Strategy in 2026: Can its Bitcoin-first model hold up?

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In aboriginal 2025, Michael Saylor’s exertion institution MicroStrategy officially rebranded to Strategy and adopted a Bitcoin-themed ocular selling programme to bespeak its halfway absorption arsenic the world’s largest firm BTC holder.

As of Dec. 30, Strategy has accumulated 672,497 Bitcoin (BTC), valued astatine astir $59 cardinal and acquired astatine an mean terms of $74,997 per coin. With Bitcoin trading adjacent $88,000, the institution is sitting connected an unrealized summation of astir 17%.

However, contempt the insubstantial profits, unit has been building. Strategy indispensable proceed servicing dividends and financing costs tied to the preferred shares and indebtedness utilized to money its Bitcoin purchases, creating fixed currency obligations careless of Bitcoin’s terms moves.

Those concerns resurfaced successful November erstwhile Bitcoin slid to $82,000. To reassure investors astir its quality to conscionable dividend and indebtedness payments, connected Dec. 1, Strategy said it established a $1.44 cardinal currency reserve to screen astatine slightest 12 months of preferred dividends and indebtedness interest.

As 2026 approaches, investors are questioning whether the exemplary tin withstand deteriorating marketplace conditions.

From concern quality to Bitcoin treasury

Strategy archetypal started buying Bitcoin successful August 2020, announcing its archetypal acquisition of 21,454 BTC for $250 cardinal arsenic a strategical treasury reserve asset. Ever since, the institution has evolved into a full-scale superior markets strategy.

Through at-the-market (ATM) equity programs, convertible notes and preferred banal issuances, Strategy has raised superior to get Bitcoin without selling its halfway holdings.

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The effect is simply a operation that offers leveraged vulnerability to Bitcoin portion maintaining a bequest bundle concern that inactive generates operating revenue, though its publication to valuation has diminished significantly.

Notably, Strategy’s nett swings successful 2025 were besides heavy influenced by a shift to fair-value accounting for Bitcoin, which requires the institution to revalue its BTC holdings each 4th and publication unrealized gains oregon losses successful nett income. This alteration has made net much volatile, arsenic movements successful Bitcoin’s terms present travel straight done reported results, adjacent erstwhile nary Bitcoin is sold.

“Strategy stopped being a bundle communicative the time Bitcoin became 98% of the narrative. Today it’s a Bitcoin hedge money wearing a BI ticker,” Marvin Bertin, co-founder and CEO astatine Maestro, told Cointelegraph.

He said the analytics concern inactive exists, but is negligible adjacent to the company’s monolithic BTC equilibrium sheet.

For years, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings made the institution a preferred conveyance for investors seeking equity-based Bitcoin exposure, efficaciously serving arsenic a proxy for BTC astatine a clip erstwhile nonstop ownership oregon regulated spot products were not wide available.

However, Bitcoin ETFs person present introduced cheaper vulnerability for institutions. Moreover, MSCI is consulting connected imaginable index-rule changes that could exclude crypto-heavy “digital plus treasury” companies, which Strategy says could unit passive outflows if implemented.

MSCI is simply a large planetary scale supplier whose benchmarks are utilized by trillions of dollars successful passive and progressive concern funds to determine what stocks to buy. Strategy’s removal from an MSCI scale matters due to the fact that index-tracking funds are often forced to merchantability the stock, which tin trim demand, liquidity and visibility.

Can Strategy’s Bitcoin exemplary past 2026?

Jamie Elkaleh, main selling serviceman of Bitget Wallet, told Cointelegraph that Strategy’s exemplary “remains sustainable arsenic agelong arsenic the crypto marketplace stays constructive.”

However, heading into 2026, helium warned of “persistent dilution, sensitivity to interest-rate conditions, and the anticipation that capitalist sentiment turns against leveraged crypto equilibrium sheets.”

“If markets tighten oregon appetite for equity-financed BTC vulnerability weakens, this attack becomes acold much hard to execute,” Elkaleh added.

