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Bitcoin has jumped much than 170% from its launch‑month terms astir $45,000 to astir $123,000 earlier this month.
Based connected reports from Citi, the slope has laid retired 3 scenarios for wherever the terms mightiness onshore by year‑end 2025. These scope from a debased of $64,000 successful a anemic marketplace to a bull lawsuit of $199,000 if everything goes right.
ETF Flows Take Center Stage In Bitcoin Uptrend
According to Citi analysts, spot Bitcoin ETFs present explicate implicit 40% of the caller terms swings. Since their debut, US ETFs person snapped up astir $54.66 cardinal worthy of Bitcoin.
That buying powerfulness helped thrust BTC from astir $45,000 to $123,000 successful conscionable a fewer months. The bank’s basal lawsuit assumes different $15 cardinal successful ETF inflows this year. At the ratio they’ve modeled—about $4 of terms per $1 of flow—that would adhd astir $63,000 to Bitcoin’s value.
🚨 Bitcoin Could Surge to $199K by Year-End, Says Citi
Citigroup has released a caller forecast projecting Bitcoin to scope $135,000 by the extremity of 2025 successful its base-case scenario. The bullish lawsuit estimates a imaginable emergence to $199,000, portion the bearish outlook places the… pic.twitter.com/3Kp1o8OGsn
— The Tradesman (@The_Tradesman1) July 26, 2025
User Growth Fuels Network Effects
Based connected figures from trading desks and on‑chain metrics, Citi expects a 20% emergence successful progressive Bitcoin users implicit the adjacent year. That leap successful adoption would enactment astir $75,000 of terms spot connected its own.
The thought is simple. More users mean much hands holding and trading Bitcoin. That enactment tends to marque prices little prone to abrupt drops. Still, forecasts similar this remainder connected the presumption that caller users instrumentality astir alternatively than flipping coins for speedy gains.
Macroeconomic Factors Cut Forecast Slightly
Citi’s exemplary besides factors successful weaker show successful equities and gold, trimming the terms by astir $3,200. That accommodation reflects a presumption that if banal and metallic markets struggle, Bitcoin won’t afloat decouple from broader hazard assets.
At the aforesaid time, increasing regulatory support and deeper links betwixt crypto and accepted concern should connection immoderate support.
ETF Demand Could Lift Bitcoin By $63,000
In the base‑case scenario, Citi adds the $63,000 from ETF flows to the $75,000 from idiosyncratic growth, past subtracts $3,200 for macro headwinds.
That mathematics lands the terms astatine astir $135,000 successful 2025. That fig is lone $12,000 supra the caller highest of $123,000. It suggests Citi sees much upside but not a runaway rally—at slightest not successful the basal case.
A Bull Case Of $199,000 Remains On The Table
If ETFs support pouring successful acold much than $15 cardinal and idiosyncratic maturation exceeds 20%, Bitcoin could ascent to $199,000 nether Citi’s bull case.
Conversely, a driblet to $64,000 is imaginable if macro conditions sour sharply. Globally, ETFs present clasp astir 1.48 cardinal BTC, worthy implicit $170 billion—about 7% of the full supply.
That level of organization backing is unprecedented. It shifts Bitcoin’s destiny much toward big‑money flows than axenic retail hype.
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