Saylor’s Strategy tipped for S&P 500 inclusion after Q3 earnings: 10X Research

11 hours ago

Despite a diminution successful banal terms and a slowdown successful Bitcoin purchases, Strategy, the world’s largest firm Bitcoin holder, whitethorn person a 70% accidental of being added to the S&P 500 scale earlier the extremity of the year, according to crypto marketplace quality institution 10X Research.

Strategy is acceptable to merchandise its third-quarter 2025 net connected Oct. 30, which are expected to see an estimated $3.8 cardinal summation from fair-value Bitcoin (BTC) accounting.

A profitable 4th would mean a 60%–70% probability that the banal would beryllium included successful the S&P 500 effectual Dec. 19, according to a Wednesday study from 10X Research.

“Capitulation ever feels similar the end — until it softly marks the beginning,” the study states. “The October 30 net release, which could reignite speculation astir the December 5 S&P 500 inclusion determination — a script we delegate a astir 70% probability.”

While capitalist sentiment astir the banal remains “washed out,” the net study presents an “obvious catalyst” for Strategy, 10X said.

Bitcoin slowdown and valuation strain

The prediction comes contempt broader concerns implicit the sustainability of integer plus treasuries (DATs), arsenic respective companies person seen their marketplace nett plus worth (mNAV) autumn beneath cardinal thresholds this year.

The mNAV ratio compares a company’s endeavor worth to the worth of its crypto holdings. An mNAV supra 1 allows a steadfast to rise funds by issuing caller shares to accumulate integer assets. Values beneath 1 marque it overmuch harder to grow superior and holdings.

Several DATs saw their mNAV gaffe beneath this cardinal level, efficaciously shutting down their quality to rise funds for further purchases. The firms included Strategy, Bitmine, Metaplanet (MTPLF), Sharplink Gaming (SBET), Upexi (UPXI) and DeFi Development Corp (DFDV).

Crypto marketplace liquidity volition instrumentality astatine “this point” of the cycle

Strategy has slowed its Bitcoin purchases implicit the past month. The institution lone acquired 778 Bitcoin during October, 1 of its smallest monthly hauls, down 78% from the 3,526 BTC it bought successful September.

Despite the slowing Bitcoin acquisitions and $19 cardinal marketplace correction, this whitethorn beryllium “precisely the point” of the crypto marketplace rhythm erstwhile “liquidity returns and outsized moves instrumentality shape,” according to 10X Research.

“With the NAV premium mostly unwound, which caused $18 cardinal successful losses for investors and volatility opening to prime up again, the risk-reward dynamic is nary longer astir bracing for downside — it’s astir preparing for what comes next.”

Despite the favorable outlook, Strategy received a “B-” recognition rating from S&P Global Ratings, placing it successful the speculative, non-investment people territory often associated with “junk bonds,” contempt having a affirmative outlook connected its banal price.

This marks the archetypal clip a Bitcoin‑treasury-focused company has received an S&P Global assessment, establishing a caller imaginable benchmark for accepted concern participants evaluating crypto firms.