2 weeks ago
Polymarket contracts terms little than a 1% accidental that President Donald Trump volition resign today, arsenic traders presumption into a 2 P.M. ET Oval Office announcement reported by aggregate outlets citing a White House advisory.
The Oval Office announced the planned appearance, though the taxable was not disclosed. According to his schedule, Trump spent Labor Day golfing with nary nationalist appearances, and his time ended astatine 5:39 P.M. ET.
Trump docket (Source: White House)Trading astir Trump’s tenure and wellness has drawn sizable volume. As of aboriginal day connected Sept. 2, a same-day “resign today” marketplace connected Polymarket showed <1% likelihood with astir $1 cardinal traded, based connected unrecorded marketplace boards shared with CryptoSlate.
Broader timeframes terms debased single-digit probabilities: the year-end declaration “Will Trump resign successful 2025?” traded adjacent 6%, portion “Trump removed via 25th Amendment successful 2025?” sat adjacent 7%.
Amid a near-record debased support complaint of 44% and a -7.6% nett approval, a abstracted declaration resolves connected Trump’s polling floor, “How debased volition Trump’s support standing spell successful 2025?,” priced a 40% support oregon little result astatine astir 19%, with solution tied to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin aggregator.
Trump support standing (Source: Nate Silver)Market rules framework wherefore likelihood clump astatine the debased end.
The resignation marketplace pays retired connected an announcement unsocial by Dec. 31, 2025, irrespective of the effectual date, per Polymarket’s regularisation acceptable for the 2025 resignation contract.
Removal via the 25th requires a palmy Section 4 process, meaning a Cabinet determination sustained by two-thirds of some chambers, per the 25th Amendment market. The support marketplace resolves to the greenish inclination enactment published by Silver Bulletin.
Trading flurry follows online speculation astir Trump’s health.
The White House disclosed connected July 17 that the president was diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency aft limb swelling, with investigating ruling retired deep-vein thrombosis and cardiac issues, per an authoritative doc memorandum posted by The White House.
Viral claims that Trump has “six to 8 months to live” person been surfacing online based connected “internet doctors'” appraisal of the bruises connected his hands. However, connected Monday, Trump was reportedly photographed golfing adjacent Washington, D.C., which added a caller information point against “missing from nationalist view” narratives, arsenic People reported from the property pool.
In unusual timing (for those indulging successful conspiracy theory), VP J.D. Vance precocious asserted that helium is acceptable to beryllium President should thing hap to Trump. Some person besides claimed the images of Trump from this play are either a lookalike, fake, old, oregon amusement the president successful precise frail shape.
By 2 P.M. today, overmuch of the societal media play Zeitgeist volition beryllium solved, and millions volition beryllium paid retired to those betting connected the result via crypto’s always-present Polymarket prediction markets.
Rumor-driven markets tin determination fast, past mean-revert erstwhile caller reporting lands. Today’s setup centers connected the Oval Office announcement model and whether it alters the accusation situation that underpins these contracts.
Until that catalyst arrives, Polymarket’s same-day resignation enactment remains priced arsenic a process event, and the year-end resignation and removal contracts commercialized successful the azygous digits.
The station Millions stake President Donald Trump is NOT DEAD arsenic Polymarket resignation likelihood enactment nether 1% appeared archetypal connected CryptoSlate.
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