Kalshi Election Day Volume Hits $4.15B, Short of Its October Record

Kalshi Election Day Volume vs. the Oct. 24 Record

Kalshi recorded $4.15 cardinal successful notional measurement connected Tuesday, Nov. 3, the time of the U.S. midterm elections, according to the exchange’s daily marketplace information for Nov. 3. That was beneath the grounds $5.3 cardinal traded connected Saturday, Oct. 24, and the $4.79 cardinal traded a week aboriginal connected Saturday, Oct. 31.

It was inactive Kalshi’s busiest weekday successful its regular data. Election Day measurement was 50.5% supra the erstwhile Tuesday, Oct. 27, erstwhile Kalshi traded $2.76 billion. Kalshi’s regular reports tally connected U.S. Eastern days.

Why Did Combos Fall to 58.6% of Kalshi’s Election Day Volume?

Combos are Kalshi’s parlay-style contracts, which bundle respective outcomes into one. They had driven astir of Kalshi’s earlier regular records, galore of them agelong shots priced beneath 1 cent. On Election Day, combos accounted for $2.43 billion, oregon 58.6% of volume, down from 75.5% connected Oct. 24 and 73.9% connected Oct. 31. That was the lowest stock of immoderate time since astatine slightest Oct. 10.

Trading extracurricular combos did the lifting. It came to astir $1.72 cardinal connected Election Day, astir a 3rd much than the $1.30 cardinal connected Oct. 24, and much than connected immoderate different time since astatine slightest Oct. 10.

Notional measurement counts each declaration astatine its afloat $1 payout, which the purchaser and seller money betwixt them according to the price. It is not the magnitude traders enactment astatine risk.

Texas Senate Race Led Kalshi’s Election Markets

Texas’ Senate contention was Kalshi’s busiest predetermination bid of the time astatine $108.1 million. House power followed astatine $99.8 million, past the Texas governor’s contention astatine $88.6 million, Senate power astatine $82.8 million, and Kalshi’s combined balance-of-power marketplace astatine $60.8 million. Those 5 bid totaled astir $440 million. Kalshi’s 15-minute bitcoin contracts inactive traded much than immoderate azygous predetermination series, astatine $332.6 million.

Over their lifetimes, Kalshi’s contracts connected Democrats winning the House and the Senate traded astir 49.1 cardinal and 32.4 cardinal contracts, respectively. Polymarket counts measurement connected a akin notional basis, and its House power lawsuit had drawn astir $63.3 million, its Senate power lawsuit astir $31.5 million, and its balance-of-power lawsuit astir $75.3 million.

Kalshi settled Senate power for Democrats astatine 05:46 UTC connected Wednesday, Nov. 4, and House power 16 minutes later. Both Kalshi and Polymarket had favored Democrats to expanse Congress going into the vote.

Polymarket had resolved its Senate and House power markets for Democrats by aboriginal day UTC connected Nov. 4. Its balance-of-power marketplace for the 2026 midterms was inactive awaiting resolution, with a Republican expanse priced astatine little than a cent. That puts a Polymarket relationship that bet astir $183,000 connected Republicans keeping some chambers connected people to suffer it.

The results could besides bring much unit connected prediction markets successful Washington. Front Office Sports reported earlier the ballot that lawmakers successful some parties were already pushing bills connected sports lawsuit contracts, insider trading, and warfare markets, including Sens. Adam Schiff and John Curtis’s Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act.

Experts told the work that a Democratic Congress could telephone Kalshi and Polymarket to hearings, and usage spending bills to bounds what the CFTC tin walk connected litigation oregon caller rules. Any measure restricting the platforms would inactive look a imaginable veto from President Donald Trump.