Tom Lee Says Ethereum Looks Ready To Exit Crypto Winter

4 days ago

Tom Lee utilized a Hong Kong league signifier to reason that Ethereum whitethorn beryllium adjacent to a cyclical turn, pointing to humanities marketplace analogs and on-chain cost-basis information that, successful his view, suggest the selloff has reached exhaustion.

Speaking astatine the 3rd Futu Expo 2026 successful Hong Kong connected March 13–14, Lee said Bitmine advisor Tom DeMark had identified a striking resemblance betwixt Ethereum’s caller terms enactment and 2 large S&P 500 declines: the 1987 clang and the 2011 selloff. Lee described the setup arsenic unusually tight.

Is The Ethereum Bottom In?

“Tom DeMark, he’s a legendary marketplace timer, and he’s provided an investigation to america that says Ethereum, successful the past fewer months, particularly since October, is truly mirroring what happened to the S&P 500 successful 2011 and what happened to the S&P 500 successful 1987,” Lee said. “If you were progressive successful US markets, some times marked large declines successful the S&P. Well, according to him, there’s a 93% correlation to what Ethereum’s doing contiguous to what the S&P did successful 1987.”

That examination is doing a batch of enactment successful Lee’s argument. If the 1987 analog holds, helium said, Ethereum would person already bottomed connected March 7. If the 2011 examination is the amended fit, the market is bottoming now. In either case, Lee’s decision was the same: “So utilizing his analysis, we deliberation we’re astatine the bottommost oregon exiting the crypto wintertime now.”

He did not permission the lawsuit resting connected illustration symmetry alone. Lee besides pointed to Ethereum’s realized price, the on-chain metric that estimates the mean acquisition outgo of coins based connected their past question connected the blockchain. In his telling, that fig present sits astatine $2,241 for ETH, giving investors a mode to justice however profoundly underwater the mean holder has become.

Lee said the signifier astatine anterior lows is revealing. In 2022, Ethereum fell to a 39% discount to realized price. In 2025, the discount reached 21% earlier ETH turned higher. “Currently, we’re astatine 22%,” helium said, adding that the marketplace is present sitting successful astir the aforesaid portion wherever past year’s reversal began. “So we’re astatine the level wherever successful 2025, Ethereum started to crook higher.”

In different words, Lee’s thesis is that Ethereum does not request a pristine macro backdrop oregon a caller communicative rhythm to stabilize; it lone needs to revisit the benignant of holder symptom that has historically marked exhaustion. By his measure, that threshold is already here.

TOM LEE:
THE ETHEREUM BOTTOM IS IN ‼️

Bitmine x TOM DEMARK mapped ETH against past S&P 500 clang recoveries.

The operation present intimately matches 1987 and 2011, some large rhythm bottoms.

🔹 93% correlation to 1987
🔹 Match to 2011 bottom
🔹 Realized price: $2,241
🔹 ETH ~22%… pic.twitter.com/62TZscjChe

— BMNR Bullz (@BMNRBullz) March 19, 2026

He besides tried to zoom retired from the contiguous drawdown and re-anchor ETH successful a longer clip horizon. “Before you suffer immoderate hope, support successful caput that implicit the past 10 years, Ethereum has outperformed each different plus people implicit the past decade,” Lee said. “In the past 10 years, Ethereum’s instrumentality is 49,000%. That means astir 490 times your money.”

Lee contrasted that with Bitcoin’s 11,000% summation implicit the aforesaid span and adjacent with Nvidia, which helium called “the azygous champion banal successful the US,” saying it had returned 65 times investors’ money.

At property time, ETH traded astatine $2,147.