Trump Tells Reporters Gas Is ‘Way Down’ — US Pump Prices Say Otherwise

U.S. Gas Prices Are up $1.40 From Last Year

Trump made the claim during a property speech this week erstwhile reporters asked astir his Middle East strategy amid pump prices exceeding $4.50 per gallon. He pushed back, telling reporters that gas prices had fallen “very substantially” that time and were “way down.” However, AAA data shows prices held adjacent elevated levels earlier a 1-cent easing — good abbreviated of immoderate important decline.

The numbers archer a antithetic story. At Trump’s January 2025 inauguration, the nationalist mean sat adjacent $3.05 to $3.20 per gallon. By precocious 2025 and aboriginal 2026, prices had pulled backmost to a debased of astir $2.81 successful January 2026. Since then, the trajectory has moved successful 1 direction.

March 2026 brought a monthly mean of $3.64 per gallon. April climbed to astir $4.10. By aboriginal May, prices had crossed $4.45 to $4.58, depending connected the source. The astir caller week unsocial added astir 25 cents to the nationalist average. Compared to May 2025, erstwhile regular averaged $3.14 to $3.26 per gallon, drivers are present paying much than $1.40 other astatine the pump.

The superior operator is the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Military enactment tied to Strait of Hormuz tensions disrupted an estimated 20% of planetary lipid proviso flows. Brent crude crossed $100 per barrel, with WTI trading adjacent $94 to $95. Those crude levels provender straight into retail prices, since lipid typically accounts for 50 to 60% of what consumers wage astatine the pump.

The Energy Information Administration has forecast that Brent could highest adjacent $115 per tube successful the 2nd 4th of 2026 earlier easing, contingent connected struggle resolution. The Brent-WTI dispersed has widened to $5 to $12 per tube owed to elevated shipping costs and proviso way disruptions.

Trump has offered forward-looking assurances passim the conflict. He has told Americans that prices volition “come crashing down” connected respective occasions erstwhile warring ends and cited abundant planetary lipid supplies arsenic a buffer. He has besides referenced post-conflict targets arsenic debased arsenic $2 per gallon. Those claims are speculative and beryllium connected however rapidly the Strait of Hormuz disruptions unwind.

Presidents transportation constricted power implicit short-term retail gas prices. Crude markets, refining margins, taxes, and organisation costs find what consumers pay. The Trump medication has deployed Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases and Jones Act waivers to relieve immoderate pressure, with mixed results.

The 2026 terms trajectory echoes the 2022 spike nether the Biden administration, erstwhile Russia’s penetration of Ukraine helped propulsion the nationalist mean supra $5 per gallon. Wars thin to enactment unit connected vigor markets. Prices moderated betwixt 2023 and 2025 earlier the existent geopolitical daze reversed that trend.

AAA data shows nary week-over-week diminution successful the play Trump referenced. Month-over-month, prices roseate astir 40 cents. Year-over-year, they are up much than $1.40. The EIA’s play retail gasoline reports corroborate those figures.

Trump has taken recognition for the diminution from Biden-era highs that occurred during the archetypal twelvemonth of his 2nd term. That diminution was real. But the existent information does not enactment a assertion that prices dropped this week, substantially oregon otherwise.

Retail prices thin to travel crude with a lag of 1 to 4 weeks, and that prices historically emergence faster than they autumn — a dynamic sometimes called “rockets and feathers.” If the struggle de-escalates and crude pulls backmost from existent levels, consumers would apt spot alleviation wrong weeks, not days.