5 hours ago
Bitcoin (BTC) terms continues to compress nether $70,000 connected Tuesday, and information suggests that the hazard of caller year-to-date lows remains a hazard if bulls neglect to crook the level into support.
The whipsaw quality of Bitcoin’s terms surged arsenic US marketplace volatility climbed backmost supra a captious level, and Treasury yields saw their sharpest play driblet successful months.
Analysts suggest this macro backdrop whitethorn hint astatine an extended slowdown signifier for BTC price, portion onchain information shows traders inactive waiting for a stronger bullish catalyst.
Key takeaways:
The CBOE Volatility Index astatine 22.50 signals a rising marketplace volatility and risk-off positioning for investors.
The US 10-year output is astatine 4.02%, down 3.75% past week, nearing its 200-day moving mean inclination for the archetypal clip since March 2022.
Why Bitcoin whitethorn stay a “risk-off” plus for now
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures the 30-day volatility expectations successful US equities, has climbed to 22.50 successful 2026 and is approaching its highest level since November 21, 2025.
A rising VIX typically reflects the increasing uncertainty and reduced appetite for hazard assets, a “risk-off” setup that has historically pressured Bitcoin.
Bitcoin versus VIX correlation chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewFor context, the illustration shows a repeated inverse signifier betwixt Bitcoin and the VIX astir the 20 level. When the VIX spiked supra 20 successful December 2024, BTC formed a apical astatine $104,000. A stronger surge supra 25 successful March done April 2025 aligned with a crisp BTC correction to $80,000.
Another determination supra 20 successful Q4 aligned with Bitcoin’s rhythm precocious adjacent $126,000, and BTC’s driblet beneath $100,000 besides came arsenic the VIX spiked supra the threshold.
At the aforesaid time, the US 10-year Treasury output fell 3.75% past week, its steepest play diminution since September 2025. Now astatine 4.02%, the output is acceptable to retest its 200-period elemental moving mean (SMA) for the archetypal clip since March 2022.
Falling yields bespeak antiaircraft positioning crossed accepted markets, reinforcing the cautious tone.
US 10 YR Yield. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 7 past week, 1 of its lowest readings connected record. Asset absorption institution Bitwise explained successful its play newsletter that portion utmost fearfulness has aligned with rhythm bottoms, BTC’s onchain proviso successful nett lone concisely touched the 50% during the caller sell-off. This level has marked deeper carnivore marketplace resets successful the past.
Related: Bitcoin accumulation question puts $80K backmost successful play: Analyst
Stablecoin liquidity maturation slows down
CryptoQuant information shows that the stablecoin reserves accrued by $11.4 cardinal successful the 30 days starring up to November 5, 2025, reflecting beardown buying powerfulness entering the market.
However, arsenic the bearish signifier expanded, stablecoin reserves fell $8.4 cardinal by December 23, 2025, signaling that superior was moving out.
Stablecoin reserves connected exchanges. Source: CryptoQuantOver the past month, the reserves crossed assorted exchanges person declined by a humble $2 billion. This marked a slowdown compared to the crisp outflows successful Q4, but a deficiency of important inflows pointed to restrained liquidity conditions.
Binance dominated speech liquidity, holding $47.5 cardinal successful USDT and USDC reserves, astir 65% of full centralized speech balances, including $42.3 cardinal successful USDT, which is up 36%, year-over-year.
Regarding stablecoin inflows and reserves, crypto expert Maartunn said USDC inflows to exchanges are trending little again, indicating that caller liquidity has yet to instrumentality astatine scale.
Related: Crypto sentiment hits utmost fearfulness arsenic Matrixport flags imaginable bottom
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