Metaplanet raises 2026 outlook as Bitcoin write-down tops $670M

Tokyo‑listed Bitcoin treasury institution Metaplanet raised its 2025 gross and operating income forecasts and flagged a ample non‑cash Bitcoin write‑down, portion sharply expanding guidance for 2026.

The institution present expects 2025 gross of 8.905 cardinal Japanese yen (approximately $58 million) and operating income of astir $40 million, according to a Monday notice.

Despite an improved operating outlook, Metaplanet forecasts an mean nonaccomplishment of astir $632 cardinal and a nett nonaccomplishment of astir $491 million. Both figures are driven by a Bitcoin impairment nonaccomplishment of astir $680–700 million, which is simply a non‑cash write‑down of the worth of its Bitcoin (BTC) holdings astatine year‑end prices.

That leaves Metaplanet connected way to station a heavy yearly nonaccomplishment for 2025 contempt stronger underlying operating show erstwhile it files its full‑year results connected Feb. 16, 2026.

Notice Regarding Revision of Full-Year Earnings Forecast. Source: Metaplanet

Metaplanet absorption said that Q4 2025 gross from its Bitcoin Income Generation concern “is expected to importantly transcend archetypal projections,” lifting full‑year gross successful that conception to astir $55 million, up from astir $40 cardinal antecedently announced.

Related: Strategy kickstarts 2026 with $116M Bitcoin bargain arsenic Q4 insubstantial nonaccomplishment hits $17B

Bitcoin impairment and BTC yield

The filing explains that the impairment stems from quarter‑end mark‑to‑market accounting and is simply a “non‑cash accounting accommodation reflecting period-end terms fluctuations and has nary nonstop interaction connected the Company's currency flows oregon operations.” 

At the aforesaid time, Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Treasury concern continued to grow. BTC holdings roseate from 1,762 BTC astatine the extremity of 2024 to 35,102 BTC astatine the extremity of 2025, with BTC output per diluted stock reaching 568% for the year. In different words, the magnitude of Bitcoin backing each diluted stock accrued by 568% implicit 2025, a metric the institution uses to way BTC maturation connected a per stock basis.

Because of the trouble of forecasting Bitcoin prices, the institution does not supply guidance for mean income oregon nett income for 2026.

2026 guidance and spending

For 2026, Metaplanet forecasts gross of astir $103 cardinal and operating income of astir $73 million, with astir each that gross expected from the Bitcoin Income Generation concern alone, and selling, wide and administrative expenses of astir $29 million.

Metaplanet publishes regular information connected its BTC holdings, unrealized gains and losses and related metrics.

Big questions: Would Bitcoin past a 10-year powerfulness outage?