Now Is The Best Time To Buy Bitcoin, Says Investment Giant

In its latest capitalist memo, titled “The Great Derisking of Bitcoin,” Bitwise Asset Management has taken a bold stance connected the aboriginal of the world’s archetypal cryptocurrency. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan delivered a elaborate investigation successful a dispatch dated March 25, 2025, stating, “Now is the champion clip successful past to acquisition bitcoin (on a risk-adjusted basis).” The memo, which includes reflections connected Bitcoin’s aboriginal days and an appraisal of its biggest milestones, offers penetration into wherefore Bitwise believes the starring integer asset’s hazard illustration has shifted dramatically successful caller years.

Best Time To Buy Bitcoin

In his opening remarks, Hougan recounts his instauration to Bitcoin backmost successful February 2011, erstwhile helium was moving arsenic portion of a fiscal analytics squad astatine ETF.com. During a regular marketplace reappraisal meeting, 1 of Hougan’s young analysts brought up the information that Bitcoin had conscionable crossed $1—a landmark lawsuit that triggered a treatment astir its underlying exertion and imaginable usage cases. “If I had invested $1,000 successful bitcoin aft that meeting, it would beryllium worthy $88 cardinal today,” Hougan laments successful hindsight.

This anecdote, however, is not simply a communicative of missed opportunity. Hougan underscores the risks that were pervasive astatine the time, emphasizing however the thought of transferring $1,000 to a “random PayPal address” done a nascent crypto speech was a nerve-racking and mostly untested proposition. Moreover, custody, regulatory clarity, and authorities oversight were virtually nonexistent, efficaciously turning immoderate cryptocurrency vulnerability into a high-risk, high-reward gamble. “Throw successful custody, regulatory, technological, and governmental risks … and putting $1,000 connected bitcoin successful 2011 was a monolithic gamble,” helium explains.

Central to Hougan’s thesis is that Bitcoin has, implicit the years, methodically flooded astir each existential menace that erstwhile loomed. He notes that aboriginal attempts to make integer cash—such arsenic the National Security Agency’s 1997 insubstantial titled “How To Make A Mint: The Cryptography of Anonymous Electronic Cash”—never afloat took off, making it acold from guaranteed that Bitcoin itself would succeed.

From there, improvements successful trading venues and custodial solutions gradually reduced the barriers to entry. When Coinbase launched successful precocious 2011, it marked a pivotal infinitesimal by offering a much user-friendly and trustworthy on-ramp for retail and organization investors alike. Major custodial providers, including Fidelity, would aboriginal widen their operational and marque spot to crypto, further mitigating concerns implicit information and storage.

Simultaneously, the once-pervasive fears of regulatory clampdowns began to wane. In 2024, the instauration of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) successful the US removed different large roadblock. Hougan observes that broader acceptance successful accepted fiscal markets made it easier for institutions to warrant adding integer assets to their portfolios without worrying astir opaque regulatory regimes oregon insufficient marketplace surveillance.

“When bitcoin archetypal launched, determination was nary warrant it would adjacent work. […] The unthinkable happening astir bitcoin is it has dilatory but surely knocked down each and each 1 of these existential risks implicit time,” writes Hougan, underscoring his presumption that Bitcoin’s evolutionary way has been 1 of measured resilience.

Bitcoin Last Threat Is Removed

One cardinal question, however, continued to shadiness Bitcoin’s rise: What if a large authorities decides to prohibition oregon severely restrict the cryptocurrency? Hougan points to a humanities parallel: the US government’s golden confiscation bid successful 1933, enacted nether President Franklin D. Roosevelt. The measurement aimed to consolidate golden holdings to fortify authorities reserves, fueling a communal fearfulness among Bitcoin investors that a akin prohibition could stifle the cryptocurrency’s maturation oregon outright render it illegal.

“The US famously confiscated backstage golden holdings successful 1933 to boost nationalist coffers. Why would it let bitcoin to turn ample capable to endanger the US dollar?” Hougan acknowledges.

This worst-case scenario, helium adds, was often tempered by reminding radical that if Bitcoin did go important capable to rival the dollar, “you’ll astir apt person done beauteous good connected your investment.” Still, uncertainty remained—until what Hougan views arsenic a decisive lawsuit occurred earlier this month.

President Trump’s enforcement order establishing a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, signed successful aboriginal March, seems to person addressed that lingering concern, Hougan says. By making a nonstop concern successful Bitcoin, the US authorities efficaciously nullified the imaginable of an outright ban, transitioning alternatively to a argumentation of strategical alignment. “And conscionable similar that, the past existential hazard facing bitcoin disappeared earlier my eyes,” Hougan remarks.

Critics person questioned wherefore the US would endorse what could beryllium construed arsenic a rival to the dollar’s presumption arsenic the planetary reserve currency. Quoting Cliff Asness, laminitis of AQR Capital, Hougan points to the contiguous query: “(I)f crypto is simply a viable semipermanent rival to the US dollar, wherefore connected world would we beryllium promoting this nonstop rival to our being the world’s reserve currency?”

In Hougan’s assessment, the US authorities is positioning Bitcoin arsenic a hedge alternatively than relinquishing monetary dominance. If the dollar’s primacy does travel nether threat, Bitcoin presents a much controllable or, astatine least, much transparent alternate than a overseas currency specified arsenic the Chinese yuan. “The best-case script for the US is that the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. But if we get to the constituent wherever that’s astatine risk, we’re amended disconnected moving to bitcoin than thing similar the Chinese yuan,” helium adds.

Shifting Institutional Allocations

On the organization front, Bitwise has already observed a noticeable displacement successful however investors allocate to crypto. As precocious arsenic 2 years ago, holding 1% successful Bitcoin oregon different integer assets was considered comparatively assertive for a diversified portfolio. This allocation was meant to seizure speculative gains portion limiting vulnerability to what inactive felt similar a nascent, unpredictable market.

Today, however, with a caller level of government-endorsed legitimacy and much regulated pathways to invest, the steadfast is seeing much clients follow allocations nearing 3%. Hougan notes that this inclination reflects a profound alteration successful perception: Bitcoin is nary longer conscionable a gamble; it is simply a credible alternate asset. “As much of the satellite wakes up to the monolithic derisking we’ve seen successful bitcoin, I deliberation you’ll spot this fig emergence to 5% and beyond,” helium forecasts.

At property time, BTC traded astatine $87,865.

BTC reclaims the channel, 1-day illustration | Source: BTCUSDT connected TradingView.com

Featured representation created with DALL.E, illustration from TradingView.com