K33 Research Says Bitcoin’s $60K Bottom Was Bear Market’s Maximum Drawdown

Bitcoin’s Downside Capped astatine $60K

In a probe enactment published this week, K33’s caput of research, Vetle Lunde, argued that the conditions defining the 2026 bear market marque an 80%-plus illness (akin to those seen successful 2018 and 2022) structurally unlikely. She added that the 2025 bull market was little assertive than anterior cycles, and a proportionally little terrible bear market volition travel arsenic a consequence.

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The firm’s cardinal grounds sits successful derivatives information arsenic bitcoin’s 30-day mean backing complaint has remained antagonistic for 81 consecutive days, an unusually prolonged agelong of bearish positioning successful perpetual swap markets. Lunde describes this arsenic a “uniquely pessimistic” sentiment, which paradoxically stands to bounds further downside by exhausting near-term selling unit earlier a sustained diminution tin develop.

K33’s basal lawsuit projects bitcoin consolidating wrong a scope of $60,000 to $75,000, with dilatory grind dynamics alternatively than a crisp capitulation event. The “maximum drawdown” successful this script sits astatine the February debased of astir $60,000, a astir 52% diminution from the all-time precocious of $126,272 reached connected October 6, 2025.

The numbers whitethorn beryllium terrible by humanities standards for equities, but rather humble for a bitcoin bear market cycle, arsenic erstwhile cycles person produced peak-to-trough losses exceeding 80%.

The cardinal structural quality K33 points to is the relation of organization capital. With entree to bitcoin present mostly routed done regulated products, the utmost leverage feedback loops that drove anterior capitulations are harder to prolong astatine scale. Long-term holders besides look to beryllium approaching selling exhaustion, a metric that successful erstwhile cycles has preceded a medium-term terms floor.

Moreover, successful February, K33 flagged parallels to the precocious 2022 bear market bottommost erstwhile bitcoin archetypal approached the $60,000 level. The latest enactment extends that statement forward, suggesting that if February was the floor, the marketplace is present successful dilatory betterment territory alternatively than mid-decline.

For traders and semipermanent holders alike, the question present shifts from however debased bitcoin tin spell to however agelong the consolidation lasts.