Next Bitcoin buy signal could come from bond market stress: Analyst

Key takeaways:

• Bond marketplace accent has historically aligned with Bitcoin rhythm bottoms and could awesome caller bargain opportunities.

• US indebtedness surpassing $37 trillion and elevated 10-year yields constituent to macroeconomic pressures that whitethorn favour Bitcoin successful Q4. 

A buying accidental successful Bitcoin (BTC) whitethorn look earlier a beardown rally successful Q4, and the enslaved markets could play a cardinal role.

According to Alphractal laminitis Joao Wedson, 1 of the astir reliable indicators to ticker is the ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS). This measures the other output investors request to clasp risky firm bonds implicit harmless US Treasurys. When OAS spikes, it signals fearfulness successful recognition markets. Historically, those accent points person often marked section bottoms for Bitcoin.

Currently, OAS remains comparatively calm, suggesting markets haven’t afloat priced successful the adjacent question of stress. But if recognition spreads widen successful the coming quarter, a communal result erstwhile liquidity tightens, it could acceptable the signifier for different Bitcoin accumulation phase.

ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread vs. BTC price. Source: Joao Wedson/X

The broader macro backdrop reinforces this view. The US nationalist indebtedness has surged past $37 trillion, requiring much than $2.6 billion successful regular involvement payments. A caller US recognition downgrade reflects interest implicit this fiscal path. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury output is astatine 4.3%, up from 3.9% a twelvemonth ago, raising borrowing costs crossed the economy.

Wedson believes this operation of fiscal accent and rising yields could yet shingle accepted markets, with Bitcoin benefiting arsenic an alternate asset. “An assertive carnivore marketplace volition hap sooner oregon later,” Wedson said. “But earlier it occurs, euphoria is the astir apt scenario. I judge overmuch of 2026 and onward volition beryllium precise atrocious for the US economy.”

Related: Bitcoin terms rising wedge breakdown: How debased tin BTC go?

Strategy buys $54 cardinal successful Bitcoin, but whales hint astatine deeper dips

Institutional request for Bitcoin remains steady, highlighted by Strategy’s latest acquisition connected Aug. 17. The steadfast acquired 430 BTC for astir $51.4 cardinal astatine an mean terms of $119,666 per coin. This brings its full holdings to 629,376 BTC. 

However, onchain information points to increasing selling unit among Bitcoin’s largest holders. Cointelegraph reported that the fig of mega whale addresses holding implicit 10,000 BTC has dropped to its lowest level successful 2025, with a accordant antagonistic 30-day inclination since mid-July. Similarly, whale wallets successful the 1,000–10,000 BTC scope person declined, suggesting profit-taking aft caller highs.

Adding to marketplace volatility, astir 32,000 dormant BTC (3–5 years old), worthy astir $3.78 billion, was moved successful a azygous transfer, the largest displacement from this property set successful implicit a year.

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.