Monero Approaches $500 Resistance—Is a 50% XMR Price Rally Back on the Table?

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The broader crypto market continues to trade under pressure, but select altcoins are showing relative strength—Monero among them. XMR price has surged over 11% in the past 24 hours. climbing above $490 after rebounding sharply from lows near $425. The rally has been supported by a more than 70% spike in trading volume, signalling strong participation. Amid geopolitical uncertainty and rising demand for privacy-focused assets, Monero is outperforming most altcoins, raising the possibility of a bullish monthly close above $500.

Monero’s upside move has coincided with escalating Middle East tensions and a partial US government shutdown, both of which have revived interest in censorship-resistant assets. The sharp rise in volumes points to fresh inflows, as regulatory concerns—such as discussions around tighter EU scrutiny of privacy coins—appear to be reinforcing Monero’s hedge narrative. Unlike Zcash, Monero enforces privacy by default rather than as an optional feature, reducing compliance ambiguity and making XMR more attractive to traders seeking uncompromised transaction privacy.

Can XMR Price Close Monthly Trade Above $500?

XMR price has reclaimed the $450 to $464 support area and is heading towards the immediate resistance. It has emerged as one of the strongest-performing altcoins, defying broader market weakness. The XMR price has surged by over 10% in the past 24 hours, reclaiming the $490 level after a sharp rebound from sub-$425 lows. This recovery places Monero back inside a rising price channel that has guided the trend since mid-2025. With momentum rebuilding and price holding above key support, traders are closely watching whether XMR can sustain strength toward the $500–$520 resistance zone.

On the daily timeframe, Monero continues to respect a rising parallel channel that has been intact since mid-2025. The recent rebound originated from the channel’s lower boundary near $420–$430, a zone that has repeatedly acted as strong demand. Price is now trading around $490, approaching a major horizontal resistance at $500, which also aligns with a prior rejection zone. A daily close above $500–$520 would confirm bullish continuation, exposing upside targets at $560, followed by $650–$700 near the upper channel resistance. 

On the downside, failure to hold $460 could lead to a retest of $430, with a deeper breakdown only if $400 is lost. Momentum indicators support cautious optimism: the RSI has recovered to ~48, signalling a shift from oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram is contracting, indicating weakening bearish momentum rather than a confirmed reversal.

Conclusion: How High Can XMR Go in 2026?

If Monero maintains its rising channel structure and secures sustained acceptance above the $500–$520 zone, the broader 2026 outlook remains constructive. Under a bullish continuation scenario, XMR could target the $650–$700 region initially, with an extended move toward $800 possible if macro uncertainty and privacy demand persist. Failure to hold above $420 would invalidate this outlook.