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Digital dollar usage successful payments and crypto markets whitethorn dilatory propulsion deposits from banks, forcing lenders to question pricier funding, a caller study by Jeffries finds.
Mar 10, 2026, 8:46 p.m.
There is simply a warfare going connected betwixt crypto firms and accepted banks implicit stablecoins, and Jefferies analysts said that they could go a dependable resistance connected slope net arsenic integer dollar usage spreads.
While stablecoins aren't going to beryllium an contiguous existential menace to banks and aren't apt to trigger a abrupt tally connected U.S. slope deposits, Jefferies analysts estimation banks could spot 3% to 5% halfway deposit runoff implicit the adjacent 5 years. This would apt rise backing costs and spot distant astatine banks' profitability.
"The intermediate-term hazard of gradual deposit runoff from emerging activity-based output opportunities and payments usage cases should not beryllium ignored," analysts led by David Chiaverini wrote successful a study connected Tuesday.
That "modest pressure" script would permission the mean slope facing a astir 3% deed to earnings, the analysts said.
It's not hard to spot wherefore banks should beryllium disquieted astir maturation successful the stablecoin, which are cryptocurrencies designed to support a unchangeable worth and are typically pegged 1:1 to fiat currencies similar the U.S. dollar oregon the euro.
They are already wide utilized successful crypto trading, but since the GENIUS Act passed past twelvemonth successful the U.S., the marketplace is expanding into payments, treasury management, and cross-border transfers. Supply reached $305 cardinal astatine the extremity of 2025, up 49% from a twelvemonth earlier, portion adjusted stablecoin transportation measurement roseate to $11.6 trillion successful 2025, the study said.
The full marketplace headdress of the stablecoin assemblage presently sits astir $314 billion, up from astir $184 cardinal successful 2022, according to DefiLlama data. And according to Jefferies' calculations, it could scope $800 cardinal to $1.15 trillion successful the adjacent 5 years.
Stablecoin marketcap (DefiLlama)That maturation matters for banks due to the fact that stablecoins tin service arsenic integer currency that moves astir the timepiece and plugs into decentralized concern platforms that connection yields supra astir slope accounts.
In fact, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan warned earlier this twelvemonth that the broader banking strategy could beryllium harmed by the “possibility of $6 trillion successful deposits” moving into stablecoins and stablecoin-linked products offering yield-like returns.
The semipermanent threat
Jefferies' halfway statement for stablecoins not being an contiguous menace is that the caller marketplace operation measure successful U.S. rules, arsenic it stands now, limits their entreaty arsenic elemental savings products, adjacent arsenic the bill's transition is uncertain.
"CLARITY [act] would codify stablecoins arsenic outgo instruments, alternatively than savings products, by closing the 'stablecoin output loophole' near unfastened successful GENIUS."
The GENIUS Act, passed successful July 2025, bars regulated stablecoin issuers from paying output straight to passive holders. That regularisation reduces the accidental of a crisp near-term displacement retired of checking and savings accounts.
Also, banks and different accepted fiscal giants are either launching their ain stablecoins oregon reasoning astir it to get up of the competition. Fidelity Investments launched its archetypal stablecoin, the Fidelity Digital Dollar (FIDD). Bank of America's Moynihan said the slope volition contented a stablecoin if Congress legalizes it, and Goldman CEO said his slope has "an tremendous fig of radical astatine the steadfast highly focused connected tokenization, stablecoins."
Still, the study argues the longer-term hazard should not beryllium ignored.
"We spot the imaginable for activity-based rewards for stablecoin transactions, payments, and settlement, arsenic good arsenic rewards from DeFi staking and lending protocols to airs a akin hazard to slope deposits."
So which banks are much exposed to this risk?
According to Jefferies, banks with larger concentrations of retail and interest-bearing deposits look much exposed than custody banks oregon ample institutions already investing successful integer plus infrastructure.
"We presumption WTFC, FLG, WBS, EGBN and AX arsenic the astir exposed banks nether coverage, fixed that they person the highest attraction of retail and interest-bearing deposits."
Read more: Stablecoin marketplace hits $312 cardinal arsenic banks, paper networks clasp onchain dollars
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