Space X IPO: 'Bad news' for tech stocks but what about Bitcoin?

Elon Musk's rocket and outer institution SpaceX is readying a $75 cardinal IPO successful June, which could marque it the largest near-term nationalist listing with a large Bitcoin treasury.

Key takeaways:

• A Nasdaq 100 accelerated introduction could grow Bitcoin vulnerability among the apical mega-cap stocks, including Tesla.
• The IPO whitethorn unit tech stocks arsenic passive funds merchantability existing Nasdaq names to bargain SpaceX, which whitethorn beryllium bearish for Bitcoin.

SpaceX IPO acceptable to summation Nasdaq's vulnerability to Bitcoin

SpaceX disclosed 18,712 BTC successful its recent S-1 filing, worthy astir $1.45 billion, making it the largest known Bitcoin holder among companies preparing for, oregon precocious filing for, a nationalist listing.

Source: SpaceX's S1 Filing

Under Nasdaq’s newer "fast entry" rules, mega-cap IPOs tin participate the Nasdaq 100 wrong 15 trading days, meaning SpaceX could rapidly go 1 of the index’s largest constituents if its valuation lands adjacent the $1.75 trillion–$2 trillion scope aft the $75 cardinal IPO.

As a result, Bitcoin vulnerability wrong the Nasdaq 100 whitethorn grow beyond Tesla.

The electrical carmaker already holds 11,509 BTC connected its equilibrium sheet. SpaceX, with 18,712 BTC, would springiness the Nasdaq 100 a 2nd Elon Musk-linked mega-cap institution with nonstop Bitcoin exposure.

"With the SpaceX IPO, the Mag 7 volition go the Mag 8," said Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, portion referring to the elite radical of mega-cap tech stocks, namely Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla.

He added:

"25% of the Mag 8 volition person Bitcoin connected their equilibrium sheet."

Bitcoin inactive faces downside risks

SpaceX IPO whitethorn beryllium "bad quality for tech stocks," according to expert Nic Puckrin.

"If it's added to the Nasdaq 100 successful a 'fast entry', passive funds person to bargain it & merchantability different stock," Puckrin said successful a Friday post, adding:

"The higher SpaceX goes, the much they bargain of it and merchantability of others. It's going to enactment similar a monolithic superior vacuum."

Puckrin based his outlook connected JPMorgan estimates showing that Nvidia could look much than $20 cardinal successful passive outflows if SpaceX enters the Nasdaq 100.

JPMorgan projections for rebalancing outflows from passive investors. Source: Financial Times/Nic Puckrin

Apple could look astir $16 cardinal successful estimated passive outflows, with Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta and Tesla besides apt to service arsenic backing sources for the SpaceX rebalance.

Bitcoin has traded intimately with mega-cap tech for astir of 2026.

As of Friday, BTC’s 30-day rolling correlation with the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS), which tracks the Mag 7 stocks, stood adjacent +0.81.

BTC/USD vs. MAGS correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView

For traders, that means BTC has precocious moved successful the aforesaid absorption arsenic large tech stocks much often than not.

So, if the SpaceX rebalance pressures Nvidia, Apple, Tesla and different ample tech names, Bitcoin whitethorn besides look short-term downside hazard arsenic investors trim vulnerability to the broader risk-on trade.

How debased tin BTC terms go?

On-chain metrics amusement Bitcoin's evident request has dropped to its lowest successful 4 months, which may pb to months of consolidation.

That anemic request backdrop besides lines up with BTC’s existent method structure. Since February, Bitcoin has been moving wrong an upward-sloping carnivore flag, a signifier that often forms during a intermission successful a broader downtrend.

For now, BTC’s contiguous downside people sits astir the $73,000–$74,000 range, adjacent the flag’s little trendline. A rebound from that country could nonstop the terms backmost toward the flag’s precocious bound adjacent $85,000.

BTC/USD regular chart. Source: TradingView

Related: Bitcoin liquidity equilibrium hints astatine processing rally toward $80K

The emblem setup could unfastened the doorway to a deeper diminution toward $56,000, based connected the pattern’s measured move, if BTC closes decisively nether the little inclination line.