Prediction markets bet Bitcoin won’t reach $100K before year’s end

1 hour ago

Bitcoin (BTC) could stay pinned beneath $100,000 for the remainder of 2025 arsenic the marketplace weakened pursuing the US Fed complaint chopped determination connected Wednesday.

Key takeaways:

BTC terms has lone a 30% accidental of hitting $100,000 earlier Jan. 1, according to prediction markets.
Bitcoin treasury buying has slowed significantly, hindering short-term betterment attempts.
Bitcoin faces absorption astatine $94,000, with an ascending triangle breakout imaginable to the $98,000 liquidity zone.

30% accidental BTC reclaims $100,000 earlier New Year

The bulk of traders connected Polymarket and Kalshi expect Bitcoin to stay beneath the $100,000 people for the adjacent 21 days.

As of Dec. 11, Kalshi bettors are pricing successful astir 34% likelihood of BTC crossing $100,000 earlier Dec. 31. Polymarket sets 29% likelihood of BTC touching $100,000 earlier the extremity of 2025.

Bitcoin’s precocious for December sits astatine $94,600, reached connected Tuesday, and the past clip the BTC/USD brace traded supra $100,000 was connected Nov. 13.

Several factors person capped Bitcoin’s rebound attempts successful the abbreviated term, including growing macroeconomic uncertainties and a slowdown successful Bitcoin treasury buys.

Data from reveals that the complaint of companies purchasing Bitcoin per time continues to fall, a motion that institutions could beryllium exhausted.

Despite the reduced Bitcoin treasury demand, Polymarket likelihood for Strategy selling Bitcoin stay marginal earlier the extremity of the year, portion expectations for regular tiny buys enactment elevated.

Additionally, Polymarket traders inactive see regular Strategy purchases this week arsenic a high-probability event, with a 65% accidental of buying implicit 1,000 BTC.

Last week, Strategy expanded its Bitcoin treasury to 660,624 BTC aft buying 10,624 coins for astir $962.7 million, and is connected people to lucifer past year’s Bitcoin purchases.

Bitcoin’s upside could beryllium capped astatine $98,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the BTC/USD brace has been consolidating wrong an ascending triangle successful little clip frames.

The terms is “now pushing against this absorption again,” said expert Daan Crypto Trades successful an X station connected Wednesday, referring to the proviso portion betwixt the $93,300 yearly unfastened and $94,000.

A interruption and clasp supra $94,000 should pb to a determination toward the measured people of the triangle astir $108,000, but Daan Crypto Trades said it whitethorn lone spell arsenic precocious arsenic “retesting the erstwhile enactment country astir ~$98K,” adding:

“This is besides wherever a bully magnitude of liquidity is located.”

As Cointelegraph reported, buyers volition person to thrust Bitcoin supra $94,589 to unfastened the gates for a retest of the $98,000-$100,000 zone.

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