Bertin echoed this sentiment, noting that Strategy’s Bitcoin exemplary works good successful beardown bull markets, wherever the institution tin contented preferred banal and equity astatine a premium to its BTC holdings.

However, successful level oregon choppy markets, that premium could crook into a discount, making caller issuance value-destructive. Bertin warned that rising rates, contention from spot Bitcoin ETFs and capitalist fatigue could stall the model, portion dividend obligations whitethorn yet unit the institution to merchantability Bitcoin.

What happens to Strategy if BTC drops 20%–30%?

Bitcoin is simply a highly volatile asset. Historically, the cryptocurrency has adjacent fallen 20%–40% during bull markets earlier resuming its trend.

“We could easy spot a important correction successful crypto assets successful the coming carnivore marketplace of 2026 and beyond, and a 20%-30% correction successful Bitcoin isn't that improbable to happen,” Joel Valenzuela, Dash DAO halfway member, said.

A driblet this size wouldn’t instantly endanger Strategy’s survival, but it could interruption the mechanics of its concern model, Bertin said. He explained that a crisp diminution would shrink the worth of its Bitcoin holdings and erase the equity premium that allows the institution to contented shares supra Net Asset Value (NAV), which is calculated by subtracting the fund’s full liabilities from its full assets and past dividing by the fig of outstanding shares.

At the aforesaid time, Strategy would inactive look ample currency obligations from high-yield preferreds and convertible instruments. That would permission fewer charismatic options, including issuing banal astatine a discount, selling Bitcoin to screen payouts, oregon operating arsenic an costly proxy successful a marketplace present dominated by low-cost Bitcoin ETFs.

“It risks turning Strategy from the flagship of firm Bitcoin into the lawsuit survey successful however leverage and dilution softly termination a large narrative,” Bertin said.

However, Elkaleh noted that the standard of Strategy’s holdings “provides semipermanent optionality for betterment if the broader crypto rhythm stabilizes.” He inactive warned that, successful the abbreviated term, immoderate large BTC drawdown would meaningfully strain its superior structure.

Bull lawsuit vs. carnivore lawsuit scenarios

In the optimistic scenario, Bitcoin resumes its rally, restoring Strategy’s NAV premium, which has briefly dropped beneath 1 successful caller months, meaning its marketplace worth was little than the worth of its underlying Bitcoin holdings minus liabilities.

Elkaleh said Bitcoin could interruption supra $150,000 adjacent year, enabling Strategy to resume accretive issuance and present equity gains of 100% oregon more.

In his bullish case, Bertin predicted a beardown Bitcoin breakout with sustained ETF inflows restoring Strategy’s equity premium, allowing it to contented banal supra NAV, discontinue costly indebtedness and erstwhile again outperform Bitcoin arsenic a high-beta organization proxy.

However, helium warned that successful the carnivore case, the NAV discount persists, equity raises “become value-destructive, preferreds and converts are a increasing taxation connected the treasury, and ‘never sell’ collides with basal balance-sheet math.”

Valenzuela besides warned that forced Bitcoin income could trigger “a cascading liquidation event,” perchance affecting broader crypto markets.

“The overlooked space is that the bull lawsuit is conscionable a hope, portion the carnivore lawsuit is an accounting certainty,” Bertin said.

There is nary azygous metric that defines Strategy’s occurrence successful 2026. Investors volition request to show Bitcoin holdings, mean acquisition cost, leverage ratios, preferred and indebtedness issuance and crypto marketplace performance.

What’s wide is that Strategy is nary longer viewed arsenic a accepted operating company. It has go a leveraged Bitcoin conveyance with an operating concern attached, a operation that tin outperform dramatically successful a bull market, and underperform conscionable arsenic sharply erstwhile conditions reverse.

As Elkaleh enactment it, Strategy offers “amplified Bitcoin vulnerability on with the risks that travel with leverage and dilution.”

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