Trader maintains $67K BTC price target: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the past afloat week of July holding cardinal enactment portion macro clouds proceed to gather.

Key points:

• Bitcoin preserves its 200-week inclination enactment astatine the play close, starring to short-term BTC terms targets of up to $67,000.
• US-Iran warfare rhetoric ramps up, with lipid prices hitting five-week highs up of a week of firm net reports.
• Bitcoin spot request retreats from its early-July uptick contempt ETF inflows.
• Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple heads higher, but analysts are wary of calling a “generational low.”
• Crypto marketplace sentiment hits highest levels since the commencement of June.

Trader sees “further relief” for Bitcoin bulls

In a acquainted move, Bitcoin saw sell-side unit soon aft the play adjacent going into Monday morning, with section lows reaching $63,700, information from TradingView confirms.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Despite this, traders are becoming progressively optimistic connected shorter clip frames arsenic scope lows proceed to hold.

“Wouldn’t astonishment maine if we spot immoderate further alleviation this week - towards 65-67k,” trader Jelle predicted successful his latest analysis posted Monday greeting connected X.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Jelle/X

Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that BTC/USD had sealed its 3rd consecutive play adjacent supra the 200-week elemental moving mean (SMA), presently astatine $63,322.

“To truly get this absorbing you privation to spot a beardown propulsion higher present to retrace that past limb down and get backmost supra the Weekly 200EMA,” helium told X followers, referring to the 200-week exponential moving mean (EMA) astatine $68,521.

“Until then, we’re conscionable caught successful this $60K choppy terms range.”

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Others doubled down connected bullish conviction, with trader Roman again flagging aggregate bullish divergences crossed BTC terms metrics, including the comparative spot scale (RSI), a classical leading indicator.

Contrasting the optimism was seasonality, with BTC terms rhythm past demanding different twelvemonth of bear-market moves.

“Bitcoin is much than halfway done its 2nd twelvemonth successful the existent BTC Four Year Cycle. 2025 proved to beryllium the twelvemonth of the $BTC Bull Market peak. And 2026 has proven itself to beryllium the twelvemonth of the Bitcoin Bear Market,” trader and expert Rekt Capital summarized. 

“2027 volition beryllium the Bottoming Out twelvemonth to precede an wholly marque caller aboriginal Bitcoin Bull Market.”

BTC/USD 12-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

As Cointelegraph reported, Rekt Capital present calculates the existent carnivore marketplace to beryllium conscionable implicit 70% complete.

Iran worries nonstop lipid prices higher

Geopolitical hazard is apical of the docket for risk-asset traders this week arsenic the US-Iran warfare escalates erstwhile again.

Iran’s overseas curate warned of perchance “unresolvable” atomic disputes portion US President Donald Trump called connected lawmakers to adhd Iran to a sanctions measure that was initially directed astatine Russia. 

Source: Truth Social

Oil futures surged astatine the play open, with WTI crude astatine five-week highs supra $80 per tube and Brent crude topping $90.

CFDs connected US WTI crude lipid one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As Cointelegraph reported, the instrumentality of the struggle saw the swift closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a cardinal planetary lipid route, that was concisely cleared for postulation arsenic portion of the now-failed US-Iran bid deal.

The latest Iran events supply volatile backdrop to the week’s macro outlook, which focuses connected large firm net arsenic tech stocks face caller headwinds.

In the coming days, Tesla, Alphabet and Intel volition each report, providing a imaginable short-term volatility catalyst crossed hazard assets.

“Earnings play is officially successful full-swing,” trader assets The Kobeissi Letter summarized successful a thread connected X.

Following past week’s lower-than-expected US ostentation data, meanwhile, Trump was buoyant, calling the numbers “great news.”

“As Investment pours into our Country, Factory Construction surges, Manufacturing Jobs rise, and Prices fall, determination is truthful overmuch to beryllium arrogant of — The Golden Age of America is here!” helium wrote successful a station connected Truth Social.

Markets remained blimpish connected argumentation changes from the Federal Reserve, with the latest information from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showing statement for a 0.25% interest-rate hike successful September.

