made immoderate comments connected “woke capitalism” the hallmark of the ESG movement. It was a small unclear what his nonstop thoughts were, but helium surely prefers abandoning policies that are tearing america isolated and hurting the economy. Instead, helium wants to absorption connected coming unneurotic and supporting each other.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you bask this contented delight like, subscribe, reappraisal and share!
Don’t hide to cheque retired the “Fed Watch Clips” channel connected YouTube.
This is simply a impermanent station by Ansel Lindner. Opinions expressed are wholly their ain and bash not needfully bespeak those of BTC Inc. oregon Bitcoin Magazine.
English (US) 