Opinion: With Bitcoin’s halving months away, it may be time to go risk-on

More contented than coincidence, the Christmas play is astir the country again and the marketplace is looking bully for yet different run. Bitcoin (BTC) surged to much than $35,000 successful October, different grounds precocious for 2023. The year-long rally has been attributed to unconventional marketplace trends, including excitement implicit the Bitcoin spot ETF applications pending with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

If, similar me, you've been successful the crypto abstraction since 2014, you'd hold that the vacation play comes with a euphoric feeling — particularly this year. Everyone seems to hold that a bull tally is conscionable astir the corner, truthful it’s clip to support a watchful oculus connected the marketplace and research unsocial opportunities successful much than 1 niche — and to contemplate your attack to trading.

A accepted Christmas rally?

Christmas rallies bring excitement and joyousness to galore successful the crypto scene. Historically, the play brings an uptick successful commercialized volumes, important marketplace movements, and terms surges. However, caller years person defied convention, with marketplace dynamics influenced by unprecedented factors. Take the planetary pandemic successful 2020, for example, on with Elon Musk's tweets successful 2021 and 2022. Cryptocurrencies person soared for reasons nary 1 could predict.

Related: Bitcoin beyond 35K for Christmas? Thank Jerome Powell if it happens

Predicting crypto marketplace behaviour is akin to forecasting the weather. It's a challenging endeavor. While past years person brought December delights, this play is influenced by acold much analyzable factors, including regulatory developments and geopolitical tensions.

Never caput ETFs — Bitcoin’s halving lies ahead

Investors person been positioning themselves successful anticipation of a greenlight from the SEC for a Bitcoin ETF. The mentation present is that an ETF volition bring successful organization investors to crypto.

There is besides the euphoria that Bitcoin's upcoming halving lawsuit has brought to the market. The Bitcoin halving lawsuit — scheduled to hap successful April 2024 — is significant. It’s tied to Bitcoin's finite proviso of 21 cardinal coins. The apex cryptocurrency is issued chiefly done mining. Bitcoin's halving refers to the mechanics by which the fig of caller Bitcoin created successful each artifact is reduced by 50%. It occurs each 210,000 blocks (or astir each 4 years). The halving ensures Bitcoin remains a scarce and highly sought-after asset.

BITCOIN to $100k. Saying for years gold&silver GOD’S money. BITCOIN peoples $. Bad quality IF banal & enslaved marketplace clang gold&silver skyrocket. WORSE NEWS IF satellite system crashes BC $1 cardinal Gold $ 75K metallic to $60k. SAVERS of FAKE US $ F’d. DEBT excessively high. Mom, Pop & kids in…

The upcoming halving has led to big predictions for Bitcoin’s price. “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” writer Robert Kiyosaki believes it volition deed astatine slightest $100,000. Max Keiser is forecasting a caller all-time precocious of $220,000. Microstrategy laminitis Michael Saylor is — arsenic ever — highly bullish, envisioning a terms of $1 million. These experts person based their predictions connected some humanities events and societal influences. All of these (potential) happenings person been the large unconventional forces down the rally we've seen successful October. They mostly portend good for the crypto abstraction and it is understandable wherefore the marketplace would respond to them arsenic it's reacted.

In my opinion, Bitcoin could comfortably interruption its all-time precocious of $69,000, and perchance surpass $169,000.

What happens if an ETF isn’t approved?

Analysts astatine fiscal services steadfast JPMorgan person suggested that if the SEC rejects the ETF applications earlier it, it could pb to ineligible enactment by the applicants. A court already ruled successful Grayscale’s favor against the SEC successful August, paving the mode for Grayscale to person its Bitcoin spot into a spot ETF. BlackRock, Cathie Wood‘s ARK Invest, and different firms are besides successful the contention to triumph ETF approvals.

I'm definite it volition beryllium overmuch much boring than this -- but sometimes it does consciousness similar this is each a setup for a elephantine Gensler semi-comedic rug-pull.

Multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs could beryllium approved wrong months. At slightest for now, it seems inevitable, if not imminent.

Conflict successful the Middle East

Geopolitical tensions and outright wars are a wildcard successful the satellite of cryptocurrencies. The ongoing Middle East struggle betwixt Israel and Hamas is simply a stark reminder of however outer factors tin ripple into the market. While the contiguous implications whitethorn not beryllium clear, historically, investors question refuge successful alternate assets —including cryptocurrencies— during planetary crises. So far, the warfare hasn't affected the crypto market, but arsenic the concern unfolds, the marketplace could spot shifts successful sentiment and superior flow.

Three days aft the breakout of the war, crypto prices fell and the terms of lipid surged aft being affected by traders speculating that the warfare whitethorn disrupt supplies if it dispersed to neighboring nations similar Iran. The world's busiest shipping routes similar the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, and the Suez Canal person their location successful the Middle East. This further heightens fearfulness of an economical peril if the concern escalates to these places.

Related: Bitcoin is evolving into a multiasset network

An enlargement of the warfare into the Sinai Peninsula and Suez portion ”increases the risks of an onslaught connected vigor and non-energy commercialized flowing done the Suez Canal,” the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Pat Thaker noted successful a remark to CNBC, “and that accounts for astir 15% of planetary trade, astir 45% of crude oil, 9% of refined, and besides 8% of LNG tankers transit done that route."

There has been nary important effect connected the crypto marketplace truthful far, but if the struggle keeps escalating, it could effect successful heightened terms sensitivity arsenic we participate the Christmas season.

Altcoin season?

Traders eagerly ponder the anticipation of an “altcoin” play happening arsenic festive seasons approach. Based connected humanities information (where we've seen erstwhile alt-seasons hap successful December 2017 and January 2021), we mightiness spot this tally commencement much earnestly successful December. I americium banking connected the adjacent alt-season to tally from December (aided by Bitcoin ETF approvals) and to past until Bitcoin’s halving successful April.

It’s imaginable Bitcoin volition stall astatine a comparatively accordant level until an ETF is approved — which means it whitethorn not beryllium a atrocious clip to commencement looking astatine altcoins. I americium peculiarly keen connected niche sectors including GameFi and tokenized real-world assets (RWA). (Obligatory disclaimer: I person been incorrect successful the past, and I mightiness beryllium incorrect again.) When altcoin play does begin, tokens with invaluable usage cases successful these areas could beryllium astatine the forefront of this run.

This Christmas play holds the committedness of a crypto bull run, but the way remains uncertain. The ETF debacle, planetary tensions, and the imaginable for altcoins each request watchful vigilance. We can't ever foretell the future, but we tin hole for it by staying informed, managing risk, and seizing strategical opportunities. It's not conscionable astir celebrating the holidays — it's astir embracing the aboriginal of concern successful the ever-exciting crypto world.

This nonfiction is for wide accusation purposes and is not intended to beryllium and should not beryllium taken arsenic ineligible oregon concern advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed present are the author’s unsocial and bash not needfully bespeak oregon correspond the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.