Fed target-rate probabilities for September FOMC gathering (screenshot).
Source: CME Group

Bitcoin spot request returns lower

Lackluster spot-market request remains a cardinal stumbling artifact connected the roadworthy to bull-market recovery, probe says.

In a blog post connected Monday, onchain analytics level CryptoQuant revealed that a humble proviso summation astatine the commencement of July had already dissipated. 

“Bitcoin’s 30-day Spot Demand recovered sharply to astir -80K BTC successful aboriginal July but has since deteriorated again to astir -170K BTC,” contributor ScenarioX wrote. 

Bitcoin request information (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported connected spot request staying antagonistic portion recovering importantly connected a rolling 30-day ground arsenic BTC/USD deed $64,000. At the aforesaid time, futures markets saw a much pronounced influx of interest.

This was reflected successful nett flows to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which were affirmative for 4 retired of 5 days past week, per information from UK-based concern manager, Farside Investors.

“Despite this important diminution successful spot demand, Bitcoin’s terms has remained comparatively stable, chiefly owed to easing short-term selling unit and abbreviated covering successful the derivatives market,’ ScenarioX said.

“However, derivatives request remains insufficient to enactment a sustainable uptrend connected its own. This leaves the marketplace successful a structurally fragile state, wherever renewed spot selling could trigger a crisp downside move.”

US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

CryptoQuant suggested that the marketplace could inactive proceed to summation “for a while” earlier futures request was exhausted.

“However, the rally without meaningful spot request is apt to extremity successful a important agelong liquidation event,” ScenarioX warned.

Puell Multiple lows neglect to convince

A classical BTC terms metric is showing signs of a reversal this month, but CryptoQuant warns that it is excessively aboriginal to speech of a “generational low.”

The Puell Multiple, which measures the USD worth of recently issued BTC each time comparative to its 365-day moving average, continues to caput higher aft seeing macro lows successful aboriginal June.

“A debased speechmaking means miner income is good beneath normal,” CryptoQuant contributor TheChessOnChain explained successful a blog post.

Bitcoin Puell Multiple. Source: CryptoQuant

Puell successful crook reflects connected Bitcoin miners’ fiscal stability, and June’s 0.87 speechmaking was the lowest since September 2024. Zooming out, however, each BTC terms rhythm has delivered higher lows for Puell, perchance boosting that second reading’s chances of forming the adjacent floor.

“These bottoms are getting shallower, and the four-year proviso chopped (the halving) is not the cause: the metric scales some sides of its ratio, truthful cutting caller proviso cancels out. The existent driver: terms falls little each rhythm (down 83% successful 2018, 77% successful 2022, little since), truthful miner income ne'er sinks arsenic deep,” TheChessOnChain said.

Bitcoin Puell Multiple information (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

While Puell lows bash not strictly correspond to BTC terms bear-market bottoms, TheChessOnChain suggests that waiting for caller little readings — including the metric’s classical heavy worth territory — may beryllium a flawed strategy.

“The 2024 and 2026 lows came with terms inactive high, truthful they are Puell lows, not terms bottoms. Waiting for the classical sub-0.5 zone, wherever miners merchantability astatine a loss, whitethorn mean waiting for a level that nary longer prints,” they said. 

“Today reads arsenic easing miner pressure, not a generational low. It turns decisive lone if it holds beneath caller lows for weeks.”

Crypto sentiment gauge nears two-month high

Despite macro headwinds brewing implicit the weekend, crypto marketplace sentiment continues to station a dependable recovery.

Related: Bitcoin bottommost countdown nears 50 days aft BTC proviso successful nonaccomplishment passed 50%

The latest readings of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index amusement panic dilatory dissipating among the broader capitalist base.

On Monday, the gauge measured 29/100 — still wrong its “fear” bracket but astatine its highest levels since the commencement of June. For overmuch of the intervening period, crypto was gripped by “extreme fear.”

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

In commentary connected the rebound past week, probe level Santiment underscored its timing with the instrumentality of ETF inflows.

“After a agelong outflow agelong passim May and June, this displacement signals ETF request is backmost and assurance successful crypto is starting to prime up again,” it wrote connected X.

Santiment argued that “encouraging” US ostentation data had helped boost hazard appetite, portion “crypto argumentation optimism added different crushed for sidelined buyers to re-enter.”