US Bond Markets Signal Economic Downturn, Trend Forecaster Says if War Ensues ‘Odds of Recession Increase’

As Americans proceed to woody with rising inflation, connected Tuesday the dispersed betwixt 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted, signaling the U.S. system whitethorn beryllium headed for a recession. This week, a myriad of fiscal reports person noted that the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency presumption could beryllium undermined. Moreover, there’s besides the anticipation of crude lipid prices reaching upwards of $250 per barrel, according to a apical hedge money manager.

Ominous Inverted Yield Curve Sends Recession Signals, While the Dollar’s Reserve Currency Status Is Questioned

On March 29, a intimately observed enslaved marketplace indicator flashed a signal that usually indicates the U.S. system is owed for a recession. The awesome took spot successful Treasury enslaved markets arsenic the dispersed betwixt 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes inverted for the archetypal clip since 2019. The pursuing day, the output curve inverted erstwhile again arsenic 2-year bonds reached 2.377% connected Wednesday, and 10-year notes slid arsenic debased arsenic 2.334%.

The inversion has taken spot portion inflation successful the U.S. has been red hot and the Federal Reserve prepares to tighten monetary easing tactics and raise the benchmark slope rate. There’s besides been a fig of reports successful caller times that question whether oregon not the U.S. dollar could suffer the fiat currency’s reserve currency status. The Economist asks: “Will dollar dominance springiness mode to a multipolar strategy of currencies?” successful a caller report, and the fiscal authors astatine Barron’s and South China Morning Post (SCMP) inquire the same question oregon claim de-dollarization volition fail.

Top Trend Forecaster Says arsenic Long arsenic War Ensues ‘the Odds of a Global Recession Increase’ — Crude Oil Could Skyrocket arsenic High arsenic $250 per Barrel

Gerald Celente, a inclination forecaster and steadfast of the Trends Journal, doesn’t person a agleam outlook connected the system and precocious said we’ve progressed from the “Covid War to World War III.”

COVID WAR to WW III

— Gerald Celente (@geraldcelente) March 31, 2022

“[The Covid] War has taken a toll connected the planetary system that is not being recognized nor reported,” Celente tweeted connected Thursday. “And portion the ‘Bigs’ person gotten bigger with merger and acquisitions and banal buy-backs astatine all-time highs, connected Main Street, expanding economical hardship prevails… and volition worsen,” helium added. Celente further added:

As agelong arsenic the Ukraine War ensues, and sanctions stay successful spot against Russia, arsenic we person greatly elaborate successful the past 2 editions of the Trends Journal, the likelihood of a planetary recession increase, arsenic volition its severity.

Celente’s caller Trends successful the News blog station connected substack.com highlights however immoderate executives are predicting lipid prices to emergence arsenic precocious arsenic $250 per barrel. The inclination forecaster quoted Pierre Andurand’s caller quote erstwhile the hedge money manager astatine Andurand Capital Management said it’s imaginable crude lipid prices per tube could deed $250 this year. Celente’s probe delves down into much experts who judge crude lipid prices per tube could skyrocket. Celente besides quotes Trafigura trader Ben Luckock who explained lipid could apical $150 this summer.

Currency Analyst: ‘One of These Stories Is Wrong’

With ostentation rising accelerated successful the U.S. and this week’s Treasury notes inversion, connected Thursday each large banal indexes similar the Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and NYSE closed the time successful red. Reports besides bespeak that “Bond investors look acold much pessimistic connected the economy.” Furthermore, the inverted output curve has predicted a looming recession each clip for the past 60 years, according to research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. However, diverging signals proceed to confuse investors and sooner oregon later, thing volition person to give.

“Rates markets are precise accordant successful telling a communicative wherever the Fed is going to bash immoderate harm to the economy,” Edward Al Hussainy, elder involvement complaint and currency expert astatine Columbia Threadneedle told Reuters connected Thursday. “[Meanwhile,] hazard markets person not truly done a bully occupation of pricing immoderate important harm to the maturation outlook. One of these stories is wrong,” the expert added.

What bash you deliberation astir the inverted output curve this week and the anticipation of crude lipid reaching $250 per barrel? Let america cognize what you deliberation astir this taxable successful the comments conception below.

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