Sam Bankman-Fried: The Man, the Hair, the Vision

He mightiness present beryllium a billionaire but Samuel Bankman-Fried inactive has that chaotic puff of hair. It’s hairsbreadth that screams “just rolled retired of bed.” Or a beanbag chair. “I’m up to thing similar 50%, successful presumption of sleeping connected beds,” Bankman-Fried tells CoinDesk.

The 50% is simply a large deal. Beds were erstwhile a luxury that Bankman-Fried couldn’t afford. Only a twelvemonth ago, the erstwhile trader spent astir nights sleeping nether his table successful Hong Kong portion launching a then-obscure trading firm. (I called him erstwhile astatine 3:30 a.m. Hong Kong time. He was astatine the bureau and happily took my call.) Most Americans had ne'er heard of FTX. Even astir bitcoiners had ne'er heard of FTX, an speech that – astatine the clip – focused connected nonrecreational trading products similar derivatives.

This nonfiction is portion of Road to Consensus, a bid highlighting speakers and the large ideas they volition sermon astatine Consensus 2022, CoinDesk's festival of the twelvemonth June 9-12 successful Austin, Texas. Learn more. The interrogation primitively appeared successful the 2021 Most Influential series.

The Miami Heat present play successful the FTX Arena. Quarterback Tom Brady and woman Gisele Bündchen prima successful FTX commercials. During the World Series, you couldn’t miss the FTX signs down location plate, the countless FTX commercials oregon the FTX patches connected the shot umpires’ uniforms. FTX became “the authoritative cryptocurrency exchange” of Major League Baseball, arsenic if shot has utilized a crypto speech since the days of Mickey Mantle.

Flush disconnected a $420 cardinal circular of fundraising, FTX is present worthy an estimated $25 billion, and Bankman-Fried – not yet 30 – is 1 of the richest and astir almighty radical connected the planet.

That doesn’t look to person changed the man. He inactive eats “when it seems due for the fixed day,” which sometimes means 3 p.m., sometimes 3 a.m. He remains a vegan for humanitarian reasons (“it’s each for carnal welfare”), and helium inactive reaches for his beloved Oreos, “one of nature’s much astonishing vegan foods.”

And he’s laser-focused connected regulation. Earlier successful the year, Bankman-Fried spent 5 hours a time personally dealing with regulatory issues, and helium expects regularisation to loom implicit 2022. “It’s a messy world, and determination are 195 countries retired there,” helium says. “Each 1 is separately exploring what their regulatory model volition look like. We’re trying to enactment abreast of each of them.”

Regulation is what drove FTX to determination its office from Hong Kong to the Bahamas, due to the fact that Bankman-Fried says the islands “have a broad regulatory model for crypto, and precise fewer countries person that.”

Bankman-Fried sees over-regulation arsenic the biggest hazard to bitcoin (BTC). He views a “hard ban” arsenic improbable but acknowledges hazard successful a “soft ban.”

“If we saw coordinated enactment of restricting entree to cryptocurrency projects successful the United States and the European Union, that could person a materially atrocious interaction connected the market,” the FTX CEO says.

As for regularisation successful 2022? Bankman-Fried predicts determination volition “almost certainly” beryllium immoderate benignant of stablecoin regularisation due to the fact that there’s “a batch of sound astir it, and there’s a batch of volition for it,” specified arsenic periodic audits of what’s backing the tokens. That could person merit. Like the Winklevoss twins, Bankman-Fried views regularisation successful the U.S. arsenic inevitable and adjacent useful, telling CNN that “the strongest mentation of the crypto manufacture is 1 that does person regulatory oversight.”

Some risks to bitcoin, Bankman-Fried says, person already go little concerning. Exhibit A: the hazard of organization investors fleeing the market. He finds it utile to comparison the authorities of bitcoin today, astatine the extremity of 2021, with bitcoin astatine the extremity of 2017.

“Going into 2018, determination was an tremendous magnitude of excitement,” Bankman-Fried says, arsenic “institutions worldwide were actively trying to determine whether oregon not to get involved.” Then came the crash. These crypto-curious institutions felt they had dodged a bullet, and they remained connected the sidelines. The terms of bitcoin languished.

“It ended up taking different 2 oregon 3 years for a fig of them to get in,” Bankman-Fried says. He imagines that if a clang had occurred during the summertime of 2020, possibly that would person dissuaded ample institutions from entering crypto. But present they are in. The dice is cast. “At this point, I deliberation galore of them are much committed to it present than they were,” says Bankman-Fried, and helium expects much to articulation the enactment successful 2022. “It would instrumentality substantially much antagonistic effects to halt that momentum.”

I was funny what the “negative effects” could mean for FTX itself, peculiarly fixed its monolithic expansion. To the outsider, it seems that FTX spent similar a drunken sailor connected its advertizing spree. And that happened during a throbbing bull run, wherever everyone looks similar a genius. What would hap to FTX if, say, the terms of bitcoin plummets?

Bankman-Fried isn’t losing slumber implicit that, oregon astatine slightest immoderate much slumber than usual. First, and amazingly, helium says FTX’s full endorsement and concern fund accounts for little than 10% of 2021 revenue, and truthful it’s “not a immense deed connected that front.” If bitcoin crashed to $20,000, theoretically, Bankman-Fried would expect semipermanent gross (“or astatine slightest medium-term revenue”) to suffer, but helium said, “I would beryllium shocked if it went down to a constituent wherever we were nary longer profitable.”

And adjacent if bitcoin enters a carnivore market, that caller circular of $420 cardinal gives FTX “a beauteous decent firewall of money.” And that firewall could soon go adjacent much “decent” due to the fact that caller reports bespeak that FTX is looking to rise $1.5 cardinal astatine a imaginable valuation of $32 billion.

The lad of Stanford Law School professors, Bankman-Fried is simply a longtime follower of “effective altruism.” That is, trying to marque arsenic overmuch wealth arsenic imaginable truthful helium tin past donate funds successful a mode that optimizes their impact. In 2020, helium performed a unsmooth calculus and determined that his wealth could service the top bully with 1 elemental function: to footwear President Donald Trump from the White House. His $5 cardinal donation to the Joe Biden campaign, making him 1 of the largest donors, is antithetic successful the libertarian-heavy satellite of crypto.

“I person fixed to immoderate Republicans, I’ve fixed to immoderate Democrats,” Bankman-Fried says diplomatically, past instantly clarifies that “I’ve fixed much to Democrats astatine this point.” He cares much astir argumentation than enactment fealty.

Bankman-Fried seemed appalled, for example, by the Democrats’ projected taxation connected billionaires, telling the New York Times’ DealBook, “I deliberation this could origin hugely antagonistic collateral damage, importantly reducing the magnitude of innovation and taxable basal successful the archetypal place.”

As for 2024? “It’s hard for maine to person a large prediction of that, without knowing who the candidates are going to extremity up being,” which, intentionally oregon not, is an astir hilarious low-key swipe astatine Biden.

Besides, 2024 is simply a beingness away, particularly successful crypto years. By then, we’ll beryllium celebrating New Year’s Eve successful midtown Manhattan astatine the FTX Times Square, we’ll bargain our vacation gifts utilizing the FTX currency app and small kids volition anticipation that Santa brings them gifts from the FTX North Pole.

That is each successful play. The lone harmless stake is that Bankman-Fried inactive won’t person combed his hair.

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