3 hours ago
Standard Chartered warned that Bitcoin (BTC) could perchance gaffe further to betwixt $69,000 and $76,500 implicit the adjacent 2 days, continuing its caller streak of reddish weekends.
According to the lender’s caput of integer plus probe Geoffrey Kendrick, the downside hazard is driven by continued ETF outflows and mounting hedge money abbreviated position.
ETF outflows and hedge money shorts
Kendrick elaborate increasing concerns implicit the market’s caller weakness and lamented the lack of extended breaks enjoyed by different markets.
He said:
“It is astatine the extremity of weeks similar this that integer plus participants privation the plus people closed for the weekend.”
He added that Bitcoin’s drop beneath $80,000 — erstwhile a cardinal absorption level pursuing Trump’s predetermination triumph — raises questions astir however acold the sell-off mightiness go.
Kendrick’s investigation pointed to important ETF enactment arsenic a harbinger of further declines. He noted that Bitcoin ETF outflows astir touched $1 cardinal connected Feb. 25, which is simply a captious threshold. Despite the important outflows, Kendrick believes the merchantability unit whitethorn not beryllium over.
He besides highlighted a increasing disconnect betwixt ETF positioning and hedge money abbreviated vulnerability based connected CFTC data.
Kendrick observed that since the US election, ETF positions surged from $23.5 cardinal to a highest of $40.2 cardinal — present down to $37.0 cardinal — portion hedge money shorts climbed from $7.9 cardinal to $11.3 cardinal arsenic of Feb. 18.
Kendrick noted:
“ETF positions are up 71% since Nov. 5, but hedge money shorts are up lone 43%. This implies determination is inactive a batch (the majority) of outright longs successful the ETFs. To the grade these stem from underlying retail travel I deliberation they stay astatine hazard of panic selling.”
Geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty
Kendrick revisited his earlier caution regarding downside risks, informing that Bitcoin’s cardinal convexity hazard level of $90,000 had been breached.
He had said earlier successful the week:
“While BTC trades comparatively good wrong the integer plus complex, it is present caught up successful the broader risk-off sentiment.”
Kendrick added that little US Treasury yields might connection semipermanent support adjacent arsenic near-term sentiment remains bleak but cautioned against buying the dip earlier a much decisive dip.
Looking up to the weekend, Kendrick expressed skepticism that hazard assets would rally fixed looming geopolitical tensions and tariff implementations.
He said:
“Probably just to presume we person had the Trump tariff sound now… But are hazard assets truly going to rally into the play present we person had the atrocious news? I uncertainty it.”
Recalling a akin play successful August 2024 — erstwhile panic selling pushed Bitcoin beneath $50,000 aft a accelerated 5.5% diminution — helium noted that different driblet of akin magnitude could spot Bitcoin descent into the $69,000 to $76,500 range.
The station StanChart warns of further downside for Bitcoin implicit the play akin to August 2024 appeared archetypal connected CryptoSlate.
English (US) 