Short the dip and buy the rip? What FOMC outcomes reveal about Bitcoin price action

Bitcoin (BTC) terms surged supra $94,000 connected Tuesday, a time earlier the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) involvement complaint decision, and past suggests that traders should brace for volatility.

Throughout 2025, BTC’s show astir FOMC meetings revealed that macroeconomic expectations are often priced in, and this front-running by traders tin overshadow the existent interaction of the argumentation determination itself.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin has historically sold disconnected aft astir FOMC events, including during rate-cut cycles.

• BTC’s biggest inflows and leverage built up earlier FOMC events, thinning spot liquidity, and amplifying terms volatility aft the Fed decision.

FOMC outcomes item a unsocial Bitcoin terms pattern

Bitcoin’s reactions to the 7 FOMC decisions successful 2025 revealed a signifier of anticipatory pricing followed by inconsistent, often negative, post-event moves. Here is however BTC reacted implicit the seven-day model aft each meeting:

• Jan. 29 — No change: -4.58%

• March 19 — No change: +5.11%

• May 7 — No change: +6.92%

• June 18 — No change: +1.48%

• July 30 — No change: -3.15%

• Sept. 17 — Cut 25 bps: -6.90%

• Oct. 29 — Cut 25 bps: -8.00%

Bitcoin 7-day terms result station FOMC lawsuit successful 2025. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Seven-day BTC returns aft each gathering ranged from +6.9% to –8%, with involvement rate-cut meetings delivering the weakest performance. That divergence became clearer erstwhile viewed done marketplace operation alternatively than macroeconomic headlines. These outcomes pointed to a acceptable of accordant structural drivers down BTC’s reactions:

1. Positioning dictated outcomes: 

Before aggregate meetings, astir notably July, September, and October, backing rates and unfastened involvement roseate sharply, indicating an overleveraged market. As illustrated successful the chart, new-money (one-day to one-month) nett realized peaked successful May, July, and September, which besides marked the caller BTC peak.

Age-band unrealized P&L distribution. Source: CryptoQuant

Much of the “dovish upside” was already embedded successful the price, leaving BTC with constricted marginal buying powerfulness erstwhile the FOMC announcement was made.

2. Rate cuts produced the largest drawdowns:

The September and Oct. 25 BPS cuts were followed by –6.9% and –8% seven-day decline. The easing rhythm was already priced successful done pre-FOMC inflows and assertive agelong positioning, creating vulnerability alternatively than enactment erstwhile the chopped became official.

3. Priced successful question signaled fragility, not stability:

When argumentation outcomes became near-certain, volatility compressed up of the gathering and expanded instantly afterward arsenic traders utilized confirmed quality to trim exposure, creating predictable short-term dislocations. Crypto expert Ardi expected a akin outcome, stating, 

Overall, the information showed FOMC events acted little arsenic directional catalysts and much arsenic reset points wherever overstretched positioning whitethorn unwind, adjacent if the involvement complaint result was dovish.

Related: Key Bitcoin terms levels to ticker up of 2025’s past FOMC meeting

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision.

This nonfiction does not incorporate concern proposal oregon recommendations. Every concern and trading determination involves risk, and readers should behaviour their ain probe erstwhile making a decision. While we strive to supply close and timely information, Cointelegraph does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, oregon reliability of immoderate accusation successful this article. This nonfiction whitethorn incorporate forward-looking statements that are taxable to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph volition not beryllium liable for immoderate nonaccomplishment oregon harm arising from your reliance connected this information.