7 hours ago
Bitcoin (BTC) could spot its strongest half-year show ever successful precocious 2025, driven by grounds ETF inflows, argumentation risks to the Federal Reserve, and broadening sovereign adoption, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, caput of integer assets probe astatine Standard Chartered.
In a July 2 probe note, Kendrick forecasted that ETF inflows and firm treasury purchases volition transcend the second-quarter levels of 245,000 BTC successful some the 3rd and 4th quarters.
The lender maintained its earlier prediction of Bitcoin hitting $200,000 by year-end and updated its 3rd 4th outlook for Bitcoin with a $135,000 terms projection.
He added that Bitcoin ETF flows person already topped expectations, with the marketplace starting to realise that the crypto’s post-halving terms patterns stay intact contempt earlier doubts.
Policy tailwinds and sovereign buying
Kendrick besides highlighted that successful summation to the buying surge, markets are facing rising risks to Federal Reserve independency arsenic President Donald Trump could perchance regenerate Fed Chair Jerome Powell early, bringing a displacement toward looser monetary policy.
According to Kendrick:
“ETF inflows and firm treasury flows are each US policy-linked.”
Further boosting Bitcoin’s outlook is the passage of the GENIUS Act successful the US, which precocious secured Senate approval. Standard Chartered noted that specified authorities would heighten regulatory clarity, facilitate broader adoption, and integrate crypto further into the accepted fiscal system.
Kendrick besides predicted broadening sovereign adoption of Bitcoin and said that immoderate grounds of national-level buying would enactment semipermanent request and terms stability, akin to the interaction seen from firm treasury accumulation successful caller months.
Halving rhythm mentation is over
The enactment besides addressed marketplace worries astir Bitcoin’s halving cycle, a scheduled lawsuit each 4 years that cuts mining rewards successful fractional and historically influences terms patterns.
Kendrick explained that successful erstwhile cycles, Bitcoin prices person fallen astir 18 months aft a halving, which would connote imaginable declines astir September oregon October of this twelvemonth based connected the April 2024 halving.
However, Standard Chartered believes that the dynamic has changed. Kendrick wrote that acknowledgment to beardown ETF inflows and firm treasury buying, factors that were absent successful earlier cycles, Bitcoin whitethorn debar the emblematic post-halving decline.
He said terms is apt to beryllium volatile successful precocious September and aboriginal October arsenic markets absorption connected this humanities pattern, but forecasted that the uptrend volition resume astatine year-end, driven by these caller structural request factors.
Kendrick concluded that the coming months volition show however Bitcoin has moved beyond its erstwhile halving rhythm behaviour, summarising his outlook simply:
“Buckle up.”
The station StanChart predicts Bitcoin’s caller rhythm whitethorn defy past patterns with ETF and argumentation tailwinds appeared archetypal connected CryptoSlate.
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