Odds that Bitcoin slips below $65K climb to 72% on Polymarket

Prediction markets person turned much bearish connected Bitcoin, aft a play sell-off concisely pushed prices beneath $75,000 connected Monday.

On Polymarket, the likelihood of Bitcoin (BTC) falling beneath $65,000 successful 2026 climbed to 72% connected Monday, with astir $1 cardinal successful volume.

Other ample wagers included bets connected BTC dropping beneath $55,000 and reclaiming $100,000 by year-end, with implied probabilities of 61% and 54%, respectively.

The surge successful downside bets signals a sentiment reversal. The marketplace has erased gains made during President Donald Trump’s November 2024 predetermination win.

The diminution besides marked a notable infinitesimal for Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest publically listed Bitcoin holder, arsenic prices fell beneath its mean acquisition cost for the archetypal clip since precocious 2023.

Bear market, US liquidity compression cited arsenic traders hunt for reasons down sell-off

Some analysts person attributed the latest crypto sell-off to a broader bearish Bitcoin trend. CryptoQuant reiterated that a carnivore marketplace has been successful spot since November 2025, erstwhile Bitcoin fell beneath its 365-day moving average.

“Don’t effort to find bottoms aft a caller limb down,” CryptoQuant caput of research, Julio Moreno, said successful an X station connected Saturday, adding: “Bear marketplace bottoms instrumentality months to form.”

Odds that BTC volition driblet beneath $65K were up 13% astatine clip of writing. Source: Polymarket

Quantum Economics CEO Mati Greenspan said Bitcoin was not designed to emergence successful price, calling that a secondary effect alternatively than its halfway purpose.

“Its main usage lawsuit is to supply a signifier of wealth that is autarkic of governments and banks,” Greenspan wrote connected X connected Monday.

Source: Mati Greenspan

Separately, Global Macro Investor laminitis Raoul Pal linked the downturn to choky US liquidity conditions alternatively than crypto-specific factors.

A imaginable driblet of Bitcoin beneath $65,000 this twelvemonth could tally antagonistic to forecasts from large concern firms and banks.

Late past year, Grayscale Investments predicted Bitcoin could surpass all-time highs of $126,000 by June 2026, citing organization request and clearer US regulation.

Related: Bitcoin’s terms whitethorn person seen ‘deepest pullback’ astatine $77K: Analyst

Standard Chartered and Bernstein projected Bitcoin would scope $150,000 successful 2026, though some had revised earlier, higher targets amid slower inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The quality came amid Polymarket facing a Nevada tribunal bid blocking its lawsuit contracts arsenic unlicensed wagering. Other states, including Tennessee, person besides precocious targeted the level with enforcement actions.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed successful 2025 — and however they’ll alteration successful 2026